Economy
Argentina sees monthly inflation dipping to 5-year low
Argentina’s monthly inflation dropped to 1.5% in May, its lowest level in five years, a positive sign for President Javier Milei’s aggressive austerity campaign aimed at reining in runaway prices.
Annual inflation came in at 43.5% in May, the INDEC statistics agency reported Thursday, down from 211% at the end of 2023 but still one of the highest rates in the world.
The monthly rate was down from 2.8% in April.
Milei, a self-declared “anarcho-capitalist,” came to power in December 2023, wielding a chainsaw as a symbol of his plan to restore fiscal discipline and rein in inflation.
Last year, Argentina recorded its first budget surplus in a decade thanks to austerity cuts, but the collateral damage was a loss of purchasing power, jobs, and consumer spending.
Milei’s government hailed the May figure, which it attributed to a “successful orthodox stabilization plan” that included a recent loosening of exchange controls.
The INDEC said May monthly price rises were boosted mainly by telephone and internet costs (up 4%), restaurants and hotels (3%) and health expenses (2.7%).
The lowest increase was for transport (0.4%), followed by food and non-alcoholic beverages (0.5 %).
The positive numbers will do little to quell the anger of Argentines over their loss in purchasing power, with wages having remained stagnant over many months of high inflation.
“Prices are not dropping; they are rising,” Cristian Rodriguez, a 45-year-old logistics employee, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“Everything edible is going up,” he added.
In April, Argentina received $12 billion as the first disbursement of an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan worth $20 billion, marking a strong vote of confidence in Milei’s economic program.
When the loan deal was announced, the IMF said it was built on “the authorities’ impressive early progress in stabilizing the economy, underpinned by a strong fiscal anchor, that is delivering rapid disinflation and a recovery in activity and social indicators.”
Success in curbing prices is the result of an austerity program that entailed firing tens of thousands of public sector workers, halving the number of government ministries and vetoing inflation-aligned pension increases.
Europe needs to reconsider its trade relations with China as the imbalance between the two sides continues to grow, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China warned on Tuesday, marking the latest in a series of statements highlighting the gap.
“I think what concerns us (is) that if you see these movements here it gives rise to some fundamental questions about trade,” the organization’s president Jens Eskelund said in Beijing.
Trade, when done right, creates value and efficiency, he said. “But if you are in a situation suddenly where trade is only creating value for one party and not the other, then of course the question becomes: why trade?”
Eskelund pointed to China’s trade surplus with Europe, estimated at around 1 billion euros ($1.15 billion) a day. The chamber has also long criticized competitive conditions in China.
According to Eskelund, the issue is not only whether European companies can succeed in China, but also whether the broader trade relationship remains stable.
“There needs to be a win also for Europe, and that’s what we need to get to,” he said.
Eskelund said there was growing agreement in Europe over the challenge China poses to European industry.
He also warned that China may not yet fully understand that attitudes are changing in Europe in a way that could ultimately allow it to take action.
Brussels and Beijing are currently negotiating over trade disputes, with possible solutions expected in October. New EU tariffs have also been discussed.
In a new position paper containing 1,096 policy recommendations, the chamber, which represents more than 1,600 EU companies operating in China, said some of the security concerns harboured in Beijing and Brussels were similar.
The EU is also developing a policy framework aimed at safeguarding its autonomy, industrial resilience and competitiveness, the report said.
A “healthy balance” between areas where economic security is a priority and those where greater openness for businesses is possible could benefit both economies, it added.
Türkiye expects to see its total trade with the U.S. surging by more than 10% this year to the level of around $42 billion to $43 billion, a top official said on Monday, reiterating the long-term goal of $100 billion.
“Our bilateral trade volume exceeded $38 billion last year. This year, we expect our total bilateral trade to increase by more than 10% and reach approximately $42 billion-$43 billion,” Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said during an address in New York.
