Economy
Why oil prices haven’t gone crazy despite 5 months of US-Iran war
As the United States and Israel went to war with Iran at the end of February, analysts predicted the price of crude oil could hit $150 a barrel or even rise as far as $200, with the fifth of global supply that transits the vital Strait of Hormuz suddenly cut off from world markets.
But, Brent crude futures peaked around $126 – comfortably below 2008’s all-time high of $147 – and averaged just $101 a barrel between the start of the conflict on Feb. 28 and June 11 when U.S. President Donald Trump called off strikes on Iran, before briefly retreating to pre-war levels of $70 in early July.
Below are some of the reasons why the oil price hasn’t gone crazy. Yet.
1. Chinese surprise
The biggest surprise was China, the world’s largest oil importer, which had slashed crude imports to the lowest in nearly a decade by June. Fuel exports were curbed, its population started using electric taxis instead of personal cars and its petrochemical sector also reduced volumes.
2. U.S. pumps more
The United States, the world’s largest oil producer, pumped more crude, with production reaching a record 13.93 million barrels per day by April. It also freed crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a record 400 million-barrel release coordinated by the International Energy Agency in March, helping cushion supply disruptions.
3. Trump burns bulls
U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly wrong-footed oil market bulls by making statements about peace agreements and the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil market liquidity has dropped as many traders have become reluctant to make large bullish bets amid the risk of sudden market reversals.
“Everybody is bullish now, but nobody is long,” said Ilia Bouchouev of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
After driving their bullish position in Brent futures to its smallest this year in early July, funds then made their largest addition in six months in the week to July 14, according to data from the ICE exchange on Friday.
However, at around $14.8 billion based on Monday’s prices, this position is still more than 50% below late March’s six-year peak.
The market is suffering from headline fatigue, which reduces the price impact of fresh announcements, said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.
4. Hormuz flows rebound
Saudi Arabia, the biggest Gulf oil exporter, sharply increased shipments from its Red Sea Yanbu port, helping to offset the loss of barrels via the Strait of Hormuz.
Hormuz shipments briefly restarted in June, easing concerns about crude availability, but dropped again in July as the fighting resumed.
5. Amply supply of prompt physical cargoes
Traders say there is an ample supply of physical oil, limiting the price reaction to the latest escalation in the conflict. Crude oil differentials in Europe, such as North Sea Forties, that help set the global dated Brent benchmark have fallen to a discount from a record premium in April.
“There is a lot of prompt crude around for now,” said veteran trader Adi Imsirovic. “It may not last!”
Türkiye’s combined electricity generation from solar and wind sources reached a record 9.9 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in August, the highest level on record, according to the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry.
Solar power generation stood at 5.16 billion kWh in August, while wind generation reached 4.74 billion kWh, the ministry said Tuesday.
Solar accounted for 14.1% of total electricity generation during the month, while wind’s share was 12.9%. Combined, the two sources generated a record 9.9 billion kWh.
Hydropower remains largest source
Türkiye generated 36.71 billion kWh of electricity in August, with hydropower maintaining its position as the largest source.
Hydropower accounted for 24.7% of total generation, producing 9.08 billion kWh during the month.
Renewable sources accounted for 56.4% of total generation, at 20.7 billion kWh, while domestic sources accounted for 69.7%, or 25.58 billion kWh.
Daily electricity generation also reached its highest level of the year so far in August. The daily record was set on Aug. 13, when generation reached 1,241,291 megawatt-hours.
Domestic generation reaches record share
During the January-August period, hydropower generation reached 75.2 billion kWh, wind generation 30.4 billion kWh and solar generation 29.8 billion kWh, marking the highest levels recorded for the corresponding period since 2000.
Domestic sources accounted for 73.2% of electricity generation during the period, producing 181.8 billion kWh. Both the volume and share were the highest for the corresponding period since 2000.
Renewable sources accounted for 60.3% of generation, at 149.8 billion kWh, also representing the highest volume and share for the corresponding period since 2000.
Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Türkiye aimed to build a strong energy infrastructure through long-term investments in renewable energy.
“Our long-term investments in renewable energy infrastructure continue to translate into record generation figures,” Bayraktar said.
“Our goal is not only to meet today’s energy demand, but to build a strong, sustainable and innovative infrastructure that is completely free from external dependence,” he said.
Bayraktar added that Türkiye would continue integrating its substantial solar and wind potential into the grid using advanced technologies as it pursues its goal of achieving full energy independence.
Justice Minister Akın Gürlek said Tuesday that 85 suspects had been arrested so far in the investigation into Türkiye’s fund turmoil, and that five people had already handed back money they made through what he called “unjust gains.”
Gürlek said authorities would recover such profits from others who made them through market manipulation.
Regulators last month ordered the liquidation of over 130 investment funds managed by seven asset managers following warnings by some that they could not meet redemption payments.
Authorities have widened their investigation into suspected market manipulation in stocks and fund markets.
Legal action has been taken against 207 people in total, with measures imposed on the assets of many of them, Gürlek told Anadolu Agency (AA).
The funds ordered to be wound down had reached more than $20 billion in assets over just three years. About half a million investors have been affected.
Türkiye’s Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF) has opened accounts for investors seeking to return what authorities describe as “excessive gains” from fund sales.
Gürlek said five people had returned their unjust gains so far. Reports said among them was Fatma Betül Sayan Kaya, who resigned as a deputy chair of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) after she and her husband were alleged to have made substantial profits trading shares ahead of the turmoil.
Profits made by people who earned excessive gains over a short period would be transferred to a fund set up within the TMSF, the minister said.
“We will pursue our rights to the end within the framework of the law,” Gürlek said.
Gürlek drew a line between two kinds of earnings. Legitimate profit, he said, comes from citizens putting their savings into stocks and the stock market. The other kind came from so-called “bubble” stocks, where traders made abnormal profits by moving in and out quickly.
He said investigators had found that some people in closed and open funds had acted on tips and inside information, and used manipulative trades to make “extraordinary” profits over a short time.
He said the Istanbul Chief Prosecutor’s Office, working with data from the Capital Markets Board (SPK), Borsa Istanbul Stock Exchange and the Central Registry Agency, had frozen the assets of people who made abnormal gains.
Some of them had been arrested, he said, and others had fled. He said the process was continuing.
Gürlek said his ministry first noticed unusual movement in some funds and shares in February 2025 and wrote to the SPK about it. Citizens’ complaints then increased sharply in August 2026. Permission to investigate was granted later that month, he said.
Gürlek said the State Supervisory Council (DDK) had been tasked with examining whether any public institutions were negligent.
He said the Turkish market and economy were very strong and that a problem in a small part of the market should not be generalized.
The U.S. trade deficit surged more than analysts expected in August, government data showed Tuesday, hovering at its widest level since March 2025, driven by imports of oil and advanced tech products like chips.
The trade gap in the world’s biggest economy jumped 13.7% to $105.6 billion, according to Commerce Department data.
This was larger than the $102 billion projected in a consensus forecast released by MarketWatch.
U.S. trade flows have swung significantly since President Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, as businesses rushed to get ahead of his sweeping, and fast-changing tariffs on trading partners.
The latest figures, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, also reflect a surge in global energy prices from the war in the Middle East.
U.S.-Israel strikes targeting Iran in late February had triggered Tehran’s response in blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy transport, which sent oil prices soaring.
Both sides remain locked in conflict.
In August, U.S. imports rose by 4.3% to $420.8 billion, driven by crude oil, gold, semiconductors and industrial machinery.
U.S. exports climbed by 1.4% to $315.2 billion, partially driven by energy exports too.
German factory orders dropped sharply in August, more than forecasted, as large-scale orders for aircraft, ships, trains and military vehicles declined, official data showed Tuesday, underscoring the fragility of a recovery in Europe’s biggest economy.
New orders, a key indicator of future business activity, were down 10.6% from a month earlier due to a drop in large-scale domestic orders, according to provisional data from Destatis.
