Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may have more experience in banking than in politics, but he has shown a confident touch in standing up to U.S. President Donald Trump and managing a trade war that threatens his nation’s economy.

“We are masters in our own house,” the prime minister said on Saturday, just hours after breaking off trade talks with the United States and ordering his negotiators back to Ottawa.

Despite the risks this decision poses to Canada, which is heavily dependent on exports to the U.S., Carney can boast of broad support, with 76% of the public praising his stance toward Washington, according to a weekend poll.

“Mark Carney has the means to achieve his ambitions because the country is behind him,” says Genevieve Tellier, a professor of political science at the University of Ottawa.

After Washington slapped Canada with 50% duties, Canada Tuesday announced counter-tariffs of its own.

Former head of Canada’s central bank, Carney, 61, was not known for his charisma – unlike his flamboyant predecessor Justin Trudeau, from the same Liberal Party – but has nevertheless managed to kindle a patriotic flame among Canadians weary of American attacks.

It was trade tension with the United States that propelled him to power – two months after Trump began his second term – as Canadians saw him as a protector of their economy.

Replacing Trudeau as leader of his party and the government in March 2025, he won a general election a month later, to everyone’s surprise.

“He transformed into a politician quite quickly; it was a surprise,” said Tellier.

The Davos turning point

A blunt speech Carney gave at January’s World Economic Forum marked a turning point for him on the international stage.

Declaring that the world was in the midst of a “rupture in the world order,” he called on middle powers like Canada to unite.

“If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu,” he said.

The speech sent a message that Carney was positioning himself “as an international leader with a different, credible vision,” Tellier said.

After studying at Harvard and Oxford, Mark Carney made his fortune as an investment banker at Goldman Sachs in New York, London, Tokyo and Toronto.

In 2008, at the height of the global financial crisis, he was appointed governor of the Bank of Canada by a conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper.

Five years later, he was chosen by a conservative British prime minister, David Cameron, to head the Bank of England, becoming the first foreigner to lead the institution.

In this role, he would face the economic turmoil caused by Brexit, after the U.K. decided to leave the European Union.

‘Difficult phase’

Declaring Monday that “America has changed,” the Canadian leader is moving forward with determination: seeking new trading partners, launching major projects and boosting military spending.

Carney has notably forged closer ties with the EU and is set to discuss soon the strengthening of that partnership.

In Armenia in May, he emphasized that the EU and Canada were not “doomed” to submit to a “brutal” international order.

Carney was born in Fort Smith, a remote town in Canada’s Northwest Territories, and was raised in Edmonton, Alberta, a province rich in hydrocarbons.

He wants to construct a new pipeline to the Pacific in order to export Canadian oil to Asia and thus reduce the need to sell to the American market.

But by “putting his foot down” with Trump, Frederic Boily, a political science professor at the University of Alberta, says Carney “will now enter a somewhat more difficult phase” where he will have to manage the impact on Canada’s economy and his popularity.

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Türkiye’s largest metropolis, Istanbul, is set to host the second edition of the premier e-export summit next month. The event brings together dozens of global e-commerce platforms and speakers as global e-commerce trade volume is projected to reach $7 trillion this year.

The biennial Istanbul Global E-Export Summit (IGEXX 2026) will take place on Sept. 3-5 at Haliç Congress Center.

The summit is organized by the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM) in strategic collaboration with the Electronic Commerce Business Association (ETID), under the coordination of the Ministry of Trade.

This year’s gathering, the first following the inaugural one in 2024, is held under the theme “Beyond Borders,” underscoring the strategic role of e-commerce trade that transcends countries’ borders and is increasingly becoming part of strong competition.

The press briefing ahead of the summit was held at TIM’s complex in Istanbul on Wednesday, featuring the participation of Erbülent Kurşun, Deputy Director General of Exports at the Ministry of Trade; Çetin Tecdelioğlu, Vice Chair of the Board at TIM; Hasan Önal, head of the E-Export, Digital Marketing and Disruptive Technologies Department at the Ministry of Trade and ETID Secretary-General Ömer Gürkan.

