Economy
How do US companies, consumers bear Trump’s tariffs?
U.S. companies and consumers are bearing the brunt of the country’s sweeping import tariffs, targeting numerous goods, early indications show – in contrast with assertions by President Donald Trump –and complicating the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) fight against inflation.
Trump famously predicted that foreign countries would pay the price of his protectionist policies, wagering that exporters would absorb that cost just to keep a foothold in the world’s largest consumer market.
But academic studies, surveys and comments from businesses show that through the first months of Trump’s new trade regime, it is U.S. companies that are footing the bill and passing on some of it to the consumer, with more price hikes likely.
“Most of the cost seems to be borne by U.S. firms,” Harvard University professor Alberto Cavallo said in an interview to discuss his findings. “We have seen a gradual pass-through to consumer prices and there’s a clear upward pressure.”
A White House spokesperson said “Americans may face a transition period from tariffs,” but the cost would “ultimately be borne by foreign exporters.” Companies were diversifying supply chains and bringing production to the U.S., the spokesperson added.
Who is eating the tariffs?
Cavallo and researchers Paola Llamas and Franco Vasquez have been tracking the price of 359,148 goods, from carpets to coffee, at major online and brick-and-mortar retailers in the U.S.
They found that imported goods have become 4% more expensive since Trump started imposing tariffs in early March, while the price of domestic products rose by 2%.
The biggest increases for imports were seen in goods that the United States cannot produce domestically, such as coffee, or that come from highly penalized countries, like Türkiye.
These price hikes, while material, have been generally far smaller than the tariff rate on the products in question, implying that sellers were absorbing some of the cost as well.
Yet U.S. import prices, which don’t include tariffs, showed foreign exporters have been raising their prices in dollars and passing on to their U.S. buyers part of the greenback’s depreciation against their currencies.
“This suggests foreign producers are not absorbing much, if any, of the U.S. tariffs, consistent with prior economic research,” researchers at Yale University’s Budget Lab think-tank said in a blog post.
National indices of export prices paint the same picture. The cost of goods exported by China, Germany, Mexico, Türkiye and India has all risen, with Japan the only exception.
Full impact yet to be felt
Adapting to Trump’s tariffs – a still-incomplete set of levies that pushed import taxes from an average of around 2% to an estimated 17% – is still underway. It is seen taking months longer as exporters, importers and consumers jostle over who pays duties worth around $30 billion per month.
“We shouldn’t expect this to be a one-time jump but rather firms are trying to find ways to soften the blow,” and stretch price increases out over time, Cavallo added.
European carmakers have looked – so far – to absorb more of the price impact, but consumer firms, including Tide detergent-maker Procter & Gamble, Ray Ban-maker EssilorLuxottica and Swiss watchmaker Swatch, have hiked prices.
Around 72% of companies in Europe, the Middle East and Africa tracked by Reuters flagged price hikes since Trump’s trade salvoes started, a Reuters tracker shows. Only 18 companies have warned on profit margins.
Separate Reuters analyses of e-commerce websites Shein and Amazon were already showing robust price increases for Chinese products sold in the United States, ranging from clothing to electronics.
China’s so-called “anti-involution” policy, under which producers are encouraged to scale back competition and even cut capacity in key sectors, could add fuel to the fire by curbing the supply of goods such as solar-power equipment.
That has all set the scene for higher inflation in the U.S. The Fed cut its benchmark rate last month on concerns the job market was weakening, but policymakers are split over whether or not tariff-driven inflation will likely fade.
The Fed’s newest governor, Stephen Miran, on leave from the Trump administration, argues the tariffs are not inflationary and has brushed off concerns about what he called “relatively small changes in some goods prices.”
A Boston Fed “back of the envelope” calculation projected tariffs would push up core inflation by 75 basis points.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said tariffs accounted for perhaps 30-40 basis points of the latest core inflation reading of 2.9% but the effect should be “relatively short-lived.”
The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that inflation over the next year would be 1 percentage point higher than if tariffs hadn’t been raised, but would then fall back.
