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An intelligence look at the terror-free Türkiye process: Will in Imrali and weapons in Qandil!

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The statement from Kandil on the first anniversary of the PKK’s dissolution congress on 5-7 May 2025 clearly revealed this fact. KCK Executive Council Member Mustafa Karasu and KCK Presidential Council Member Sozdar Avesta appeared in front of the cameras with the members of the armed organization and announced that they changed the name of the organization to “Apoist Movement Management”. However, the striking point was this: While the new name was announced, the old KCK titles continued to be used. So the name had changed, but the structure, staff and weapons remained in the same place.

THE MAIN MESSAGE GIVEN BY KANDIL

In fact, the message Kandil gave was quite clear. Abdullah Öcalan is considered the natural leader of the organization, but the control of the weapons and the schedule of the process were wanted to be kept in the hands of Kandil. The moral authority of Imrali was recognized, but the operational will was not left to the process and Öcalan.

On the contrary, Ankara is following a clear sequence. According to the information I have obtained from the sources of the Ministry of Intelligence and Justice, the state has made its decision: First the weapons will be laid down, then the law will come into effect. At the center of the process will be MİT’s detection and confirmation mechanism. For the state’s mind, the main issue is no longer words, but concrete data on the field.

The draft law prepared by the Ministry of Justice has two main pillars. The first of these is the return of members of the organization who are not involved in crime, and the second is how the disarmament process will be managed technically. MİT’s detection and verification system was discussed in detail at the Cabinet’s May 4 meeting. The meeting held by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli in the Social Complex showed that the political consensus on the Ankara front still continues.

THE FORMULA OF THE STATE IS NET

The person who formulated this framework most clearly was Devlet Bahçeli. The sentences used by Bahçeli in the Turkish Grand National Assembly group meeting clearly revealed the ranking of the state. Bahçeli said that Abdullah Öcalan’s legal situation can only be evaluated after the dissolution of the organization with all its elements and the delivery of weapons. So Ankara’s formula was clear: First termination, then delivery, then the legal process will begin.

The “Peace Process and Politicization Coordination” model proposed by Bahçeli is also based on the same ranking logic. In this model, no status discussion is opened without laying down weapons. The sentence “Türkiye without terrorism is not surrender, it is not compromise, it is not bargaining” describes the red line of the state itself.

However, Kandil’s statements argue the opposite. The most critical part of Mustafa Karasu’s statement was this: “Linking legal steps to laying down arms does not reflect the truth.” This sentence is actually a direct objection to Ankara’s model. Because Qandil is still trying to impose the “law first, then weapons” formula.

But even the statement itself contains a serious contradiction. On the one hand, it is said that “we have withdrawn our armed forces beyond the border”, and on the other hand, the statements are made with armed cadres. Even this image is enough to show the organization’s true intentions regarding weapons.

IMRALI WILL QANDIL PRACTICE

The sentence “Öcalan should manage disarmament”, used by KCK Member Murat Karayılan at the PKK 12th Congress, seems at first glance to be a commitment to the İmralı will. However, intelligence officers read between the lines differently. Kandil actually implicitly says: “Öcalan is the leader, but we also have control of the weapon.” The real knot of the process occurs right here.

Because Öcalan’s call for February 27, 2025 is still on the table today. However, Kandil wants to decide alone how the call will be reflected on the field. This is exactly the point that Ankara does not trust.

One of the invisible but most critical details of the process was that the DEM delegation could not establish direct contact with Öcalan for about a month. This is not an ordinary technical problem. Because the will coming from İmralı gives Kandil time and bargaining space every day that he cannot reach the field directly.

As a matter of fact, it is noteworthy that Karayılan’s interview with the organization’s ANF broadcast on April 30 and Karasu’s statement on May 5 coincided with the same period. One speaks from the military wing, the other from the political wing, one after the other, but repeats the same discourse. This shows the intelligence officers that a coordinated line of resistance has formed within the organization.

