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UK inflation eases but oil price spike creates new problem for BoE

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Inflation in the U.K. eased slightly in May as anticipated by the Bank of England (BoE), which is expected to keep interest rates on hold this week as it assesses international energy markets being rocked by escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Consumer prices rose in annual terms by 3.4% in May, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Wednesday, in line with a Reuters poll of economists.

The data is unlikely to shift interest rate expectations among economists and investors who think the BoE will leave borrowing costs on hold when it announces its June policy decision on Thursday.

Sterling rose slightly against the U.S. dollar after the ONS data release.

The British central bank, which is taking a “careful” approach to cutting interest rates, is likely to double down on that language as the conflict between Israel and Iran enters a sixth day. Oil prices have risen about 14% in just over a week.

“The focus now will turn to geopolitical events and the rise in energy prices,” Deutsche Bank chief U.K. economist Sanjay Raja said.

“This will undoubtedly complicate the (BoE’s) task. Higher energy prices will mean higher inflation expectations.” However, Britain’s weakening jobs market could cool inflation pressures, he said.

Services price inflation – a crucial metric for the BoE – cooled to 4.7% from 5.4% in April, matching the BoE’s forecast for May. The Reuters poll had pointed to a reading of 4.8%.

Raja said the BoE would be heartened by a drop in its preferred core measure of inflation, which strips out indexed and volatile components as well as rents and holidays, and fell below 4% for the first time since February 2022.

Earlier this month, the ONS said April’s headline consumer price inflation reading of 3.5% had been overstated by 0.1 percentage points due to an error in car tax data from the government.

April’s figures were not amended, but the correct data was used for May’s readings.

Air fares fell sharply after an Easter holiday spike in April’s readings.

Gas, electricity and water prices rose in April alongside higher taxes on employers, causing inflation to leap from 2.6% in March.

Food prices rose by 4.4% in the 12 months to May, the biggest increase in over a year, the ONS said, a blow for low-income households.

Overall goods prices rose by the most since November 2023, up by 2.0%.

Some BoE officials have said they disagree with the central bank’s key assumption reached at its May meeting that the recent climb in inflation will not have longer-running effects on pricing behavior.

Market pricing on Wednesday pointed to an 89% chance that the BoE will leave rates on hold this week, with two 0.25 percentage-point cuts priced in by the year’s end.

The BoE lowered rates by a quarter point to 4.25% on May 8 in a three-way split vote, with two Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members favouring a bigger cut and two, including Pill, favoring a hold.

The central bank said in May it expects inflation to peak at about 3.7% later this year. Some economists think April might prove to be the high point, although the conflict in the Middle East poses a risk of stronger price pressures.

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Economy

ADB approves $175M loan for Türkiye’s municipal renewable projects

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) said Wednesday it greenlighted a $175.48 million loan for Türkiye’s public development and investment bank, Ilbank, to support renewable energy investments by municipalities.

The financing will help fund the Municipal Renewable Energy Transition Program, which supports Türkiye’s target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2053.

The program will finance municipal solar and wind energy projects, including related substations, switchgear, switchyards and access roads. It aims to help metropolitan, provincial and district municipalities cut energy costs, decarbonize public buildings and improve energy resilience.

ADB said municipal buildings and infrastructure services account for 31% of electricity consumption and 30% of greenhouse gas emissions among municipalities in Türkiye.

The loan, together with $43 million in co-financing from Ilbank, is expected to accelerate renewable energy installations across the country and ease pressure on transmission and distribution grids.

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Undoing over 40 years of Iran sanctions won’t be easy or quick

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Tehran could potentially gain billions of dollars from a 60-day reprieve from U.S. sanctions announced earlier this week, ​but unwinding more than 40 years of broad restrictions poses legal, political and commercial challenges that could take years.

At issue is whether an interim U.S. deal with Iran can translate into lasting economic relief, given the complexity of dismantling a sanctions regime ⁠that spans U.S. law, international measures and private-sector risk concerns.

The U.N., ⁠the U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions and trade embargoes and have frozen assets since the late 1970s over Iran’s nuclear program, human rights violations and support for armed groups around the region.

Under a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed by the U.S. and Iran last week, Washington is to ​start abolishing all types of sanctions using a schedule to be forged in a final deal within 60 days, ​a ⁠period that can be extended.

On Monday, the U.S. Treasury issued a temporary general license allowing the production, delivery and sale of crude oil and petrochemical and petroleum products of Iranian origin through Aug. 21.

Removing the remaining sanctions – if it happens – would represent a stark change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East, which has long focused on curbing Iran’s influence and using financial pressure to weaken its theocratic government.

It would also be difficult, requiring executive action for some measures, approval by Congress for others and close coordination with the U.N. and other countries that have imposed their own sanctions. Companies, wary after decades of restrictions, could also blunt the impact.