Global trade seen suffering
The rest of the world, however, has no reason to celebrate.
As U.S. consumers struggle to keep up with rising prices, demand for exports is likely to slow. An S&P Global survey of purchasing managers at companies all over the world showed new export orders contracting at an increasing pace since June.
European Union exports to the U.S. fell by 4.4% from the prior year in July, the latest month for which data was available, and in the bloc’s former powerhouse Germany, they were down 20.1% in August.
The World Trade Organization (WTO), too, slashed its forecast for global merchandise trade volume growth next year to just 0.5%, citing a delayed impact from U.S. tariffs. U.S. shipment data tracked by the German think tank, the Kiel Institute, also showed a clear downtrend.
While that all may partly reflect strong front-loading of orders earlier in the year in anticipation of tariffs, it is also prompting caution about the trade outlook.
Dutch bank ING expected a 17% reduction in EU goods exports to the U.S. over the next two years, costing the bloc 30 basis points of gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
“The expected impact of U.S. tariffs hasn’t materialized yet,” Ruben Dewitte, an economist at ING, said. “We anticipate these effects will become more visible in the coming months.”
Turkish contractors have undertaken 12,900 projects worth $570 billion across 139 countries, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said Friday, inviting European companies to expand their partnerships with Turkish firms.
Speaking at the European International Contractors (EIC) General Assembly in Istanbul, Bolat said the portfolio included completed and ongoing projects, with $520 billion of the total achieved over the past 23 years.
The sector began its overseas operations in Libya in 1972. Bolat said the Turkish companies have since completed more than 3,100 international technical consultancy projects worth $3.5 billion.
Forty-nine Turkish companies featured in Engineering News-Record’s 2025 ranking of the world’s top 250 international contractors, placing Türkiye second behind China, which had 71 firms.
Europe accounted for 40% of overseas contracts secured by Turkish contractors in 2025, Bolat said, citing projects in Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Poland and Romania.
He said the growing need to renew social housing, infrastructure, transport networks and buildings across Europe offered significant opportunities for cooperation.
“As Turkish contracting companies, we are ready to work with you and enter into partnerships,” Bolat said.
He also invited European businesses to invest in Türkiye, saying the country hosted 89,000 foreign-invested companies, 63% of them European.
“If you are not in Türkiye, you are not too late. We invite you to Türkiye,” he said.
Bolat said Türkiye has invested more than $300 billion in infrastructure over the past 23 years, expanding its ports, airports, roads, railways and logistics networks.
Amid regional wars, protectionism and supply chain disruptions, resilience has become as important as efficiency, he said.
Türkiye aims to become a center for production, trade, logistics, investment and connectivity, Bolat added.
Turkish prosecutors have identified 214 individuals and companies they say made a combined TL 187.65 billion ($3.8 billion) from three of the investment funds at the center of the country’s fund turmoil, according to a report Friday.
Authorities are now seeking to recover what they describe as unjust gains and return money to affected investors, the Sabah newspaper said.
Justice Minister Akın Gürlek told Sabah that the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office had passed the names to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF).
The TMSF has started notifying those on the list formally that the money must be returned. The recovered funds will be collected in accounts set up for investors who suffered losses.
Who made gains
According to the investigation file, the list includes 141 individuals and 73 companies. The individuals are reported to have each made more than TL 100 million, for a total of about 100.68 billion. The companies made almost TL 86.98 billion in total.
The gains came from funds managed by Tera, Pusula and Hedef Portföy, three of the seven management companies whose funds are being liquidated.
Tera funds generated approximately TL 28 billion in gains for 102 individuals and TL 62.1 billion for 38 companies, the report said.
Pusula funds yielded around TL 69.7 billion for 19 individuals and approximately TL 10 billion for 20 companies. Hedef Portföy funds generated nearly TL 3 billion for 20 individuals and TL 14.9 billion for 15 companies.
Focus on mid-September withdrawals
Authorities launched a sweeping investigation and market intervention last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
The Capital Markets Board (SPK) halted trading in more than 130 funds on Sept. 17. Nearly half a million investors have been affected.
