Economy
Türkiye sees post-war economic opportunities despite short-term risks
Türkiye expects to benefit from new regional dynamics after ongoing conflicts subside, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said on Tuesday, stressing that the country’s diversified supply structure and relative stability position it as a “safe haven” for investment.
“As a country with diversified supply systems, we do not have a supply shortage in any area. A new regional environment awaits us after the war. New dynamics will come into play, and we believe that as a country that maintains its stability and preserves its character as a safe haven, we have very significant opportunities and possibilities in this environment,” Yılmaz said.
He was speaking at a roundtable organized by the Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Türkiye (TOBB) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
“Although these events may have negative impacts in the short term, they bring an important perspective and significant opportunities for Türkiye in the medium term,” said the vice president.
Oil and gas prices spiked following the start of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Global supply chains are facing a historic upheaval as the war disrupts shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the key transit point for Gulf oil and gas exports, as well as fertilizers.
Yılmaz said Türkiye has managed to shield itself from supply disruptions thanks to diversified sourcing, while taking measures to limit inflationary pressures caused by rising global prices.
“We are making efforts to contain the impact on inflation, even at the cost of taking on some fiscal burden,” he said.
At the same time, Yılmaz underscored Ankara’s dual approach of maintaining strong deterrence while advocating diplomacy, negotiations and cease-fires in regional conflicts.
“We support peace and diplomacy in every field and will continue to contribute to these processes,” he said.
Trade momentum continues, but imbalance widens
The meeting in Ankara, attended by senior representatives from the U.S. business community, focused on expanding bilateral trade and investment ties.
Yılmaz highlighted the strong trajectory of economic relations between Türkiye and the United States, noting that bilateral trade reached $39 billion in 2025, with the U.S. becoming one of Türkiye’s largest export markets.
Trade volume stood at $10.4 billion in the first quarter of 2026, signaling continued momentum toward the long-standing $100 billion trade target, he said. However, Yılmaz acknowledged that the trade balance has recently shifted against Türkiye, partly due to increased imports in energy and defense.
“To ensure a more sustainable and balanced structure, we aim to diversify trade and focus on high value-added sectors,” he added.
Beyond trade, mutual investments have also deepened. Direct U.S. investments in Türkiye totaled $16 billion between 2003 and 2025, with more than 2,300 U.S.-capital companies operating in the country across production, exports, employment and research and development.
Turkish companies, in turn, have invested more than $14 billion in the United States over the same period. Still, Yılmaz said Türkiye has significant untapped potential given the United States’ roughly $8 trillion global foreign direct investment stock.
Business leaders see strong investment potential
TOBB President Rifat Hisarcıklıoğlu echoed the positive outlook, saying the recent surge in trade and investment ties has created strong momentum toward the $100 billion target, though sustainability and balance remain key priorities.
He also pointed to shifting global supply chains, where trends such as near-shoring and friend-shoring are elevating Türkiye’s strategic importance due to its geography, industrial capacity and workforce.
Chobani founder Hamdi Ulukaya, who also heads the U.S.-Türkiye Business Council, said the current geopolitical environment has further underscored Türkiye’s role as a strategic investment destination.
“Türkiye has a young, dynamic business environment,” he said, adding that long-term investors could reap significant returns. “Investments in Türkiye will yield incredible results.”
Turkish home appliance maker Arçelik said Tuesday it has agreed to sell its 60% stake in a joint venture with the Japanese Hitachi Global Life Solutions under a share purchase agreement worth approximately $261 million, thus exiting the venture.
Accordingly, the Turkish company will transfer its stake in the venture called Arçelik Hitachi Home Appliances to Hitachi Global Life Solutions, the company said in a statement shared at the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP).
Under the deal, Arçelik will receive $205 million in cash at closing, with deferred payments totalling $56 million to be paid in instalments over three years, it said.
The final price will be adjusted at closing to include 60% of Arçelik Hitachi’s net cash exceeding $56 million, the company said in a statement.
Türkiye is a major white goods producer, but sales, exports and production in the sector in Türkiye shrank last year as rising costs weighed on competitiveness.
The transaction marks Arçelik’s exit from the joint venture formed with Japan’s Hitachi in 2020 and includes the transfer of 12 subsidiaries, among them manufacturing plants and R&D centers in China and Thailand.
At 7:04 a.m. GMT, Arçelik shares were around 3% higher, though still about 37% below their May 2024 peak.
