Economy
Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel
Iran is betting it can outlast the U.S. and Israel by turning the conflict into a prolonged war of endurance. Its strategy is stark: Unleash drones and missiles, cut vital energy routes and jolt global markets hard enough to force Washington to blink first.
Despite the shock of U.S.-Israeli strikes and the loss of key figures, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is firmly in control, directing the battlefield, executing preplanned contingencies and dictating strategy and targets in the war.
The IRGC also played the decisive role in elevating Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening U.S.-Israeli strikes.
“For them, they are waging an existential fight. This is an all-out war,” said Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics. “They believe their very survival is at stake. They’re willing to bring the temple down on everyone’s heads.”
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and expert on Iranian politics, added: “They’re like a bleeding animal – wounded, but therefore more dangerous than ever.”
That all-out war mindset is behind Iran’s escalating strikes across the Gulf, targeting energy hubs from Qatar to Saudi Arabia to maximize economic disruption in a calculated attempt to drive up costs for its neighbors, Europe and the United States and test Washington’s political will.
U.S. President Donald Trump told Republican lawmakers Monday the war would continue until Iran is “totally and decisively defeated,” but predicted it would be over soon.
He added that once the U.S. is done with the military operation against Iran, Tehran will not have weapons to use against the U.S., Israel or U.S. allies.
Iranian insiders say this escalation was anticipated long before the war began 11 days ago. Iranian planners assumed a confrontation with Washington and Israel was inevitable and prepared a layered strategy coordinated across the IRGC’s sprawling military networks and proxy forces.
Now, with little left to lose, Iran is executing that plan and turning the conflict into a grinding war of attrition aimed at exhausting its adversaries politically and economically.
The consequences are already visible at home.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s selection as supreme leader, insiders say, proves the Guard’s dominance as kingmakers. They say the balance of power has shifted.
The supreme leader holds the title, but the future of Iran, and the authority of the clerical establishment itself, now depends on whether the Guard can weather the storm unleashed by the U.S.-Israeli campaign.
How long?
But a critical unknown in the war, says Mohannad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, is how long the Guard can sustain its missile campaign, the backbone of its strategy against its adversaries.
U.S. officials say a large share of Iran’s arsenal has already been destroyed, but regional sources say Tehran may still retain more than half its prewar stockpile.
If that estimate holds, Iran could keep launching missiles for several more weeks, a timeframe that could prove significant for Washington as economic pressure mounts at home and abroad.
The Guard’s reach also extends far beyond the battlefield as it reshapes daily life. An Iranian observer said goods that once sat for weeks at ports are now cleared immediately. Paperwork comes later.
Officials described that as preparation for a war economy, ensuring supply lines keep moving under pressure, while also consolidating the IRGC’s control over the state and asserting continuity of governance.
Equally critical is internal stability. So far, there are no signs of protests, elite defections or fractures within the establishment, according to observers and contacts inside Iran.
An insider in Tehran described a city under bombardment but still functioning. “The windows shake day and night,” the person said. “But life goes on.” Shops and banks remain open, supplies are available and most residents have not fled the capital.
The attacks, however, may be producing an effect opposite to what Washington and Israel intended, he noted. Despite long-standing grievances with the government, a surge of national solidarity is taking hold as strikes hit infrastructure, and the possibility of internal insurgencies is openly discussed.
“People are not prepared for Iran to disintegrate,” the source said.
For now, that sentiment may be buying the leadership time. “I don’t know if the regime will survive in the long term,” he added. “But for the next couple of weeks, it will not collapse.”
Who will blink first?
For strategists on both sides, the war is increasingly defined by two parallel tests of endurance: Whether Iran can keep firing missiles and whether the U.S. and Israel can sustain the economic, military and political costs of stopping them.
“The big question is who blinks first in this all-out war – Donald Trump or Iran’s leaders?” Gerges said.
By driving up energy prices and spreading financial pain across Western economies, Tehran hopes the pressure will force a U.S. retreat.
Early signs are that the effects are already biting. Oil prices are spiking, gas costs are rising and political unease is growing in Washington as the economic fallout collides with the 2026 midterm elections.
Under that pressure, Trump, Gerges said, could eventually seek an exit by declaring victory, citing the killing of Iran’s supreme leader, the destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and key military infrastructure.