FOR THE FIRST TIME DEM IS THIS POLITICALLY DARE!

Another statement that made this picture even more remarkable came from DEM Co-Chairman Tuncer Bakırhan. Bakırhan clearly stated that they support the framework put forward by Bahçeli. More importantly, he directly rejected Qandil’s “Middle East is boiling” thesis.

Bakırhan’s following sentence was quite critical: “If regulations are made for democratic politics and the PKK does not do what is necessary, we will be the first to criticize.”

This statement shows for the first time in such a sharp and bold way that there is a clear distance between DEM and Kandil that has not been seen in a long time.

PKK’S INVISIBLE ECONOMIC BACKNESS

There are three basic calculations behind Karasu and Karayılan’s statements. The first is to keep bargaining. The second is to reposition the PKK within the regional equation. The third is to preserve the economic order, that is, the status quo, of the structure, which is nearly fifty years old.

As a journalist who has been closely following the European leg of the PKK since 2007, I can clearly say that the shell company chains stretching from Luxembourg to Rotterdam, from Paris to Brussels, constituted the invisible economic backbone of the organization. For the PKK elite monks, weapons are not only an ideological tool, but also the main center of the economic and organizational order.

The structure, which extends from drug trafficking to the pressure on the European Kurdish diaspora to black money networks operating through restaurants and front companies, still constitutes the main power of the organization today. Karayılan’s statement “our security is our weapons” is actually the code for the continuation of this black economic order.

2015 WILL NOT BE ALLOWED A REPEAT

The tension within the organization is becoming increasingly visible. It is known that there were serious conflicts in the upper management during the decision to terminate the PKK at the 12th Congress. The latest statements of Karasu and Karayılan should be read as a reflection of this internal struggle.

Senior managers of the intelligence agency now read this picture differently. Because for the state, the issue is not just organizational statements, but real data experienced in the field. This was the main reason for the breakdown in the 2013-2015 peace process. At that time, Qandil calculated the conjuncture, put the gun on the table again with the dream of establishing a new state in Syria, and the process collapsed.

This time, the state mind does not want to return to the same ground again. For this reason, preparations for the law are progressing together with the intelligence and military double verification system.

It is also noteworthy that in Mustafa Karasu’s statement, non-organizational names such as Osman Kavala and Can Atalay, other than Selahattin Demirtaş, were brought to the agenda. Because these topics are put forward as part of the political bargaining area, not the direct disarmament process.

Ankara’s approach is very clear here too. Öcalan’s physical conditions or political arrangements will only be evaluated after the complete disarmament and surrender.

THE CRITICAL QUESTION IS NOW!

At this point today, the critical question is: Does Kandil really not want to read the process, or is he trying to keep a new armed ground open in a controlled manner?

Because there is a third space in the middle that is getting narrower.

One of the clearest facts that my nearly twenty years of field observation has shown me is this: It has not been possible for an independent Kurdish politics to gain ground in Türkiye without breaking Qandil’s armed tutelage. Many political figures, from Leyla Zana to Hatip Dicle, from Dicle to Selahattin Demirtaş, experienced the harsh impact of this shadow in different periods.

I can say this: What is remarkable today is that both Öcalan and the DEM administration are so openly approaching unarmed politics for the first time. The resisting structure seems to be the old tutelage reflex in Qandil.

THE STATE IS NOW MEASURING THE FIELD

As a result, the state’s position is now clear. Weapons will be released unconditionally. MIT’s detection and confirmation mechanism in the field will work predictably. As for the legal process, the whole process will come into play in a planned manner, step by step, when the specified order comes.

The fate of this process will no longer be determined by Ankara’s statements, but by Kandil’s real decision on the field.

Last word: The state will no longer measure the words floating in the air, but the field clearly.