Hitachi said the deal is part of a broader restructuring. It plans to fold its home appliances operations, including its remaining 40% stake in Arçelik Hitachi, into a new company to be set up under a strategic partnership with Japanese electronics retailer Nojima Corporation.
If that restructuring is completed, Arçelik’s 60% stake will ultimately be acquired by the new company under Nojima’s indirect control. If not, Hitachi will directly purchase Arçelik’s stake.
Completion is subject to regulatory approvals and the completion of Hitachi’s planned spin-off. The parties expect the closing within 12 months.
U.S. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer has left her post following allegations of misconduct, the Trump administration said Monday, marking the third Cabinet-level departure in recent months after Trump fired his embattled Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in March and ousted Attorney General Pam Bondi earlier this month.
“Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer will be leaving the Administration to take a position in the private sector,” White House spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement. “She has done a phenomenal job in her role by protecting American workers, enacting fair labor practices, and helping Americans gain additional skills to improve their lives.”
He said Keith Sonderling, the current deputy labor secretary, would become acting labor secretary in her place.
Chavez-DeRamer’s departure follows reports that began surfacing in January that she was under a series of investigations. The news outlet NOTUS was the first to report her resignation Monday.
Baby food produced by the German-based HiPP brand were pulled off the shelves in countries across Central Europe after rat poison was discovered in some jars over the weekend.
Five tampered jars have been recovered so far in Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but a sixth jar may “still be in circulation in Austria,” said police in the German state of Bavaria, who are leading the investigation.
Later on Monday, the company and German police said the jars were deliberately tainted with rat poison as part of an attempt to extort their manufacturer.
Austria’s health minister told parents, kindergartens and day care centers to use utmost caution when feeding young children HiPP. The company recalled some of its baby food jars in the three countries.
Authorities believe tampering occurred in 190-gram (6.7-ounce) jars of baby food made with carrots and potatoes for 5-month-old children that were sold at SPAR supermarkets in Austria. The first sample tested positive on Saturday.
On Monday, Austrian authorities said they were searching for a second jar of baby food that may have poison. It may have been sold at a SPAR supermarket in the eastern town of Eisenstadt, Austrian news agency APA reported.
“It is deeply disturbing that someone is apparently willing to endanger the health of babies for criminal motives,” Health Minister Korinna Schumann told APA.
In the Czech Republic, two jars of HiPP baby food that tested positive for the poison were found in a store in the city of Brno. The state prosecution in Brno confirmed the find but did not give further details, citing a police investigation.
HiPP said its retail partners in Czechia and Slovakia “have already removed all jars of HiPP baby food from sale as a precaution.”
Slovak police said they were investigating suspicious jars from a store in the city of Dunajska Streda.
Slovenia began preemptively withdrawing all HiPP products from shelves of Spar and other supermarkets, its health inspectorate said.
Austrian authorities also reached out to Hungarian officials, saying a poisoned jar may have been purchased by people living in the border region near Eisenstadt.
Burgenland Police in Austria said the suspicious products likely have a white sticker with a red circle on the bottom of the jar. Other warning signs include a damaged or opened lid and an unusual or spoiled smell. There might not be a popping noise when the jar is first opened.
“HiPP is the victim of an extortion attempt,” the German company said in a statement later on Monday, saying the person trying to extort the company had sent it a message. It said the jars had been tampered with but did not mention poison.
“Ingolstadt police is conducting an investigation under the supervision of the Ingolstadt prosecutors’ office into persons unknown on suspicion of attempted extortion against baby food producer HiPP,” the police said in a statement shortly before HiPP’s.
It did not provide specifics on the attempt but said all necessary measures were taken once an email by the presumed culprits came to light on April 16.
Austrian newspaper Die Presse reported on Monday, before the German police statement, that an email was sent to HiPP on March 27 and gave the company until April 2 to pay 2 million euros ($2.35 million) or two jars of baby food would be poisoned in each of three specific supermarkets in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria.
Without providing dates, HiPP said the message it received was sent to “an unpersonalized collective address that, as part of our standard processes, is viewed on occasions that are quite far apart”, and that it had informed the authorities as soon as it became aware of it.
“This is a criminal, external manipulation beyond our control in three shops. We are not aware of any further instances of manipulation,” it said.
The Burgenland public prosecutor’s office was investigating the case as “intentional endangerment of the public.”
