As the conflict that rattled global markets and pushed the Gulf region to the brink of a ​wider war leaves behind the six-month mark, the tide may be slowly turning against Iran as Washington unleashes an unprecedented economic offensive to achieve what military force could not.

After years of surviving sanctions, Tehran is now confronting one of the harshest squeezes in the Islamic Republic’s history, according to ⁠Iranian insiders and regional sources.

A U.S. naval blockade and tougher sanctions ⁠are curbing oil exports, restricting access to foreign currency and exposing growing strains in the economy.

The campaign has led U.S. and regional officials to wager that mounting economic pressure can force Tehran to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which used to carry about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies prior to the conflict.

Their ​bet rests on a simple calculation: Iran is suffering more economic damage than it is inflicting.

Efforts to choke ​off oil ⁠exports have cut state revenues, while attempts to disrupt shipping through Hormuz have not triggered the global economic shock Tehran hoped would force Washington to compromise. Energy markets have adjusted and alternative supplies have continued to flow.

“The balance of power has tilted against Iran a bit,” said Iranian analyst Arash Azizi.

Iran is losing some of the leverage it had over the Strait of Hormuz because it has been unable to close it fully, he said, adding that the U.S. naval blockade was “really hitting Iran.”

Azizi said Tehran had expected disruption in the strait to trigger a major shock to the global economy and drive Washington back to the negotiating table.

“It hasn’t happened, really,” he said.

Other countries had adapted, exposing limits to Iran’s ability to inflict economic pain on the region and beyond.

Whether the pressure will force concessions remains unclear, the regional sources said. Tehran has failed to impose the costs it hoped would break Washington’s resolve but has shown little sign of abandoning demands for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and recognition of its security role in Hormuz.

Still, a new formula for resolving the standoff is now under discussion between mediators and Iran, the sources said.

Can Tehran outlast the squeeze?

Three senior Iranian ⁠sources acknowledged ⁠that Washington’s campaign is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand.

The latest measures have sharply restricted Tehran’s ability to access foreign currency, import goods and tap global financing networks that have helped keep the economy afloat.

Iranian leaders fear a worsening economy, marked by surging prices, weaker trade and pressure on household incomes, could reignite nationwide unrest that has repeatedly challenged the country.

Shortages of key imports, including fuel and wheat, are becoming an increasing concern, officials said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the strategy as a “one-two punch” combining the blockade with “the toughest sanctions in history.”

“It is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime,” he told CNBC.

For some U.S., Israeli and regional officials, such strains strengthen hopes that economic pressure could eventually carry political consequences inside Iran by triggering unrest, widening rifts within the leadership and weakening its grip on power.

Others remain sceptical that economic and military coercion will produce a political rupture, pointing to decades of failed efforts to destabilize it and ⁠Tehran’s willingness to suppress dissent. They argue Iran’s rulers may again prove more resilient than their adversaries expect.

The resilience test

Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator, said Washington may be interpreting Iran’s economic distress as evidence of strategic success when the reality is more complicated. Tehran remains determined to demonstrate it can control Hormuz, but appears to be calibrating its use of force while keeping further escalation in reserve.

The Revolutionary ​Guards may believe Iran can absorb the economic pain and outlast the pressure rather than compromise, Ross said.

“The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resiliency,” he added, ​saying he doubted economic and military pressure alone would force a retreat. Hardliners, he said, may believe they can endure and ultimately secure what they want.

Resilience may depend as much on public tolerance as Tehran’s ability to absorb economic hardship, said Burcu Özçelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

“Of course, ⁠the economic squeeze raises ‌the risk of public ‌unrest, but for now, a wartime mentality appears to have a significant hold over the population,” said Özçelik.

“Foreign military intervention, ⁠civilian casualties and the perception of a wider civilization confrontation with a U.S.-led order are sustaining a degree ‌of ‘Iran-first’ patriotic support, tolerance or simply patience with the regime.”

The result is a more stubborn impasse than Washington may have anticipated.