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BREAKING NEWS: Illegal betting operation in Hatay: MASAK report detected huge transaction volume! Exactly 2.2 billion TL…

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Following the instruction of the Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek to combat illegal betting and virtual gambling, the operations came one after another. While 10 of the 22 suspects who were detained in simultaneous raids in 5 provinces centered in Hatay were arrested, MASAK reports detected approximately 2.2 billion liras in money traffic.

In his first week in office, Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek sent a circular to the Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office of 81 provinces to combat illegal betting and virtual gambling. In the published circular, it was emphasized that the fight against “illegal betting” and “virtual gambling” should be continued with determination until the end. Minister Gürlek’s words were reflected in the field. With consecutive operations carried out all over Türkiye, ‘illegal betting’ and ‘virtual gambling’ gangs were put to rest.

ACCOUNT ACTIVITIES HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATED
In this context, an operation was organized in 5 provinces centered in Hatay in the illegal betting investigation carried out under the coordination of the Hatay Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office. Within the scope of the project work carried out by the Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office for the crimes of “Violation of the Law on the Regulation of Betting and Games of Chance in Football and Other Sports Competitions” and “Establishing an organization for the purpose of committing a crime”, the illegal betting activities of the suspects were examined through technical monitoring and account movements.

THEY PLACED BETS IN THE OFFICE

In the account movements included in the MASAK report, approximately 2.2 billion lira of money inflow and outflow belonging to the suspects was detected. As a result of technical monitoring and financial investigations, it was determined that the suspects were placing illegal bets in 2 separate offices.

SIMULTANEOUS OPERATION IN 5 PROVINCES

Within the scope of the investigation, a simultaneous operation was organized on April 30, centered in Hatay, and in the provinces of Mersin, Antalya, Diyarbakır and Istanbul. A total of 22 suspects were caught and detained during the operation.

VEHICLES WERE ALSO SEIZED

During the searches at the addresses, a lot of digital materials, bank cards and credit cards belonging to the suspects were seized. In addition, measures were taken against 1 2021 model Audi brand vehicle, 1 2024 model Citroen brand vehicle and 1 2024 model CFMOTO brand motorcycle, within the scope of the income considered to be obtained from crime.

10 PEOPLE WERE ARRESTED

20 of the suspects, who were referred to the courthouse after their procedures at the police station, were brought to court with a request for arrest. While 10 of the suspects were arrested, judicial control measures in the form of house arrest were imposed on 10 people. Two suspects were released by the decision of the prosecutor’s office.


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Musa Talha Demirel – Editor



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Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Çiftçi met with EU Commissioner Šuica

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Minister of Internal Affairs Mustafa Çiftçi received the European Commission’s Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Suica.

Türkiye’S MEDIATION ACTIVITIES

During the meeting, regional and global developments were discussed comprehensively. The constructive role of Türkiye in international crises was underlined, and the importance of mediation activities between the parties and its initiatives to prevent food shortages, such as the grain shipment from Ukraine, was emphasized.

Türkiye IS AN EXAMPLE TO THE WORLD IN MIGRATION MANAGEMENT

At the meeting, it was stated that the model put forward by Türkiye in migration management is an example in the international arena. Cooperations developed with the countries that source migration, practices to increase border security and comprehensive work carried out in the fight against irregular migration were highlighted.
During the meeting, the possible migration movement originating from Iran was evaluated and it was stated that no significant intensity has been observed yet and that caution should be exercised in case the crisis deepens.

CALL FOR A JOINT STOP IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERROR

In the meeting, it was also pointed out that a wave of migration could affect not only the countries in the region but also a wider geography, especially Europe. Regarding the fight against terrorism, it was stated that some terrorist organizations should not be allowed to use Northern and Western Europe as a logistics center by abusing the area of ​​rights and freedoms, and that members of terrorist and organized crime organizations should be prevented from abusing asylum mechanisms.