HiPP last week said the recall “is not due to any product or quality defect on our part. The jars left our HiPP facility in perfect condition.”
HiPP said it was recalling all of its baby food jars sold at Austria’s SPAR supermarkets – which include SPAR, EUROSPAR, INTERSPAR and Maximarkt stores – as a precaution.
Rat poison typically includes bromadiolone, which prevents blood from clotting, according to the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety. Ingesting rat poison could lead to bleeding gums and nosebleeds as well as bruising and blood in the stool.
Symptoms could appear two to five days after ingestion, the agency said.
In Prague, Ester Svetlik Danelova, who is currently on maternity leave, told The Associated Press (AP) that “the situation is worrying,” for her family.
“I have three kids, and we definitely use this (baby food) throughout their lives,” she said, adding that “on the bright side, it means I cook more at home now.”
Oil prices surged on Monday and global equities eased as markets grew increasingly concerned that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran might not hold and a second round of talks was hanging in the balance, while tensions over the Strait of Hormuz once again escalated.
Brent crude futures rose about 6% to $95.85 a barrel. MSCI’s world share index was last down around 0.3%, with Europe’s cross-regional STOXX 600 down 1.1%, after Asia’s equity markets shrugged off risks to advance. S&P 500 futures were 0.65% lower.
Concerns grew on Monday that the cease-fire between the United States and Iran might not hold after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Iran vowed to retaliate.
However, lingering hopes for a deal to end the seven-week crisis continued to support Asian equities, even as Tehran said it was not currently planning to attend peace talks.
Crude plunged on Friday while U.S. stocks rallied after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) usually passes, citing the cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. However, over the weekend, it said the strait was closed again to traffic while the U.S. has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports.
U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dived more than 11% and Brent shed 9% in response to developments on Friday.
But both contracts jumped sharply on Monday, days before the end of a two-week ceasefire, owing to the ongoing U.S. blockade and after an American destroyer fired on and seized an Iranian ship that tried to evade it. Tehran warned it would retaliate.
Kpler data showed that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertilizer passed through the strait on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1. Still, shipping data on Monday indicated that only three vessels transited the waterway over the past 12 hours, a Reuters report said.
The blockade of Iranian ports has been a significant sticking point in negotiations between the two countries, and state broadcaster IRIB cited Iranian sources as saying “there are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-U.S. talks” in Pakistan.
The Fars and Tasnim news agencies had earlier cited anonymous sources as saying “the overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive,” adding that lifting the U.S. blockade was a precondition for negotiations.
There has so far been only a single, 21-hour negotiating session held in Islamabad on April 11 that ended inconclusively, though groundwork for fresh talks continued afterwards.
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it,” Trump said in a social media post Sunday, while also renewing his threats against Iran’s infrastructure if a deal is not made.
But Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any attempt to pass through the strait without permission “will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted.”
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the blockade was “a violation” of the cease-fire.
Chris Weston at Pepperstone said traders were assessing “whether the cease-fire can be salvaged through this week’s diplomatic talks, with recalibration on the probability of military escalation.”
Focus on Hormuz
The outlook for further negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and a quick resolution seemed uncertain.
“Whether this impasse proves to be merely a detour on the path to a resolution remains to be seen, but more volatility would seem the most likely outcome,” Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a note.
“We always thought there would be some swings and roundabouts within that, rather than a straight linear path to the end outcome,” said Investec’s Horsfield.
Bonds, which rallied on Friday, retreated and the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 2.6 basis points to 4.2697%, while the yield on German 10-year government bonds was last 3.6 bps higher at 3.0015%.
The dollar, which was sold for the best part of the past two weeks, broadly steadied, trading at $1.1761 per euro.
Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week.
British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European Purchasing Managers’ Index figures are also due through the week, though much of the market’s focus will be on Gulf shipping.
“The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.
“Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation.”
The U.K. economy is on the brink of recession, with up to 250,000 jobs at risk by mid-2027, according to a report by the British daily The Guardian on Monday, citing projections of leading consultancies.
Forecasts from EY Item Club indicate that the economy is expected to flatline in the second and third quarters of this year, raising the risk of a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The group projected that economic growth would slow from 1.4% in 2025 to 0.7% this year, while unemployment is forecast to rise to 5.8% by mid-2027, up from the current 5.2%.