“This means that annual trade between the two countries will reach $50 billion within two years,” he added.
Bolat was speaking during a reception hosted by the Türkiye-U.S. Business Council (TAIK) of the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) as part of the 19th Türkiye Investment Conference.
The reception, held at the New York Public Library, was attended by Bolat, Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Fatih Karahan, DEIK head Nail Olpak, and TAIK chair Murat Özyeğin, as well as representatives of the business communities from Türkiye and the U.S.
Speaking at the event, Bolat said that the U.S. is Türkiye’s third-largest trading partner in terms of exports and fourth-largest in terms of imports.
Recalling that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and U.S. President Donald Trump have set a target of increasing bilateral trade to $100 billion, Bolat said that the two countries are on the right path to achieving this goal in the medium to long term.
Bolat said that the trade performance between the two countries demonstrates the depth and resilience of their economic relationship, adding that cooperation is not limited to trade.
He noted that the two countries are continuing to deepen cooperation in the fields of energy, defense, and technology, and said that “promising” figures have also been achieved in terms of mutual investments.
Bolat said that investments do not merely bring capital to countries in both directions, but also create significant added value through technology transfer, innovation, employment, and production.
He said these investments create jobs both in Türkiye and the U.S., adding that investments between the two countries strengthen supply chains on both sides of the Atlantic.
Emphasizing that Türkiye-U.S. economic relations are built on mutual trust rooted in decades of alliance, Bolat said they are determined to further strengthen this foundation and are exploring new areas of partnership.
Özyeğin, who noted that next year will mark the 100th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Türkiye and the U.S., said that as with all longstanding partnerships, “the foundation of this strength lies in dialogue, trust, and the determination to continue building together.”
“Throughout this conference, our goal is precisely to do that: deepen our dialogue, establish new connections, and identify new opportunities for the two business communities to work together,” he said.
On the first day of the conference, a meeting titled “Türkiye’s Economic Outlook and Investment Opportunities” was held with the participation of Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and CBRT Governor Karahan.
In addition, the Turkish industry minister met with American business leaders at a roundtable discussion on “Industry and High Technology.”
The events, organized to increase trade and investment between Türkiye and the U.S., are set to run over three days, from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23.
Türkiye’s economy remains strong and resilient despite difficult global conditions and regional conflict, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek told U.S. investors Monday, highlighting low debt, rising reserves and reduced external vulnerabilities.
Şimşek and Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Governor Fatih Karahan attended a meeting on Türkiye’s economic outlook and investment opportunities during the Türkiye Investment Conference, organized by the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK) Türkiye-U.S. Business Council in New York.
Şimşek said Türkiye’s low overall debt burden, fiscal policy space, declining external vulnerabilities, rising international reserves and the exit from the foreign exchange-protected Turkish lira deposit scheme, known as KKM, had strengthened the economy’s ability to withstand shocks.
“Our economy is resilient to shocks. Our low overall debt-to-GDP ratio, our fiscal flexibility, declining external vulnerabilities, rising international reserves, and the phase-out of the KKM have all contributed to our economy’s resilience,” the minister was cited as saying by Anadolu Agency (AA).
The meeting focused on the road map outlined in the government’s recently announced Medium-Term Program (MTP), Türkiye’s investment environment and opportunities across key sectors. Karahan also discussed monetary policy and the macroeconomic outlook.
Investment opportunities
Şimşek highlighted Türkiye’s manufacturing and services base, strategic location, infrastructure and skilled workforce as factors supporting its position as a reliable supplier.
“Türkiye is a large economy that is growing strongly compared with its peers,” he said.
He noted the government was accelerating green and digital transformation, industrial transformation and investments in productive infrastructure, while recently announced tax incentives were intended to strengthen the investment and export environment.
He identified defense, tourism, health tourism and digital services exports, including television series and mobile games, as areas offering significant opportunities.
The defense industry is also an important driver of the transformation of Türkiye’s manufacturing sector, Şimşek said.