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Muhammed Emin Akyıldırım – Editor



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Last Minute | Serdar Mutta was elected as YSK President

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According to the breaking news; 6 members elected as YSK members by the General Assemblies of the Supreme Court and the Council of State took the oath and started their duties today.

Following the oath ceremony, an election was held to determine the YSK President and Deputy Chairman, whose term ends at 16.00. In the election, Serdar Mutta was elected instead of YSK President Ahmet Yener. Deputy Chairman was İsmail Kalender.

WHO IS SERDAR MUTTA?

He was born on January 1, 1974 in Kırıkhan/Hatay. He graduated from Kırıkhan High School, and after graduating from Istanbul University Faculty of Law in 1995, he did his military service as a Military Judge in Konak/Izmir.

MUTTA, who started his career as a candidate judge in Beyoğlu/Istanbul; He served as Hüyük, Uzundere, Türkoğlu Judgeships and Justice Inspector, Ministry of Justice Personnel Department Head, Enforcement and Bankruptcy Services Department Head, HSYK Deputy Secretary General and High Advisor to the Ministry of Justice, respectively.

MUTTA, who was elected as a member of the Supreme Court of Appeals on July 16, 2018, was continuing his duty as a member of the Twelfth Civil Chamber of the Supreme Court of Appeals.
He completed his master’s degree with his thesis titled “Supervision of the Administration and Ombudsman System” at Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Public Law, on March 7, 2001, and completed his PhD study with his thesis titled “Judicial Control in Criminal Procedure Law” at the Near East University Graduate Education Institute, Department of Public Law, on June 5, 2021. He speaks English and his work titled Supervision of Administration and Ombudsman System has been published in Kazancı Publications. He is married and the father of four children.



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Minister Gürlek announced: “Rojin Kabaiş’s phone will be sent to China”

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Minister Gürlek announced: Rojin Kabaiş's phone will be sent to China

“We are a young girl in the prime of her life, whose future, hopes and dreams have been left unfinished. We, as the state, will pursue this matter to the end. We are trying to do whatever we can. This is the purpose of establishing this unit. To go to the end, especially in unsolved murders. While our sister Rojin is a young girl in the prime of her life, it is not clear whether the incident is murder or suicide? We need to solve this. This is our subject anyway, the prosecutor’s office must determine this. Suicide or murder. You, as the family, “You think it was murder. Of course, all aspects of this matter need to be investigated to the smallest detail.” Stating that his wife is also from Van, Minister Gürlek emphasized that he will pay close attention to the family and do whatever the state can do.

Minister Gürlek announced: Rojin Kabaiş's phone will be sent to China

“WE TRUST OUR STATE AND JUSTICE”

Father Nizamettin Kabaiş also thanked Minister Gürlek for his interest and support and said, “We always trust, our state, you, justice. We are very hopeful.” Kabaiş said, “My daughter was very innocent,” and asked for the perpetrators of the incident to be identified. At the end of the meeting, Minister Gürlek said that the issues brought to the attention of the family and lawyers will be carefully examined by the relevant department. Deputy Minister of Justice Can Tuncay, Ministry of Justice General Director of Criminal Affairs Hazım Aslancı and Deputy Director General of Criminal Affairs Ömer Demirci also attended the meeting.

Minister Gürlek announced: Rojin Kabaiş's phone will be sent to China

WHAT HAPPENED?

Rojin Kabaiş, a first-year student at Van Yüzüncüyıl University Child Development Department, disappeared in Van on September 27, 2024, and Kabaiş’s body was found 18 days later on the shore of Molla Kasım village of Lake Van. In the first examination, it was determined that there were no sharp or gunshot wounds on his body and there were no bone fractures. Van Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office continues its investigation into the incident. Investigations regarding the death of Rojin Kabaiş, which is among the files being worked on by the Unsolved Crimes Investigation Department established within the General Directorate of Criminal Affairs of the Ministry of Justice, continue.