In his speech, Tecdelioğlu stated: “In the 2024 summit, a transaction volume of over $1 billion was achieved. These are very significant numbers and had a positive impact on our exports in 2024.”

Tecdelioğlu also noted that the world is at a historic turning point and said consumers can now shop from the other side of the world with a single touch.

“In this new era, and this new trade order, as Türkiye, we must be a game-changer at the table,” he said.

“We have to become producers who sustain and sell the ‘Made in Türkiye’ brand globally, by being part of global supply chains and the consumption in all marketplaces,” he added.

Tecdelioğlu also mentioned that e-commerce volume in the country has reached TL 4.5 trillion, or about $115 billion.

He also said that the goal “is to increase the share of e-exports in total exports to 10%.”

Önal, for his part, pointed out that awareness of e-commerce increased during the pandemic, stating that global e-commerce totaled $3.2 trillion in 2019 and is expected to reach $7 trillion by 2026.

He also said that this year’s summit is expected to host 50 marketplaces and feature 28 panels and some 108 speakers, compared to 30 marketplaces and some 90 speakers in 2024.

“Close to or perhaps slightly over 40% of global e-commerce will be present at the Haliç Congress Center,” he said.

The summit will feature discussions on topics such as AI-supported trade, new-generation e-commerce, smart logistics, sustainable trade, social trade and others.

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Canada issued a strong warning to its businesses against economic or financial involvement with illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, citing mounting legal, financial and reputational risks.

Global Affairs Canada and the Canadian Trade Commissioner Service urged Canadian companies to avoid activities that directly or indirectly support or facilitate settlements or related violence.

The advisory covers investments, financial transactions, procurement, purchases and tourism connected to settlement activity.

Ottawa reiterated its position that Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem are illegal under international law and represent a major obstacle to a two-state solution.

The government said settlement expansion and extremist settler violence contribute to instability, raise human rights concerns and undermine prospects for a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.

Canadian authorities warned that businesses linked to settlements could become involved in disputes over land, water, minerals and other natural resources. Companies could also face increased scrutiny from investors, business partners and civil society groups.

The government called on companies operating abroad to conduct enhanced due diligence across their operations, supply chains, business relationships and end users to ensure they do not contribute directly or indirectly to adverse human rights impacts.

Businesses that identify such risks should consider measures ranging from reassessing or suspending their activities to terminating them altogether, the advisory said.

Ottawa also warned that companies failing to participate in good faith in Canada’s voluntary dispute resolution mechanism for responsible business conduct could lose support from the Trade Commissioner Service and potentially from Export Development Canada and the Canadian Commercial Corporation.

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The “economic onslaught” on Iran’s financial connections around the world that U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared earlier this week may have one major caveat: China.

Beijing is Iran’s biggest trading partner and its leading oil buyer.

While the U.S. is trying to isolate the Islamic Republic from its remaining economic partners, U.S. President Donald Trump also is preparing to host Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month to maintain a fragile trade truce.

Absent from Bessent’s remarks this week were specifics about how the Trump administration would target China, casting doubts on how effective the new campaign would be when the U.S. must balance putting maximum pressure on Iran and avoiding higher tensions with China that could be costly to the American economy.

“The announcement yesterday was very careful in my view to avoid specifics (against China), which could have led to a disruption in the summit,” Edgard Kagan, senior adviser and Freeman Chair in China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Tuesday.

“For Xi, a state visit to Washington is a big deal; and for Trump, hosting it is a big deal.”

That means both Washington and Beijing will have a dance to do, said Kagan, who served as U.S. ambassador to Malaysia from December 2023 until this February.

“I think the real question is, is there room to push (the Chinese) to reduce what they’re doing with Iran, to put more pressure on the Iranian regime in a way that doesn’t lead them to say, ‘This is unreasonable, and we’re not going to comply,’” he said.