The meeting also highlighted opportunities in advanced manufacturing, defense and aerospace, health care, logistics and transportation, digital technologies, green and digital transformation and access to regional markets.
Türkiye seeks high-tech investment
A separate industry and high-technology roundtable attended by Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır focused on Türkiye’s potential to become a global hub for high-technology production and innovation.
The discussions covered Türkiye’s advantages in strategic areas including semiconductors, mobility, green energy, advanced manufacturing, healthy living, digital technologies, communications and space, as well as opportunities to establish complementary investments across different stages of global value chains.
Investors were also briefed on the government’s investment incentive programs.
DEIK President Nail Olpak said cooperation between Türkiye and the United States in industry and high technology was important. He highlighted what he said were opportunities arising from the combination of Türkiye’s industrial and technology strategy with U.S. strengths in artificial intelligence, semiconductors and software.
He said predictability was among the business community’s main expectations as global uncertainty increases. “We attach importance to having a clear road map for the future,” Olpak said.
Türkiye-U.S. Business Council Chair Murat Özyeğin said Türkiye was maintaining its commitment to disinflation and its policy direction despite increasingly challenging geopolitical and economic conditions.
He said the Medium-Term Program and investment framework demonstrated continuity in the government’s economic program and its intention to improve productivity and competitiveness.
Attracting long-term foreign direct investment that brings technology transfers and skilled employment to Türkiye is among the business community’s priorities, Özyeğin said.
Turkish military pension fund Oyak is in talks with one of the world’s largest energy companies over a strategic partnership in fuel distributor Güzel Enerji, with the outcome expected to become clear by early next year, its top executive said Tuesday.
Oyak General Manager Murat Yalçıntaş did not name the potential partner, but the fund has previously said it was holding talks with Saudi Arabia’s state oil company Saudi Aramco over a possible stake in Türkiye’s fourth-largest fuel retailer Güzel Enerji.
Oyak’s head of energy business Uğur Doğan said in May that talks were under way for Aramco to become a shareholder in Güzel Enerji.
Yalçıntaş said Oyak wants to expand its energy activities beyond fuel distribution into production and refining as part of its 2030 strategy to become an international player in core sectors.
He said the partnership under discussion would be an important step in Oyak’s push to build a more multinational structure.
“We have strategic partnership talks with one of the world’s largest energy giants. We think the picture will become clear by the end of this year or early next year,” Yalçıntaş told reporters in Istanbul.
The 2030 strategy was announced in late February when Yalçıntaş said the company had identified infrastructure, energy, logistics, high technology and mining as priority sectors.
Under the strategy, Oyak aims to strengthen its balance sheet and enhance cash generation and capital efficiency while nearly doubling its asset value to $60 billion by the end of the decade.
On a planned refinery investment, Yalçıntaş said Oyak was considering both greenfield projects and opportunities involving existing refineries, either in Türkiye or abroad.
Oyak operates more than 189 companies across 30 countries in sectors including mining and metallurgy, cement, automotive, energy, chemicals, food, finance and construction.
The group’s consolidated revenue reached TL 418 billion ($8.56 billion) in the first half of 2026, while consolidated net profit rose 66% year-over-year to TL 83 billion, Yalçıntaş said.
Consolidated assets increased 31% from the same period of 2025 to TL 1.85 trillion.
In the mining and metals sector, liquid steel production reached nearly 4.67 million tons in the first half, up 19% year-over-year, while finished product output rose 19% and sales volumes increased 15%.
Oyak’s automotive operations also maintained a strong position, with Renault’s Turkish joint venture Mais selling 100,256 vehicles in the first eight months of the year for a 13.9% market share, Yalçıntaş said.
Tekfen investment to support portfolio expansion
Yalçıntaş said Oyak’s acquisition of a 42.8% stake in Tekfen Holding was one of its most important strategic moves in 2026.