“Spiraling energy costs and disruption to supply chains will push the U.K. to the brink of a technical recession in the middle of this year,” said Matt Swannell, chief economic adviser at EY Item Club.
“Consumers’ spending power will be squeezed, while more expensive financing arrangements and a less certain global economic backdrop will pour cold water on companies’ investment plans,” he noted.
A separate report by Deloitte found that finance chiefs at major U.K. companies are already cutting spending, a move that is likely to weigh on economic activity and hiring.
Confidence among chief financial officers dropped to a net minus 57% in late March, down from minus 13% in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Finance leaders are coping with high levels of external uncertainty, and their focus is on managing risks from geopolitics, rising energy prices, and higher financing costs,” said Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte UK.
Executives identified energy costs, inflation, interest rates, and cyberattacks among the main risks facing businesses over the next three years.
The reports also showed a shift toward defensive financial strategies, with firms prioritizing cost control and cash preservation, while expectations for investment and hiring have weakened.
“Rarely in the last 16 years have U.K. CFOs been more focused on cost control than today,” Stewart said, adding that companies are strengthening balance sheets in response to external pressures.
Türkiye is launching a broad-based regional incentive program aimed at strengthening investment across the Marmara region and reducing the economic burden on Istanbul by boosting the development of surrounding provinces.
The “Local Development Initiative Incentive Program,” coordinated by the Industry and Technology Ministry, will support projects in 11 provinces, seeking to unlock local production potential, accelerate strategic investments and reinforce the region’s role as a key investment hub.
Under the scheme, investors will be offered a wide range of incentives depending on project size and scope, including tax reductions, social security premium support, interest or profit-share contributions, land allocation and income tax exemptions.
The initiative foresees each project receiving up to over TL 300 million (nearly $6.7 million) in direct financial support, along with tax cuts of up to 50% of the investment value. Applications for the program will be accepted until May 15.
Cultural industry in Istanbul, rubber products in Bursa
The program outlines province-specific priority sectors to better distribute industrial growth and diversify regional output.
In Istanbul, support will focus on strengthening the entrepreneurship ecosystem through large-scale shared service hubs, vertical and smart agriculture, and investments in cultural industries, including design-oriented and circular production workshops.
In northwestern Bursa, dubbed Türkiye’s automotive capital, incentives will target high-value manufacturing areas such as aerospace and defense subcomponents, advanced rubber products, vehicle cooling systems and technical textiles.
Support for green hydrogen in Çanakkale
Çanakkale will prioritize value-added forestry products, integrated livestock farming, green hydrogen and its derivatives, and innovative products derived from olives and agricultural waste.
Industrial hub Kocaeli is set to receive support for high-specification electrical and pyrotechnic devices, elastomer-based railway components, water recycling technologies and earthquake-resilient advanced materials and testing systems.
In Sakarya, incentives will focus on smart metering systems, vehicle sanitation technologies, value-added agricultural production and industrial food processing machinery.
Geothermal greenhouses in Balıkesir, medical device production in Tekirdağ
Meanwhile, Balıkesir will promote geothermal greenhouse investments, integrated red meat processing facilities, thermal tourism developments and licensed olive oil storage projects.
Tekirdağ will prioritize automotive parts, structural components for defense and civil aviation, textile machinery and medical device manufacturing.
In Yalova, support will target critical components for marine vessels, greenhouse materials, agricultural value-added production and thermal-based health tourism investments.
Bilecik will focus on livestock farming, marble waste recycling, technical ceramics and agricultural processing.
Support for livestock investments in Thrace
Across the Thrace region, livestock and agri-based investments will be encouraged.
Kırklareli will support integrated cattle farming, modular furniture production and grape-based value-added products, while Edirne will prioritize smart agriculture technologies, insulation materials and high-value grain processing.
The program is designed to enhance production, technology and export capacity across the Marmara region while narrowing development gaps between provinces.
The initiative is said to contribute to more balanced and sustainable economic growth by spreading industrial activity beyond Istanbul.
EU clarifies comments on Türkiye’s role in neighboring regions
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BREAKING NEWS! Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek announced! Close monitoring of unsolved perpetrators: Special unit established
EU clarifies comments on Türkiye’s role in neighboring regions
Wolves crawl back to score shock NBA playoffs win over Nuggets
BREAKING NEWS! Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek announced! Close monitoring of unsolved perpetrators: Special unit established
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