“You have this tangled nest of sanctions, and it’s not just executive orders, it’s congressional sanctions,” said Juan Zarate, deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism under former President George W. Bush.

Congress is skeptical

Washington first sanctioned Iran in 1979, after revolutionary students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, holding diplomats hostage.

Since then, Congress has passed half a dozen sanctions laws and presidents have issued executive orders over Iran’s nuclear program and its support for groups the U.S. deems terrorist organizations, including Hamas, Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis.

Since early 2025, the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) ⁠has ⁠imposed sanctions on more than 1,000 people, vessels and aircraft, according to Treasury data.

Delisting thousands of entities designated for sanctions would take OFAC at least a year, said Jeremy Paner, a partner at law firm Hughes Hubbard & Reed and a former U.S. sanctions official.

President Donald Trump can rescind executive orders issued on Iran, but some measures – including sanctions on Hamas and Hezbollah – are mandated by law and will have to be removed or amended by Congress, where the interim deal has already sparked sharp public criticism from his fellow Republican lawmakers.

Undoing 40 years of sanctions would be difficult, added Matt Zweig, managing director of policy at FDD Action, the lobbying arm of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

“Any attempt to comprehensively remove layer upon layer of sanctions will be like peeling back an onion – exposing the administration – not just to legal complexities but political risks,” said Zweig, a former aide on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

The license issued on Monday could be worth up to $3 ⁠billion for Iran over two months, by some estimates.

That could swell to “at least tens of billions of dollars” if made permanent, erasing a discount on Iranian oil, allowing Tehran to sell to additional buyers beyond China, and increasing exports, said Edward Fishman, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. China now buys about 90% of Iranian oil, despite the sanctions.

The new license is broader than the one ​issued in March, calling for inclusion of not just oil and petroleum products, but also banking, insurance and transportation related to the oil trade, giving Tehran quicker access to ​its revenues.

“There are a number of thorny issues involved,” said Stephanie Connor, a former OFAC official now a partner with law firm Holland & Knight, adding that lifting sanctions could mean funds flowing to groups the U.S. considers a threat.

“Are we really going to let money start flowing to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard ⁠Corps?” she asked, referring ‌to the powerful paramilitary ‌force that the U.S. has designated a foreign terrorist organization.

Wary companies

Banks, oil firms and insurers will face evolving regulations, tougher ⁠due diligence and exposure to sanctions-evasion risks tied to Iran’s links with countries such as China, North ‌Korea and Russia.

They also remain subject to separate sanctions from Britain, the U.N., the EU and others. “We’ve kind of beaten the markets up with the risk of doing business with or through Iran, so you ​can’t just flip a switch and say, ‘Oh, now it’s okay ⁠to do business with Iran,'” Zarate said.

Companies that deal with Iran would still face lawsuits from victims of attacks, who can ⁠sue investors and companies for aiding designated groups under the 2016 Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, which aides say is unlikely to be repealed.

Given such risks, ⁠companies may steer clear of working with Iran ​to escape legal and reputational risk as long as the Iranian government remains in power, said Brett Erickson, principal with Obsidian Risk Advisors.

“We’re not going to see massive multi-billion dollar commitments until things are far more cemented and politically stable,” he said.

“There’s just a long way to go.”



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Economy

Trump orders probe into oil firms, claiming prices stayed high

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he ordered a probe into major oil companies over high gasoline prices as he faces criticism over the impact of the Mideast war.

Global petroleum prices soared after Iran blocked the flow of oil through the vital Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes in February.

“The big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

“Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged’,” he added.

Gasoline prices are a political issue in the United States, where fossil fuel-powered vehicles are many Americans’ primary means of transport.

Trump has faced criticism for launching the war and its impact on the fuel costs paid by millions of Americans as November’s congressional elections draw closer.

The president repeatedly predicted that fuel prices would “come down like a rock” after the conflict ended.

But economists dispute that claim, expecting oil prices to take months to return to pre-war levels.

Tehran and Washington have struck an initial deal that includes the resumption of oil tanker traffic through Hormuz, though issues like Iran’s nuclear program are still in dispute.

Gasoline prices are still above their pre-war levels, but have come down since the initial deal was announced.

The average price of a gallon (3.8 liters) of regular gasoline logged in at $3.93 on Tuesday, according to the AAA motor club.

Trump has faced backlash from Americans who accuse him of pouring billions of taxpayer dollars into the Middle East war while oil prices and inflation skyrocket in the United States.

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Economy

Germany seeks to raise retirement age under sweeping reform plan

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Germany plans to gradually raise its retirement age beyond 67 and also abolish early retirement, as well as expand compulsory pension contributions under a set of new recommendations backed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Tuesday.

Germany, like many industrialized economies, is struggling with an ageing population and last year appointed an expert commission to come up with suggested reforms to its pension system.

Presenting its findings on Tuesday, the commission said the retirement age should be linked to life expectancy and gradually raised beyond 67 now.