Gürlek said investigators were looking especially closely at people who sold fund holdings and withdrew their money on Sept. 13, 14, 15 and 16.
Prosecutors’ examination found that these people withdrew in advance, acting on information given to them. Gürlek said the investigation was being widened in light of these findings.
Payments underway
Separately, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Thursday that 17 funds open to trading on the TEFAS electronic fund platform had been liquidated and that the money owed to about 43,000 fund investors had been deposited in the relevant banks.
Şimşek said comprehensive regulations were being introduced to prevent a repeat, and that further measures would be taken beyond the existing rules.
Meanwhile, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) was due Friday to submit draft legislation governing the liquidation of the funds.
The proposed temporary law aims to establish a legal framework for the liquidations, prioritize the protection of small investors and set rules for payments.
Under the proposal, authorities would adjust amounts invested in and withdrawn from the funds for inflation, with interim payments of up to TL 1 million per investor targeted for October.
The bill would also include provisions for recovering losses from those held responsible and establish a legal basis for extraordinary liquidation proceedings.
Real estate is among the assets that could be sold to raise funds for investor payments, with the legislation setting out how such assets would be liquidated and the proceeds distributed.
Türkiye and the European Space Agency (ESA) are reportedly holding talks to renew cooperation and develop joint orbital programs, an expert said Friday.
Gülin Dede, partnerships director at the nonprofit Space Renaissance International (SRI), said she had heard that discussions were underway and expressed optimism that they would lead to positive results and revive previous cooperation agreements between Ankara and the agency.
Dede, Türkiye’s first female analog astronaut who previously worked at ESA’s technology development center in the Netherlands, said European space officials were showing growing interest in expanding cooperation with Türkiye.
She also welcomed Türkiye’s signing of the Artemis Accords, an international framework for cooperation in civil space exploration.
Dede was speaking on the sidelines of the International Astronautical Congress (IAC) in the southern Antalya province, which she said helped raise Türkiye’s profile within the global space community.
“That this event is being held in Türkiye sends a wonderful message to the global space community and ecosystem, evident from the academic contribution of the delegates and their satisfaction with the expo, the evaluation of Turkish firms’ exhibits and presentations from other countries,” she said.
“I’m here myself as a committee member, and our work is progressing successfully,” she added.
Dede said ESA had “always sought cooperation with Türkiye” and stressed the importance of maintaining the momentum generated by the congress through sustained investment in the country’s space capabilities.
She also said greater participation by Turkish astronauts in international missions and activities could help strengthen Türkiye’s position as a partner in future space projects.
Dede urged Ankara to take a more active role in the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) and deepen its engagement with the U.N. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS).
Türkiye opened the Çerkezköy-Kapıkule section of its Halkalı-Kapıkule railway on Friday, extending the national high-speed network to the Bulgarian border.
The new section is 153 kilometres (95.07 miles) long. It starts at Çerkezköy, a town in Tekirdağ province in southeastern Thrace, west of Istanbul inside Europe. It ends at Kapıkule, Türkiye’s main rail and road border crossing with Bulgaria, near the city of Edirne in the country’s far northwest.
“With the launch of our project, a new era will begin, and we will see its effects across a wide range of areas,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the opening ceremony in Kırklareli province in northeastern Thrace. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos was also present.
Erdoğan said it would eventually serve as a boost to production, exports, employment, trade and tourism. “Our project will make a significant contribution to the Turkish economy,” he noted.
The new section is the longest part of the 229-kilometer Halkalı-Kapıkule project, which begins at Halkalı on Istanbul’s western edge. With the opening, Tekirdağ, Kırklareli and Edirne join the high-speed network.
Tekirdağ lies on the Sea of Marmara coast, Kırklareli in the northeast of Thrace along the Bulgarian border, and Edirne in the northwest corner where Türkiye meets both Bulgaria and Greece.
The line will connect not only continents but also Türkiye and the European Union, Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said.