It was the first decline in four months and more than the 1% decrease forecast by analysts surveyed by the financial data firm FactSet and Reuters.
The long-stagnant German economy has been slowly recovering on the back of massive public spending, with some recent data generally pointing to signs of growing strength.
The economy ministry said August’s order data thus represented a “marked setback.”
The decline was entirely attributable to a 61.5% slump in what the statistics office classifies as “other transport equipment,” a category that more than doubled in July due to an exceptionally high volume of large-scale orders of ships, railway rolling stock and aircraft.
When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders in August were 0.1% lower than in the previous month.
Weak figures likely to drag on Q3 growth
The weak figures suggest industry will weigh on third-quarter economic growth after helping to drive expansion in the first half of 2026, although analysts expect a rebound in the fourth quarter as government contracts pick up.
The German economy grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, prompting the government to raise its full-year forecast to 1.3%.
Much of the momentum seen in German industry so far this year has been driven by defense spending.
“Excluding these highly volatile large orders, bookings in the manufacturing sector have been treading water for months,” said Jupp Zenze, economic expert at the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
“Broad-based economic momentum remains absent.”
Economist points to full order books
The three-month comparison, which strips out some of the month-on-month volatility, showed that new orders in the period from June to August were 1.3% higher than in the previous three months.
Based on the figures available so far, the industrial sector likely slowed growth of the German economy in the third quarter, in contrast to the first half of the year, said Commerzbank senior economist Ralph Solveen.
However, Solveen expects this trend to reverse in the fourth quarter, as the government is likely to issue more contracts, which should have a positive long-term impact on sales and production.
“This outlook is also supported by the significant improvement in business sentiment over the past few months,” he said.
After revision of provisional data, new orders in July increased by 3.2% compared with the previous month, up from the previously estimated 2.5%.
According to the latest data from July, the order backlog provided coverage for a record nine months, said Marc Schattenberg, economist at Deutsche Bank.
“The disappointingly weak August figures should be viewed in the context of already very full order books,” Schattenberg said.
Foreign orders were down 5.4% in August on the month, with orders from the euro zone registering a decline of 5.4% and orders from outside the eurozone decreasing by 5.5%. Domestic orders declined by 17.3% on the month.
Spain’s government on Tuesday approved emergency measures to address the housing crisis, after an outbreak of violence in the coastal city of Barcelona the previous night that drew tens of thousands of people into the streets.
The Barcelona turmoil late on Monday followed protests across the country over the weekend that demanded measures to resolve a crisis sparked by the eviction of an 87-year-old woman in Madrid, the country’s capital.
In Barcelona, Spain’s second-largest city, a severe weather alert over the weekend had forced organizers to reschedule the protest for Monday. What began as a massive peaceful march turned violent when groups of hundreds of hardcore activists clashed with police, throwing stones and setting fire to trash containers.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s government approved measures similar to those rejected by Parliament last Friday, which prompted his call for early elections on Nov. 29. The measures will be sent for ratification by an interim legislature, which remains active until the elections.
The smaller, interim legislature – known as “permanent commission” – is composed of 69 members, compared to the 350 that sit in the regular Parliament.
Alejandro Quiroga, professor of political science at Madrid’s Complutense University, said the maneuver of having decrees approved by the interim legislature was constitutional but also a necessary political move by Sanchez.
“I don’t think Sanchez had an alternative,” Quiroga told the Associated Press (AP). “If you are calling early elections so you can keep the public’s focus on housing, you can’t just sit back and do nothing about it. That wouldn’t have been smart.”
The new measures are to extend protection against evictions for vulnerable Spaniards until 2030, regulate room rentals, impose a new tax on seasonal rentals, ban speculative real estate purchases and give tax breaks to landlords, Housing Minister Isabel Rodriguez told reporters last week.
Rising costs and a housing shortage are pricing many Spaniards out of the housing market, despite strong economic growth in Europe’s fourth-largest economy.