Economic pressure is deepening the pain, but Tehran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards may see endurance, backed by the ​threat of escalation, as leverage rather than a reason ⁠to concede.

The key question is not whether Iran is hurting, but whether it is hurting enough to compromise before either side slips ⁠toward another confrontation, the regional sources said.

Ross said the clearest path to a deal may lie in the dispute over shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz. ⁠

Iran could abandon any demand for a ​toll while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigational, security or environmental services, he said.

Such an arrangement could give both sides a claim to victory, allowing Tehran to step back without appearing to capitulate.

“If you could announce that the Strait were reopened,” Ross said, “I think Trump would do a deal.”

The European Union said Monday it was “looking into” an incident revealed last week during which thousands of autonomous AI agents built by OpenAI defied their instructions and took over a German website.

The agents – AI programs that work on their own, without a person guiding each step – left about 18,000 messages on DSEwiki, a German-language site for programmers that anyone can edit, much like Wikipedia.

They used it to swap answers to test questions and to share tricks for slipping the digital fences meant to contain them, according to research released Friday.

The EU is “fully aware of the incident,” said the bloc’s digital spokesperson Thomas Regnier.

“We have indeed received an incident report,” he told reporters. “We’re looking into it, but we remain, in any case, in very close contact with the company.”

“We have seen many losses of control recently. We take this extremely seriously, and we’re monitoring the situation closely,” Regnier said.

Under the EU’s AI rules, providers must assess and mitigate the risks stemming from their systems, and since August, regulators have the power to impose fines for breaches.

The latest incident comes after OpenAI said in July that two of its models escaped their confined testing environment and gained access to the internet, where they found and attacked Hugging Face, a site that AI developers use to store and share code.

The Daily Sabah Newsletter

Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.

SIGN ME UP

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

EU chief Ursula von der Leyen unveiled plans on Monday for some 200 million euros ($232 million) in Greenland investments amid a push for closer ties with the Danish ⁠Arctic territory, which U.S. President Donald Trump had earlier insisted should ⁠belong to the United States.

Von der Leyen arrived in Greenland on Sunday for a two-day visit serving as a show of support for the governments of Greenland and Denmark, which have ​strongly rebuffed Trump’s campaign to acquire the world’s largest island.

The head of the ​27-nation ⁠European Union’s executive body said the EU money would focus on sectors including critical minerals, satellite communications and renewable energy in Greenland, a semi-autonomous part of the Danish realm.

“The EU stands in full solidarity with the Kingdom of Denmark and the people of Greenland,” von der Leyen told a news conference.

“We will continue to do so.”

Von der Leyen’s visit reflects the increasing geopolitical importance of the Arctic to major powers, such as the U.S., Russia, China and Europe, as melting ice opens new shipping routes to make the region’s mineral wealth more accessible.

Trump’s push to acquire Greenland sparked crisis

The European Commission chief, who took a boat trip on Sunday in a fjord scattered with chunks of ice, had earlier posted on X how she was struck by ⁠Greenland’s ⁠stunning landscapes, but aware of the “visible scars of climate change.”

“As the ice melts, a new reality is taking shape,” she wrote.

U.S. President Trump sparked a crisis in U.S.-European ties and turmoil within the transatlantic NATO military alliance this year when he stepped up his demands for the U.S. to control Greenland, arguing that fellow NATO member Denmark could not defend it.

European officials stressed Greenland is part of NATO territory, meaning it is covered by the alliance’s mutual defense pact, and that the U.S. already has the right to increase its military presence there under a long-standing treaty.

Tensions lowered after Trump and NATO boss Mark Rutte agreed in Davos ⁠in January that the U.S., Denmark and Greenland would begin talks to resolve their differences and NATO would step up its role in Arctic security.

However, the trilateral talks have yet to yield an agreement and at a NATO summit in Türkiye in ​July, Trump restated his insistence that the U.S. should control Greenland.

‘Tectonic plates of geopolitics collide’

Von der Leyen said Greenland’s ​future was for the people of Greenland and Denmark to decide and no one else.