“We will continue to work together to further advance our cooperation with the European Union on this project,” Uraloğlu added.
Greater capacity, faster journeys
The new line raises the number of Turkish provinces reached by high-speed rail to 14.
Erdoğan said the line will cut travel times sharply.
Passenger journeys between Halkalı and Kapıkule will fall from four hours to 1.5 hours, while freight transit will drop from 8.5 hours to 3.5.
Annual passenger capacity is expected to rise from 600,000 to about 3 million, and annual freight capacity from 1.5 million to 9.5 million tons, according to officials.
“This means that transportation will become faster, logistics will improve, and travel times will be reduced,” said Erdoğan.
The project also covers new station buildings at Babaeski, Lüleburgaz and Büyükkarıştıran, and the reconstruction of the Kapıkule and Edirne stations. Babaeski and Lüleburgaz are towns in Kırklareli province, and Büyükkarıştıran is a settlement in Lüleburgaz district, also in Kırklareli.
European link
Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu described the line as one of the most critical structures linking the Middle Corridor to Europe.
The Middle Corridor is the trade route connecting Asia and Europe through Central Asia, the Caucasus and Türkiye. Kapıkule, on the Bulgarian frontier, is where this line meets the European rail network. The project is designed for 200 kph passenger services and is part of the Trans-European Transport Networks.
The EU contributed to the financing. The 153-kilometer section was co-financed by the EU and Türkiye, while the remaining 76 kilometers of the Halkalı-Kapıkule route was built by the Transport and Infrastructure Ministry.
Uraloğlu acknowledged the EU’s role, saying the project was partly financed with EU pre-accession (IPA) funds.
Uraloğlu also placed the project within Türkiye’s wider rail expansion, saying the country has grown its rail network from 10,948 to 14,272 kilometers and built 2,604 kilometers of high-speed track from scratch.
Erdoğan said transportation investments have been at the top of the list of areas where he says they have propelled Türkiye forward over the past 24 years.
“During our time in office, the present-day value of our transportation investments has risen to $354 billion. Railways account for $80 billion of this total,” he noted.
Ukraine struck and partly disabled a data center operated by Russian technology company Yandex on Friday, a day after it hit a similar but more significant facility, widening the scope of its attacks against Russia after Moscow targeted data hubs inside Ukraine.
Yandex, which is heavily involved in Russia’s AI development and is sometimes called “Russia’s Google,” said its data center in the Kaluga region southwest of Moscow had been struck by Ukrainian drones and partly put out of action.
A day earlier, a Ukrainian attack shut down Yandex’s major data hub in Sasovo in the Ryazan region, where two of the three supercomputers used to develop the company’s AI model are housed. Yandex has said it is assessing the damage from that strike and cannot confirm whether the equipment can be restored.
Locked in an escalating and deadly war of attrition after more than four years of fighting, both Russia and Ukraine have expanded drone attacks this year on infrastructure targets, from energy facilities and refineries to ports and vessels carrying oil and grain, e-commerce warehouses and, most recently, data centers.
Yandex, whose apps have become an indispensable part of many Russians’ lives, said the attacks had struck at the core of its operations and that it was trying to keep its services going.
“Data centers are the iron heart of Yandex. Their operation is critical for services that have become part of people’s everyday lives. Millions of users check traffic and plan routes, listen to music, watch movies, order groceries and get answers to their questions,” it said in a statement.
“Our technology helps hundreds of thousands of companies run their businesses. They use it to take orders, serve customers and work with partners,” it said.
Yandex shares were the biggest faller on the Moscow exchange, down 3.75%.
“The risks involve not only the potential temporary unavailability of Yandex services and lost revenue in specific segments but also the company’s extensive base of B2B clients,” said Maryana Lazaricheva, head of equity research at T-Investments.
She said the company could redistribute some of the load to its other data centers. “However, if the chain of attacks continues, this possibility vanishes, which could lead to even more severe consequences.”
The full scale of the disruption caused by the attacks was not immediately clear, although messages appeared on at least one Yandex app warning of potential problems in its operation.