For Tehran, however, survival alone would be enough.
Even if much of its strategic infrastructure is destroyed, Iran’s leadership can claim triumph and survival against one of the greatest military armadas in history.
What emerges may be a wounded Iran, but a bleeding Iran could prove just as dangerous – and perhaps more unpredictable – than the establishment that entered this conflict.
Britain said Wednesday it had reached a long-term trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council valued at roughly $5 billion annually, strengthening ties with Gulf partners amid regional instability from the Iran war.
The deal with the GCC, which consists of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, comes after U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran in February triggering Iranian attacks on other countries in the region, putting strain on energy and food supplies.
“At a time of increased instability, today’s announcement sends a clear signal of confidence – giving UK exporters the certainty they need to plan ahead, Britain’s Trade Minister Peter Kyle said.
The British government said the deal would be worth £3.7 billion ($4.96 billion) each year in the long term, more than double a previous estimate that it would be worth £1.6 billion, as the final deal went further on both trade liberalization and service sector commitments than previously expected.
The deal will remove 93% of GCC tariffs on British goods, equivalent to the removal of £580 million worth of tariffs by the deal’s tenth year, with two-thirds of the tariffs being removed as soon as the deal comes into force.
The government said that autos, aerospace, electronics and food and drink would be among the sectors to benefit, with cereals, cheddar cheese, chocolate and butter all becoming tariff-free.
In return, Britain has lowered tariffs to the GCC, though the countries’ main exports to Britain, oil and gas, are already tariff-free.
On services, Britain locked in current access to the GCC so businesses could expand without facing new barriers, while Gulf countries can also grow their own service sectors through the deal.
The deal doesn’t change or weaken British environmental or data protection standards, and also doesn’t contain any language around human rights, the UK government said. Some campaigners had warned the British government against ignoring human rights in any deal with the GCC.
Tom Wills, director of the Trade Justice Movement said that “by failing to negotiate any enforceable human rights protections within the deal, the UK has taken a moral step backwards.”
The agreement does contain an investor protection chapter to extend provisions to the three GCC states that weren’t previously covered by such treaties and it includes Investor-State Dispute Settlement, a mechanism that Wills also criticized for allowing Gulf investors to sue the British government.
Britain will allow imports of diesel and jet fuel refined abroad from Russian crude under a sanctions carve-out, watering down restrictions to help ensure supply at home as prices soar due to the conflict in the Middle East.
A trade license that came into effect on Wednesday permits the import of Russian oil that has been refined into jet fuel and diesel in third countries such as India and Türkiye, opening up more supplies for Britain.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory grip on the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil usually passes, has sent fuel prices soaring around the world and sparked concerns about a shortage of jet fuel.
Opposition Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch accused the British government of “choosing to buy dirty Russian oil.”
But Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the government is phasing in a package of sanctions announced in October and has issued a “targeted short-term” license for the refined products to protect British consumers in a volatile situation.
“So, these are new sanctions being phased in. This is not a question of lifting existing sanctions in any way whatsoever,” he said in the House of Commons.
The licenses have no end date, but the government said they would be reviewed periodically and can be amended or revoked.
National interest comes first
Britain has been one of Ukraine’s strongest allies since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, and the government insists its sanctions against Russia remain among the toughest in the world.
But lawmaker Emily Thornberry, who chairs parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said Ukrainians would “feel very let down” by the move. She said Ukraine’s allies should keep squeezing Russia’s oil industry because it “is absolutely crippling their economy.”
Junior Treasury Minister Dan Tomlinson said while Britain’s support for Ukraine remains steadfast, the national interest had to come first, and therefore a loosening of certain sanctions for now made sense.
“We have to make sure that we protect the security of supply for really important foundational goods in our economy, such as jet oil,” Tomlinson told the BBC on Wednesday.
The move follows a similar step by the U.S., which has also eased Russian sanctions. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent extended a 30-day sanctions waiver allowing the purchase of Russian oil shipments already at sea.
On Tuesday, finance ministers from the U.S., Britain and the other Group of Seven (G-7) wealthy nations issued a joint statement reaffirming “our unwavering commitment to continue to impose severe costs on Russia in response to its continued aggression against Ukraine.”