The protesters have been demanding stronger protections for tenants, measures to combat fraud and a ban on evictions when alternative housing is unavailable.
Dario Amodei took home $18 million last year as chief executive of Claude AI developer Anthropic, according to the company’s IPO filing, putting his compensation roughly in the middle tier among leading technology executives.
Anthropic is preparing for an initial public offering as early as this fall that could value it at more than $2 trillion, according to its IPO prospectus reported by Reuters. Amodei’s pay last year puts him above CEOs at Alphabet and Amazon, but behind those at Oracle and Nvidia.
Amodei’s pay leans heavily toward stock and other sorts of compensation, suggesting that, like many other tech founders, his yearly salary will account for just a fraction of his wealth.
Amodei and his sister, Anthropic President Daniela Amodei, each had their annual salaries doubled in July to $1.4 million. Stock and options awards made up the bulk of their packages in 2025, with Daniela Amodei receiving a total of $16.4 million last year.
Anthropic’s board this year granted the pair the promise of further equity in the form of restricted stock units, which promise a future payout if certain conditions are met. Some of that is tied to their remaining at the company, and some of it is tied to the IPO.
Chief Financial Officer Krishna Rao earned $720,250 last year. He was granted options to buy 1.4 million shares when he was hired in 2024, and exercised options worth $385,285 in 2025.
Middle of the pack
The rise in U.S. CEO pay in recent years has far outpaced the gains for the average worker, a dynamic critics worry could be exacerbated by AI’s widespread adoption.
S&P 500 CEO average annual compensation rose 21% to $22.8 million last year, and that does not include the extraordinary case of Tesla’s Elon Musk and his $158 billion restricted stock plan, according to the AFL-CIO.
Courtney Yu, director of research for executive compensation data firm Equilar, said Amodei’s $18 million haul “seems on the lower end for a company valued at $2 trillion, but it will be interesting to see how that changes once the company goes public” and his full ownership stake is shown.
With six other co-founders, Amodei may wind up getting a lesser share of the wealth created by the IPO compared with other major tech CEOs, Yu added.
Top executives at AI-focused tech firms earned amounts that varied widely in 2025, based on SEC filings.
At the high end, Oracle co-CEO Clayton Magouyrk earned $627.5 million, while the lowest was the $54,080 paid to Musk as CEO of SpaceX, before it went public. SpaceX has also promised super-voting restricted shares to Musk, already the world’s richest person, if the company’s market value grows to $7.5 trillion and the firm puts 1 million people on Mars.
Other giant companies pay less on a year-by-year basis, with executives benefiting from enormous stock ownership while having only salary and security costs reflected in annual filings.
For instance, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai made $10.9 million in 2025, including $8.8 million for personal security “due to Sundar’s significant public profile.” By “compensation actually paid,” Pichai earned $213.9 million last year, which, among other things, reflects the change in value of his unvested shares.
Amazon CEO Andrew Jassy made $2.1 million in 2025, a disclosure said, mainly reflecting travel and security. On an “actually paid” basis, Jassy received $13.2 million.
Living off the stock
Equilar’s Yu said the disclosures show how these executives don’t need to worry about year-by-year pay.
“Founder CEOs typically own enough equity that when the company does well and the stock price increases, they can just live off the wealth of the equity they already own, and typically don’t take in a lot in annual compensation,” Yu said.
Anthropic said in the filing it offered a mix of salary, equity awards, and other benefits. The S-1 statement reported by Reuters does not describe the founders’ share of ownership in the company, which could be worth billions of dollars, depending on the final terms and valuation of the IPO.
The Amodei siblings and their fellow co-founders pledged in the IPO filing to dedicate 80% of their personal Anthropic equity to charitable causes.
Asked about the 80% figure Monday, an Anthropic spokesperson noted an essay Dario Amodei posted earlier this year, where he wrote that wealthy individuals have an obligation to help address problems stemming from AI adoption, and decried that many wealthy people, particularly in the tech industry, “have recently adopted a cynical and nihilistic attitude that philanthropy is inevitably fraudulent or useless.”
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