In response to “Operation Economic Outcast,” which Bessent announced Monday, Beijing said its cooperation with Iran has always been “within the framework of international law.” China receives more than 80% of Iranian oil shipments but usually through indirect channels.

Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said China-Iran cooperation “should not be disrupted or undermined.”

“China is closely monitoring relevant developments and will take all necessary measures to resolutely safeguard its own rights and interests,” Lin said. He repeated China’s opposition to “illegal unilateral sanctions.”

Kagan described Beijing’s remarks as “a holding response” and said Beijing will try to do the least to comply without openly confronting the U.S.

“They’ve tended to be careful, not crossing explicit red lines, but they haven’t addressed the spirit of what the U.S. has sought,” Kagan said, pointing to practices such as ship-to-ship oil transfers that obscure the origin of Iranian crude oil to evade American sanctions.

Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington think tank, said China will not go along with the new campaign if the U.S. goal is to destroy the Iranian economy and seek the government’s collapse.

But “if the goal is to exert enough pressure for Iran to make concessions on the Strait of Hormuz and potentially ending the conflict, I think China can and will demonstrate its cooperation without having to completely sever ties with Iran,” Sun said.

“China only needs to do enough to demonstrate it is cooperating, such as cut back on its oil imports from Iran.”

‘Neither side wishes major escalation’

With a planned summit between Trump and Xi weeks away, “neither side wishes to have a major escalation bilaterally at this point,” she said.

“China needs to give the U.S. something, and the U.S. needs to understand and accept that it is not going to be everything the U.S. asks for.”

So far, the Trump administration has refrained from imposing sanctions on major Chinese businesses or banks connected to the U.S. financial system and thus vulnerable to American penalties.

The Treasury Department said Monday that it was penalizing nearly 60 Iran-linked entities, accusing them of involvement in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, cyber activities and oil shipments.

It targeted some entities and individuals based in mainland China and Hong Kong for supporting Iran’s missile and nuclear programs. It sanctioned a China-owned crude oil tanker for transporting millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China this year as well as a Hong Kong-based business for its role in the shadow fleet that ships out Iranian oil.

With Xi’s visit coming up, Trump may not act tough on China now, said Ali Wyne, senior research and advocacy adviser on U.S.-China relations at the International Crisis Group.

“Given how keen Trump has been to maintain both a trade truce between the United States and China and his personal rapport with Xi, he seems unlikely to do a volte-face just a month before Xi’s state visit and adopt a highly confrontational posture,” he said.

Plus, Xi’s visit to the U.S. could pave the way for Trump to return to China in November for the leaders summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping.

In his second term, Trump has been less hawkish on China than in his first presidency and frequently touts his good relationship with Xi following a major trade war last year that featured back-and-forth escalating tariffs.

The U.S. business community also welcomes Xi’s visit, saying it’s a good sign if the two leaders meet in person, even when any substantial deals may be elusive.

“Beijing is betting that Washington will be reluctant to jeopardize the current leader-level dynamic by targeting major Chinese entities before the summit,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.

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The cost of insuring exposure to Türkiye’s sovereign debt fell Wednesday to its lowest level in about six-and-a-half months, as expectations of easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and steps by the central bank on liquidity management supported investor sentiment.

Türkiye’s five-year credit default swaps – a form of insurance for bondholders – fell to 217 basis points, a level not seen since Feb. 18, days before the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran. The premium had soared to above 320 basis points around early April.

Emerging-market risk premiums have generally declined as signs of a possible easing in tensions between the U.S. and Iran raised hopes for renewed diplomatic talks and a more lasting resolution to the conflict.

Reports that the U.S. government is preparing to return diplomats to some embassies evacuated during the war, along with comments from mediating countries that negotiations between the sides could resume, helped improve sentiment.