Thousands of sanctions remain
Since Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Britain has sanctioned more than 3,200 individuals, businesses and ships under its Russia sanctions regime, to try to disrupt Russia’s actions and help Kyiv.
Brent crude on Wednesday was trading at around $110 a barrel, near recent highs, reflecting concerns over disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Critics said the changes will allow the Kremlin to earn more money and fund the war against Ukraine.
Tomlinson defended the change as a “sensible decision” to help ensure the security of supply and help industry, airlines and households with rising prices. He said Britain continued to support Ukraine by providing billions of pounds of military equipment and through the multiple sanctions that remain.
Airlines in April warned about potential shortages of jet fuel supplies for the summer, but recently struck a more bullish tone on availability, although carriers worldwide have hiked fares and some have cut flights.
Separately, Britain on Tuesday issued a time-limited licence covering the maritime transportation of liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Sakhalin-2 and Yamal projects and related services – including shipping, financing and brokering – under Russia sanctions rules, running until Jan/ 1 next year.
Sakhalin-2, based in Russia’s Far East, and Yamal LNG in the Arctic, are among the country’s largest gas export projects.
Türkiye will host a second edition of a major natural resources summit on Friday, bringing together ministers, executives, investors and international institutions to discuss global energy security, investment strategies and critical minerals amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
The Istanbul Natural Resources Summit (INRES) is being organized by Türkiye’s leading media group and Daily Sabah’s parent company, Turkuvaz Media, under the auspices of the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry.
The event comes amid unprecedented geopolitical tensions and conflicts and as Türkiye accelerates efforts to position itself as a regional energy hub through expanded natural gas infrastructure, renewable energy investments and cross-border cooperation initiatives.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is expected to inaugurate the event, while Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar will address participants during the opening ceremony.
The summit follows last year’s inaugural gathering, which drew ministers from nine countries and positioned Istanbul as a regional platform for dialogue on energy and natural resources.
This year’s event is attracting ministers and deputy ministers from Europe, Asia and Africa, alongside representatives of international organizations, academia and the private sector.
In a statement on social media, Bayraktar said participants would gather “to build a safer future with common wisdom in challenging times.”
He said the summit would bring together seven ministers and three deputy ministers from nine countries, in addition to energy and mining sector representatives from 45 countries.
Participants will discuss issues ranging from global energy security and strategic investment models to hydrocarbons and critical minerals, according to the ministry.
Energy security to dominate ministerial session
Energy security is expected to be the central theme of the summit’s ministerial session, to be moderated by Daily Sabah business editor Amina Ali.
The session will focus on geopolitical developments, including the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and their implications for oil, natural gas, mining and critical mineral markets.
Attending ministers are expected to share their outlooks for global energy markets and regional cooperation opportunities.
Alongside Bayraktar, the panel will feature Azerbaijani Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov, Bulgarian Energy Minister Iva Petrova, Georgian Economy and Sustainable Development Minister Mariam Kvrivishvili, Libyan Oil and Gas Minister Khalifa Rajab Abdulsadiq, Moldovan Energy Minister Dorin Junghietu, Nigerian Minister of Solid Minerals Development Oladele Henry Alake and Somali Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Dahir Shire Mohamed.
Investment strategies, financing in focus
Financing and investment models in the energy and mining sectors will also be high on the agenda during a dedicated session, to be moderated by Daily Sabah senior business editor Alen Lepan.
Titled “Navigating Uncertainty: Investment Strategies for Hydrocarbons and Minerals,” the session will examine financing opportunities, investment risks and the impact of global economic developments on the sector.
The panel is expected to include Syrian Deputy Energy Minister for Oil Affairs Ghiath Diyab, Sonatrach CEO Noureddine Daoudi, Subsea 7 Conventional Executive Vice President Olivier Blaringham, TÜPRAG CEO Mehmet Yılmaz and Edison Vice President Fabrizio Mattana.
Challenges, opportunities
The third session, titled “Architecting the Transition: Challenges and Opportunities,” will be moderated by Mehmet Çelik, editorial coordinator at Daily Sabah, and will focus on the role governments should play in shaping energy transition and investment policies.
Officials and experts are expected to discuss public policy frameworks, financing mechanisms and international cooperation opportunities during the energy transition process.