“The Arctic has become one of the places where the tectonic plates of geopolitics collide. We have a ⁠direct stake ‌in what happens here,” ‌she said, adding that her Commission would set out a new EU ⁠Arctic strategy in the coming months.

While Denmark is a member ‌of the EU, Greenland left the bloc in 1985. But its people, as Danish citizens, are also citizens of the EU.

The EU has ​long provided funding to Greenland, mainly to ⁠pay for fishing rights and support its education system. The €200 million package represents not ⁠only a big increase in funding but a broadening of the sectors that will receive EU cash, according ⁠to EU officials.

The Commission has ​also proposed more than doubling EU funding for Greenland from 225 million euros in its current seven-year budget to 530 million euros for the period between 2028 and 2034.

The Daily Sabah Newsletter

Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.

SIGN ME UP

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Canada confirmed Monday that retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports will take effect early Tuesday, marking a fresh escalation in the deepening trade dispute between the neighboring countries.

Canada’s Finance Ministry confirmed the measures in response to an enquiry from dpa.

Tariffs of up to 50% will apply to U.S. imports worth C$27.6 billion ($20 billion), including steel and aluminium products, household appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper products, and electronics.

The move follows the breakdown of trade talks between Washington and Ottawa.

In August, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 50% on around $20 billion worth of Canadian goods, including ice hockey sticks, furniture, honey and wine, prompting Canada to announce retaliatory measures.

The Daily Sabah Newsletter

Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.

SIGN ME UP

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

Latvia’s government ​announced plans to impose a tariff of up to staggering 300% on grain ⁠arriving from Russia ⁠and Belarus, according to the country’s Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs ​on Monday.

Officials ​in Latvia ⁠and neighboring Lithuania last week said they considered ending shipments of Russian grain through their ports after Moscow stepped up the transits in response to attacks by Ukraine on its Baltic ports.

Russian exporters ⁠are ⁠moving grain via Latvia, an EU and NATO member, to other markets, analysts and traders have said.

A ban or high tariffs could cut off a key alternative ⁠at a time when Black Sea and Azov Sea routes have been ​paralyzed by Ukrainian drone strikes.

Russia exported 46.3 ​million metric tons of grain via ports in ⁠the ‌Sea ‌of Azov and ⁠the Black Sea ‌in the last exporting season covering the period from July ​2025 to June ⁠this year, which accounted for ⁠90% of total Russian seaborne ⁠grain exports, ​industry data shows.

The Daily Sabah Newsletter

Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.

SIGN ME UP

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

The U.S. embargo on Cuba resulted in a “record” loss of over $8 billion for the battered island between March last year and February this year, according to a government report presented Monday as the country is going through a severe economic crisis.

Cuba has been under a U.S. trade embargo since 1962, with President Donald Trump piling on pressure on top of the decades-old measure since early this year.

The damages set out in the report exceed last year’s peak by 7%, said Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez.

The figure “does not include the damage from the energy blockade” imposed by Washington in January “nor the damage from secondary sanctions” imposed on Cuban entities in May, the minister added.

“The blockade does not punish a government; it punishes the daily life of a people in all its aspects,” Rodriguez said.

Havana blames the crisis on an array of U.S.-imposed punitive measures, while Washington attributes the hardship to poor internal management.

Living conditions on the island are severe, with residents enduring regular rolling blackouts and chronic food and fuel shortages on a daily basis.

Rodriguez pointed to an increase in infant mortality, from four per 1,000 births in 2018 to 9.9 in 2025, as evidence of deteriorating standards.

He ruled out declaring a humanitarian crisis, however, and praised what he called Cuban solidarity in the face of difficulty.

The minister said Cuban authorities remain in contact with the U.S. State Department but ruled out any normalization of ties.

Cuba remains willing to continue engaging in dialogue “despite the lack of progress” and “lack of willingness” on the part of the U.S., he said.

The Daily Sabah Newsletter

Keep up to date with what’s happening in Turkey,
it’s region and the world.

SIGN ME UP

You can unsubscribe at any time. By signing up you are agreeing to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.