Yandex said it was working around the clock to try to restore services that had been disrupted.
“Right now this is our most important task, but unfortunately it is not an easy one,” it said in the same statement.
Tit-for-tat strikes
Russia has struck Ukrainian data centers and telecommunications infrastructure over the past month, including targets in central Kyiv.
“We always respond in mirror-like fashion,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Thursday. “You all know, they have been hitting and continue to hit our data centers. We are responding. I can’t share all the details.”
Ukraine has previously targeted the warehouses of specific companies inside Russia which it deems central to Russia’s economy, including e-commerce giants Wildberries and Ozon, which then prompted Russia to strike their Ukrainian equivalents.
Yandex operates five data centers, two of which have already been hit. Two of the other three are in the Moscow region, and another is in the Vladimir region, according to publicly available information.
Yandex said in 2021 that the Sasovo data hub, which was struck on Thursday, hosted two of its three supercomputers built around Nvidia A100 chips, which it uses to train its YandexGPT large AI model. Yandex has declined to say whether the supercomputers were affected by the attack.
Multiple online services in Russia reported technical issues on Thursday, including real estate aggregator Cian, a book portal called Litmarket, and the websites of Russian Railways and professional football club Spartak Moscow.
Previous Ukrainian attacks on Russia have led to fuel shortages and queues at petrol stations, losses for tens of thousands of small businesses involved in e-commerce, and higher inflation as rising fuel costs feed through to consumer prices.
Russian attacks on Ukrainian data centers have forced some of them to suspend operations after sustaining damage, while 100,000 households suffered temporary internet outages after one attack.
Ukraine’s digital minister told Reuters last month that the country was moving digital infrastructure underground in response to Russian attacks.
Turkish solar technology manufacturer Kalyon PV said Thursday it plans to establish a new production facility in the United States as part of its global expansion strategy, targeting direct sales to the U.S. market and seeking to benefit from incentives supporting domestic manufacturing.
The company announced the investment at an investor meeting held Wednesday at its integrated manufacturing complex in Ankara, where it outlined its domestic and international growth strategy, production and technological capabilities, financial outlook and future targets.
The meeting was hosted by Kalyon PV Chair Murathan Kalyoncu and attended by investors and analysts, who also toured the factory to observe the production process, from ingots and wafers to solar cells and panels.
Under the planned investment, Kalyon PV intends to establish a new manufacturing facility through a U.S.-based partnership in which it holds a majority stake. The company has completed the establishment of the U.S. entity, according to its statement.
The facility is expected to manufacture solar panels and other products for the solar energy industry in compliance with relevant U.S. regulations and domestic-content requirements. The company also plans to establish a sales and marketing operation in the country to serve the market directly.
U.S. incentives
The United States has become a key market in Kalyon PV’s international growth strategy amid accelerating solar energy investment, rising demand and incentive mechanisms designed to support domestic production.
U.S. targets to substantially expand installed solar capacity by 2035, alongside advantages offered to local manufacturers, provide the strategic basis for the investment, the company said.
Kalyon PV is working with a U.S.-based consultancy on tax, legal and investment matters. It expects to pursue federal tax incentives as well as economic development incentives offered at state and local levels.
‘New era’
Kalyoncu said the company aimed to take the manufacturing experience and capabilities it had developed in Türkiye into international markets.
“Since our establishment, we have manufactured panels to meet the needs of our industry, particularly for the Kalyon Karapınar Solar Power Plant, one of Europe’s largest and among the world’s leading solar power plants,” he said.
Kalyon PV had continuously invested in research and development, technology and human resources, Kalyoncu said, adding that these efforts had helped the company achieve a series of milestones.
“Today, we are entering a new era in which we will take the experience and manufacturing strength we have built in Türkiye to global markets,” he said. “The company we have established in the United States is an important step in our international growth strategy.”
Each new investment strengthens the company’s production capabilities, while each new market supports its global expansion strategy, Kalyoncu said.
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