Speakers include Bulgarian Deputy Energy Minister Kiril Temelkov, Romanian Energy Ministry State Secretary Cristian Silviu Bușoi, EPIAŞ CEO Taha Arvas, World Bank Senior Energy Economist Claire Nicolas and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Türkiye Vice President Mehmet Erdem Yaşar.
Bilateral meetings, agreements expected
Bayraktar is also expected to hold bilateral meetings with visiting ministers on the sidelines of the summit to discuss existing and potential areas of cooperation.
Several agreements could also be signed during the event as Türkiye seeks to deepen international partnerships in energy, mining and infrastructure investment.
Electricity generated from wind and solar energy in Türkiye exceeded coal-fired generation for the first time in April, in another advancement in the country’s energy transition as renewable sources gain a record share in overall power output.
Wind power accounted for 9.7% of Türkiye’s electricity generation in April, while solar energy contributed 13.1%, according to data compiled from the national energy exchange and market operator EPIAŞ.
Combined, the two renewable sources made up 22.8% of total power output, surpassing coal-fired power plants, whose share fell to 21% during the same period.
The development highlighted the declining role of fossil fuels in Türkiye’s electricity mix and the growing weight of renewable energy sources in power generation.
Coal has long been the largest single power fuel source, but Türkiye has pledged to gradually reduce its carbon emissions to zero by 2053, with ambitious renewable energy targets also aimed at reducing heavy energy import dependency.
The government has recently expanded renewable energy tenders and announced new offshore wind and grid infrastructure plans as electricity demand continues to rise.
Overall, renewable energy sources accounted for 71% of total electricity production in April, reaching one of the highest levels recorded in recent years.
Hydropower output also rises sharply
Above-seasonal rainfall also boosted hydroelectric generation, further strengthening renewable output that is helping ease pressure on the energy bill of one of Europe’s largest natural gas importers.
Hydropower production was 27% above the eight-year average and 60% higher than the same period last year, according to the data.
Water inflows into Türkiye’s main river basin dams during the first four months of 2026 also reached the highest level recorded over the past eight years, including long-term averages.
Notably, water inflows from January through April alone amounted to 95% of the total inflows recorded throughout all of last year.
Meanwhile, natural gas and imported coal saw notable declines in electricity generation shares.
Gas accounted for 7.7% of total power generation in April compared with the same period a year earlier, while imported coal’s share dropped to 8.6%, marking its lowest monthly level in nine years.
Gas, along with crude oil, constitutes the largest item in Türkiye’s energy import bill, which was $62 billion (TL 2.83 trillion) last year.
Hydroelectric plants lessen the need for thermal plants to use imported gas, which, like oil, has seen a global price surge due to the Iran war.
Sustaining renewable momentum
Ember energy analyst Çağlar Çeliköz said the figures represented one of the most significant developments in Türkiye’s energy transition in recent years and stressed the importance of sustaining the growth in wind and solar energy.
Çeliköz noted that strong growth in wind and solar capacity, which accounted for 89% of installed capacity additions over the past five years, played a major role, alongside increased hydropower production driven by favorable weather conditions.
“This development was supported both by the momentum achieved in wind and solar energy and by hydroelectric production levels that were 27% above the eight-year average due to above-seasonal rainfall,” he said.
However, Çeliköz cautioned that hydropower output can fluctuate significantly depending on climate conditions, creating uncertainty for future production levels.
For the gains to become more permanent, Türkiye must continue accelerating investments in wind and solar energy, he added.
“Türkiye needs to ensure resource diversity in renewable electricity generation by increasing the momentum it has achieved in wind and solar energy.”
After nearly a year of fluctuating trade tensions, the European Union reached an agreement Wednesday to implement its side of a trade pact with the U.S., seen as a crucial step in de-escalating the tariff disputes sparked by President Donald Trump.
Hailing the “good news,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said it showed the bloc was “delivering on its commitments” and bringing “security and stability” for European businesses – which faced a new Trump tariff threat unless the deal kicks in by July 4.
The 27-nation bloc struck an accord with Washington last July, setting levies on most European goods at 15%, but to Trump’s frustration, it had yet to make good on its pledge to scrap levies on most U.S. imports in return.