The developments also eased concerns over energy supplies, sending oil prices sharply lower. Brent crude futures for October delivery fell 3.9% to $88.60 a barrel, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined about seven basis points to 4.63%.

CBRT liquidity move supports risk sentiment

Domestic developments also contributed to the decline in Türkiye’s risk premium.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Monday resumed one-week repo auctions, which had been suspended since March due to heightened market volatility following the outbreak of the Iran war.

During the suspension, banks’ liquidity needs were largely met through the CBRT’s overnight lending facility at a 40% rate.

The resumption of weekly repo operations is viewed as a signal that the central bank was moving back toward its normal operational liquidity framework.

The move strengthened expectations that banks’ funding costs could move closer to the 37% policy rate and that market interest rates could decline.

Türkiye’s two-year bond yield also fell below 40% for the first time since July 2, while longer-dated yields edged down more modestly.

Several factors behind CDS decline

Spinn Consulting founding partner and economist Özlem Derici Şengül said several factors were behind the decline in Türkiye’s CDS, with the biggest immediate impact coming from lower bond yields.

She said inflation expectations and other macroeconomic risks had not yet improved significantly, making the decline in bond yields a more important driver of the fall in the country risk premium.

According to Şengül, the resumption of weekly repo auctions could also be considered one of the factors, but she noted this is yet to be reflected in actual funding costs.

“The factors coming to the fore are global conditions, the decline in oil prices and the easing of the war to some extent,” she said, adding that expectations of a possible CBRT rate cut and stronger reserves were also supporting the decline in CDS.

She cautioned that risks remained, including the possibility that U.S. sanctions on Iran could affect Türkiye, particularly given the country’s imports of Iranian natural gas.

A renewed escalation in the conflict could push oil prices higher again, while deterioration in inflation expectations or a slowdown in reserve accumulation could also limit the decline in Türkiye’s risk premium.

‘Critical signal’

Seda Yalçınkaya Özer, head of strategy and investment advisory at Yatırım Finansman, said Türkiye’s CDS move should be viewed against both global and domestic developments.

She said expectations of diplomacy involving Iran, Pakistan and Oman, along with the U.S. avoiding direct sanctions on Chinese banks, had reduced the risk premium embedded in oil prices.

“There is a general narrowing in emerging-market risk premiums globally,” Özer said, noting that the easing of tensions in the Middle East and lower commodity prices had boosted risk appetite across emerging markets rather than Türkiye alone.

She cautioned that a potential Iranian retaliation could quickly reverse current market pricing.

For Türkiye, however, oil prices below $90 a barrel are clearly positive for the current account balance, fuel prices, inflation and the CBRT’s room for monetary policy, she said.

Özer also described the CBRT’s return to weekly repo auctions after roughly six months as a “critical signal.”

Moving funding costs from around 40% overnight toward the 37% policy rate could be interpreted as a concrete step toward easing financial conditions and has brought the possibility of a rate cut in September back into focus, she said.

“The market is pricing this as confirmation that the normalization process is continuing, alongside a gradual slowdown in inflation.”

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Six months into the U.S.-Iran war, Qatar is among the conflict’s biggest economic casualties, with its liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports slashed by 96%, data shows.

Saudi ⁠Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq and Kuwait have seen their oil exports hit, but by nowhere near as much.

Qatar has lost $24 billion in gas sales, which is about five months’ worth of income for the country based on 2025 data, according to calculations reported by Reuters

While neighboring Gulf exporters have managed to sneak oil secretly out of the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar has exported just 18 LNG cargoes, ⁠down from 509 in the same period last year, according to data intelligence firm ICIS. Two Qatari tankers have been attacked.

Before the ⁠war, Qatar supplied about one-fifth of the world’s daily LNG. Exports from the U.S. have offset some of that lost supply.

Still, European gas ⁠storage has fallen to a historic low for the time of year, exposing the continent to possible gas price spikes in ⁠the event of a cold winter this year.

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