It recommended abolishing a scheme that allows people to retire early at 63, and expanding compulsory pension contributions to include civil servants and self-employed workers.

“All elements of this reform package… must now be implemented swiftly,” Merz told a press conference, adding that “we cannot afford to remove or reject individual measures.”

Merz added that the proposals aim to meet “two goals: pensions remain secure, and the burdens are distributed fairly across all segments of society and across all generations.”

Opposition parties and unions have voiced criticism of some of the proposals, which had previously been published in German media.

The left-wing party Die Linke said that under the changes, people would be “working even longer, working even more.”

The trade union Verdi said the proposal to scrap the early retirement scheme showed “a total disregard for the lifetime achievements of the people concerned.”

The proposals must still be debated and voted on in parliament before becoming law.

In office for just over a year, Merz has struggled to deliver on his promises of sweeping reforms and a revival of Germany’s stagnant economy.

Tensions have brewed between Merz’s conservative CDU/CSU bloc, which has pushed for tougher welfare cuts, and their junior coalition partners, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

However, the SPD on Tuesday also said it supported the pension recommendations, with Labor Minister Baerbel Bas declaring that she was “very confident” the reforms would be supported in parliament.

Around 19 million people in Germany were aged 65 or older, or about 23% of the total population in 2024, the latest year for which statistics are available.

In 1991, only 15% of the population was aged over 65.

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Türkiye’s new deposit return system to boost economy, cut waste

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Türkiye’s new deposit return system for beverage containers, which is set to launch as of next month, is expected to contribute about TL 30 billion ($645.44 million) annually to the economy while reducing waste and greenhouse gas emissions, the head of a leading environment agency said recently.

The Deposit Return System for Beverage Packaging, known by its Turkish acronym DOA, will be launched nationwide on July 1 as part of the Zero Waste initiative.

Under the system, consumers will be able to return plastic, glass and aluminum beverage containers bearing the DOA logo through designated return points or reverse vending machines and receive a refund of TL 1 per container through a mobile application.

Speaking to Anadolu Agency (AA), Turkish Environment Agency (TÜÇA) President Nurullah Öztürk said that the project is not only a recycling application but also a strategic transformation project with environmental, technological, industrial and economic dimensions.

He said that the system is among the world’s most comprehensive digital deposit-return programs.

“From producers to consumers, from return points to recycling facilities, the entire process is tracked digitally. In this way, we are creating both a transparent and reliable structure,” Öztürk said.

According to Öztürk, 1,148 reverse vending machines have already been installed across the country, with six domestic manufacturers producing the equipment used in the system.

The agency said a pilot program that began in Sakarya has expanded to 72 provinces and has already recovered more than 38 million beverage containers, including plastic, glass and aluminum packaging.

Türkiye consumes about 25 billion single-use beverage containers annually, Öztürk said.

“We aim for the system to contribute approximately 30 billion Turkish liras annually to the Turkish economy. We are creating a strong model that combines environmental benefits and economic gains,” he said.

The agency estimates the system could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about 37,000 tons annually, save 1.3 billion kilowatt-hours of energy and prevent the use of 3.6 million barrels of oil.

Öztürk also said that increased recycling rates are expected to reduce imports of raw materials used in beverage packaging by between 35% and 40%.

The program includes participation from hotels, restaurants and cafes, with 853 businesses currently registered in the system and 304 manual return points operating nationwide. Twenty-three operators have been authorized to manage collection, transportation and verification processes.

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Economy

Turkic states edge closer in digital trade as Türkiye ratifies deal

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Türkiye has finalized its approval process for a digital economy partnership agreement among members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), bringing the bloc closer to a new framework for digital trade and economic integration.

The law approving the ratification of the “Digital Economy Partnership Agreement among the Governments of the Member States of the Organization of Turkic States” was published in the country’s Official Gazette on Tuesday, the Trade Ministry said.

With the move, Türkiye became the third country after Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan to complete its internal approval process for the agreement.

The deal will enter into force after Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan also complete their domestic approval procedures.

The ministry said the agreement is designed to remove barriers to e-commerce, digital services and cross-border data-based economic activities among Turkic states, while establishing common rules for a more integrated and predictable digital economy framework.

It is also expected to strengthen commercial and technological integration across the Turkic world, support businesses’ access to digital markets, encourage the use of innovative technologies and increase regional competitiveness.

The agreement includes detailed provisions on preventing barriers to payments and money transfers, paperless trade, electronic transaction frameworks, logistics, electronic invoicing, express delivery services, electronic payments, national supplier databases, electronic signatures, commercial electronic messages, online consumer protection and personal data protection.

It also covers cooperation in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), financial and technological fields, cybersecurity and competition policy.

The agreement was signed on Nov. 6, 2024, during the 11th Summit of the Organization of Turkic States in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The ministry said the agreement would help Turkic states deepen cooperation based on shared values and contribute to global efforts to shape digital trade rules.

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