Negotiators from the EU’s parliament and capitals wrangled late into the night in Strasbourg, finally emerging long after midnight with news of an agreement to move forward.
“This means we will soon deliver on our part,” EU chief Ursula von der Leyen said on social media, calling for the implementation process to be quickly finalized as Trump’s deadline looms.
“Together, we can ensure stable, predictable, balanced, and mutually beneficial transatlantic trade.”
The EU agreement puts the bloc well on track for ratification by July 4 – short of which the U.S. leader threatened “much higher” tariffs and already vowed to raise duties on European cars and trucks from 15% to 25%.
Trump’s tariff blitz targeting steel, aluminium, car parts and other sectors hit the bloc hard before the deal struck with von der Leyen in Turnberry, Scotland last year – and has jolted it to cultivate trade ties around the world.
But the EU cannot afford to neglect the 1.6-trillion-euro ($1.9-trillion) relationship with the U.S., its largest trade partner.
‘Get what you need’
The EU parliament gave the deal a conditional green light in March, after months of delay caused by Trump’s designs on Greenland and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling striking down many of the president’s tariffs.
Parliament was under pressure to drop several amendments the Americans considered unacceptable, but trade committee head Bernd Lange – whose job was to hammer out a stance between haggling factions – played down the concessions extracted from lawmakers.
“One of my favorite songs from the Rolling Stones is, ‘You can’t always get what you want’. But if you try, you will get what you need – and indeed, we got what we need,” he told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday.
“We need a safety net in the relation with the United States,” Lange said, calling U.S. trade policy under Trump “totally unsecure and unpredictable.”
Among the safeguards built into the final text, the European Commission can move to suspend the accord if the U.S. fails to meet its commitments or disrupts trade and investment, including by “discriminating against or targeting EU economic operators.”
It also gives the EU means to address spikes in U.S. imports “that cause or threaten to cause serious injury to domestic producers,” with suspension once again a possible outcome.
There were clear compromises too, with the text notably giving the United States until the end of the year to drop surtaxes above 15% on steel components, rather than making it a precondition as parliament wanted.
Another concession was over so-called “sunrise” and “sunset” clauses under which the EU side of the accord would kick in once the U.S. makes good on its pledges, and would expire unless renewed in 2028.
The sunrise clause was removed altogether, while the sunset was pushed back to the end of 2029.
The pan-European agri-business group Copa-Cogeca welcomed the overall deal as a “step towards greater certainty for farmers” but vowed to remain vigilant over potential ill-effects.
Similarly, Germany’s auto industry association VDA broadly welcomed the agreement but also warned the safeguards risked upsetting the apple cart with the U.S. side – calling for matters to now be finalized “as quickly as possible.”
The eldest son of the late Isak Andic, founder of the clothing chain Mango, has been arrested over his father’s death during a hiking trip in December 2024, Spanish police said Tuesday.
Jonathan Andic, who was alone with his 71-year-old father when the retail magnate plunged to his death in the Montserrat mountains near Barcelona, was taken into custody, Catalan regional police said, confirming a report in the daily La Vanguardia newspaper.
Authorities said at the time that he fell from a height near the Salnitre caves in Collbato, an area marked by steep drops and ravines.
Investigators initially treated the death as an accident, with early findings suggesting Isak may have slipped. A judge closed the case in January 2025 after finding no evidence of criminal wrongdoing.
However, investigators with Catalonia’s regional police force, the Mossos d’Esquadra, along with prosecutors and the court, reopened the investigation in October 2025 after citing inconsistencies in Jonathan Andic’s testimony, according to the reports.
Jonathan Andic has denied any responsibility for his father’s death and has maintained that the fall was accidental.
Vice President Yılmaz met with Sudanese Prime Minister Idris
The cauldron is boiling in CHP! Support for Kılıçdaroğlu from 22 MPs! They raised a flag of rebellion against Özgür Özel
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Vice President Yılmaz met with Sudanese Prime Minister Idris
The cauldron is boiling in CHP! Support for Kılıçdaroğlu from 22 MPs! They raised a flag of rebellion against Özgür Özel
AK Party member Şebnem Bursalı Aksoy: They pretend to give it with a spoon and take it with a scoop
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