He said Tekfen’s international experience in engineering, procurement and construction would complement Oyak’s existing industrial ecosystem and support its 2030 strategy.
The investment would also strengthen Oyak’s agricultural industrial operations through Tekfen’s fertilizer, crop protection, seeds and agricultural production businesses, he said.
Energy and agriculture remain strategic priorities
In energy, Oyak has completed the acquisition of the remaining shares in ISKEN and Arkas Deniz Taşımacılığı, giving it full ownership of both companies, Yalçıntaş said.
ISKEN accounted for about 1.7% of Türkiye’s total electricity generation between January and August, while Güzel Enerji’s consolidated revenue reached TL 112.3 billion in the first half.
Yalçıntaş said Oyak was also continuing investments in steel, including planned investments at its electrical steel facility in Romania.
He described agriculture and food as strategic sectors for Türkiye, citing Oyak’s Hektaş and Toros businesses as key components of its strategy to strengthen agricultural production and input supply.
More Oyak companies could go public
Yalçıntaş said more Oyak companies could be listed on the Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange in the coming years.
He said the group had previously indicated that investors would see more publicly traded Oyak companies and had followed through on that commitment within six months, adding that preparations for further listings were continuing.
Oyak also plans to expand its infrastructure investments in Türkiye and abroad, including ports and logistics projects. Yalçıntaş said the group was assessing opportunities in Africa, particularly infrastructure projects linked to the production and transportation of the continent’s natural resources.
The group is also continuing to evaluate strategic partnerships in areas where it can create synergies, while considering exits from businesses that do not fit its portfolio strategy.
Integrating AI agents into online shopping could increase the threats of scams, fraud, and breaches of data privacy, banks including NatWest and Bank of America warned Tuesday, as they put forward a set of principles for how the technology should be developed.
Technology companies including OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and Meta are increasingly promoting AI chatbots as shopping tools, envisioning a future in which shoppers use AI agents to select products and make purchases on their behalf. Retailers, meanwhile, are racing to influence chatbots’ recommendations.
British retailer John Lewis said in September that searches originating from AI agents had risen to 2.5% from 0.3% a year earlier, with the trend accelerating.
The group of banks, which also includes ING, New Zealand’s ASB Bank, U.S. lender Capital One and Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a report that customers were enthusiastic about the potential of agentic commerce and keen to enable it.
However, they warned that the technology was advancing faster than industry standards and consumer protections.
“Consumers are unclear if AI will act in their interests,” the report said.
“They are concerned that AI agents may buy the wrong thing or spend too much – or even worse, lose their money to scams and fraud. They are not sure whether they will be protected or who they will need to go to if things go wrong.”
The report highlighted risks including AI agents requesting customers’ card details and entering them directly into websites, or steering users toward payment methods that offer weaker protections.
The banks plan to discuss a series of proposals with policymakers, including requiring disclosure when an AI agent is involved in a transaction, greater transparency over how AI agents make decisions, and safeguards to protect customer data.
Consumers and merchants should also be free to choose which AI-powered e-commerce services they use, while different systems should be interoperable, the report said.
Consumer confidence in Türkiye reached its highest level in more than eight years in September, official data showed Tuesday.
The consumer confidence index rose by 1.3% to 91.9 in September from 90.8 in August, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat)
That was the highest reading since July 2018, when the index stood at 92.9.
The index is calculated from the results of the consumer tendency survey carried out jointly by TurkStat and the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT).
It indicates an optimistic outlook when above 100, while levels below 100 signal pessimism.
Households’ expectations for their financial situation over the next 12 months improved, with the corresponding index rising to 93.7 from 93.1.
The index measuring expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months edged up to 89.8 from 89.4.
By contrast, the index measuring households’ current financial situation slipped to 75.3 from 75.4.
Consumers were also more willing to spend on durable goods over the coming year, with the corresponding sub-index rising to 108.8 from 105.1 in August.
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