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Serhat Kandiloğlu – Editor



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Serdar Mutta was elected as YSK President

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YSK President Serdar Mutta said, “The Supreme Electoral Board will continue to fulfill the duties assigned to it by the Constitution and the law, in complete impartiality and independence, as it has done so far. We received the flag today. We will try to fulfill this duty in the best way possible, in line with the rule of law and constitutional principles. We will do our best to ensure that all election processes are carried out in a transparent manner within the legal framework, from the beginning to the end of the elections. On this occasion, we wish that the election held today in our board will be beneficial to our nation, Turkish democracy and our entire election organization.” “I thank you all endlessly,” he said.

Ahmet Yener, whose term of office has expired, said, “As of today, the term of office of me and 5 of our friends has ended. On behalf of all my fellow board members, I convey my good wishes to the President Serdar Mutta and our Deputy Chairman İsmail Kalander, who were elected today. I also wish the next period to be beneficial to our board members who took the oath and started their duties today. I thank all of you for the patience you have shown us. I hope the results will be beneficial to the Turkish nation, Turkish democracy and our political parties.”

WHO IS SERDAR MUTTA?

Serdar Mutta was born on January 1, 1974 in Hatay Kırıkhan. Mutta, who graduated from high school in Hatay, completed his military service as a military judge in Konak, Izmir, after graduating from Istanbul University Faculty of Law in 1995. Mutta, who started his career as a candidate judge in Beyoğlu, Istanbul; He served as Hüyük, Uzundere, Türkoğlu Judgeships and Justice Inspector, Ministry of Justice Personnel Department Head, Enforcement and Bankruptcy Services Department Head, HSYK Deputy Secretary General and High Advisor to the Ministry of Justice, respectively. Mutta was elected as a member of the Supreme Court of Appeals on July 16, 2018.


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Halil İbrahim Ğlkü – Editor



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Minister Gürlek met with Çağla Tuğaltay’s family!

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According to the statement made by the Ministry, Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek met with Tuğaltay’s mother Gülnur Saygı Tuğaltay, her older brother İlker Tuğaltay and the family’s lawyers at the Ministry of Justice. During the meeting, Gürlek expressed his condolences to the family and said, “There is a murder here. The state must solve this murder and address it. Especially the death of a young brother in the prime of his life is the responsibility of the state.” he said.
Emphasizing that, as a state, they will solve these murders and that all means will be mobilized, Gürlek said: “If there is a crime, there is definitely a perpetrator. It is our duty to solve it. In these cases, evidence must be collected as soon as possible. Just because it was not collected then, does not mean that it will not be collected now. Every trace, finding and data deemed suspicious should be re-evaluated with today’s technology and conditions.”

Minister Gürlek met with Çağla Tuğaltay's family!

“DNA OF THE 12 PEOPLE WHO ENTERED THE BUILDING WILL BE EXAMINED”

Gürlek stated that the Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office found it appropriate to make a “fethi grave” for the 4 people who were suspected of Çağla Tuğaltay’s murder and lost their lives, upon the request of the family, and also stated that DNA samples could be taken for new suspects. Gürlek stated that the DNA analysis of the 12 people who entered the building later would be conducted, and that the homicide bureau teams at the time would be interviewed and the investigation authorities would evaluate whether they had any other evidence. Referring to the newly established Unsolved Crimes Investigation Department, Gürlek said:

Minister Gürlek met with Çağla Tuğaltay's family!

“We are not an investigation authority, we do not have the authority to give instructions to judges and prosecutors. Our friends are professionals in this field, our friends in the unit we established, the general manager, the deputy general manager and the head of department, are professionals. We look at it from a different perspective. In order to accelerate and resolve the process, we investigate what kind of technical opportunities we have at all institutions of the state and ensure that the relevant institutions are put at the service of the investigation authorities. It is entirely at the discretion of the investigation authorities to employ the relevant institutions in this regard and appreciate the necessity of the procedures.”



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