Economy
World food inflation set to accelerate as supply shocks pile up
Muhamad Yasin, a 63-year-old parking attendant in central Jakarta, says he has cut back on meals as rising prices have put food staples beyond his reach.
“I used to be able to get rice, tempeh and tofu for 7,000 to 8,000 rupiah ($0.39 to $0.44). Now it’s 15,000 rupiah,” said Yasin, who earns 200,000 to 300,000 rupiah a week, beside the minimarket where he watches over parked motorcycles.
Global food inflation is poised to accelerate in the coming months and persist well into 2027, as war-related shipping disruptions and El Nino-driven drought squeeze cereal supplies, putting additional pressure on vulnerable consumers like Yasin, a father of four.
In Indonesia, rice prices have already jumped to record highs amid forecasts of delayed rains, while the cost of bread in Egypt has risen by a quarter and sugar prices in India hit an all-time high as the weakest monsoon in over a decade curbed production.
“All this has put considerable pressure on the system,” said Maximo Torero, chief economist at the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
“We will see a bigger impact towards the end of the year, at the beginning of next year and potentially throughout next year.”
The world’s poorest consumers are being hit the hardest as food prices rise sharply in low- and middle-income countries across the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, where food accounts for a larger share of household spending.
According to the World Bank, food prices in the September quarter outpaced headline inflation in 22% of the 150 countries it analysed, up from 14% in the previous quarter.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded commodities, averaged 136 points in September, the highest reading since November 2022.
Rising prices heighten the risk of social unrest and could prompt governments that are key suppliers to impose export bans, further exacerbating shortages.
Multiple supply shocks
Attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted wheat shipments, forcing top importers Egypt and Indonesia to seek alternative supplies, while Red Sea insecurity diverts vessels onto longer, costlier routes around Africa.
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has raised fuel prices and disrupted fertilizer exports through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up farming costs even as dry El Nino weather reduces output in India and Southeast Asia.
Wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026, while rice prices in key Asian exporting countries have risen 10% to 13% in spite of large inventories. Fertilizer prices are off the peaks reached earlier in the Iran war, but they remain elevated.
“Rising inflation, particularly food inflation, is a reality,” said Manish Tiwary, chair and managing director of Nestle India, citing “a challenging environment” that is due in part to higher commodity costs.
In Egypt, prices of unsubsidized bread have risen to around 5 Egyptian pounds ($0.093) for a big loaf from 4 pounds in July, while the price of cooking oil has climbed about 40% in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Vegetable oil in Indonesia has jumped 7% this year, even though the country is the world’s biggest palm oil producer.
Prices of sugar, onions and pulses in India jumped more than 10% in September from a month earlier due to production shortfalls.
For baker Sayed Abdel Hamid Mohamed in downtown Cairo, it is not just the price of flour.
“If you bring in a skilled worker, it costs you a lot,” he said. “Electricity, water, yeast and the materials we use to produce the loaf of bread for consumers have all risen.”
Tarek Azab, a customer at the bakery, said prices have been continuously rising, “not once, twice, or three times,” in the past few years.
Freight rates have risen about 50% on some key global routes such as the Black Sea to Southeast Asia as oil prices and war premiums surge.
Inflation catalyst
While food prices have been rising since late 2025, dwindling local supplies and higher commodity costs feeding through to consumers threaten to accelerate inflation.
Key importers in the Middle East and Africa that held off on buying after strong local harvests now need to return to the world’s markets, potentially triggering a surge in demand.
“In a couple of months, there could be a significant new wave of demand as importers return to the market,” said Alexander Karavaytsev, a senior economist at the International Grains Council in London.
The cushion from record global grain inventories is wearing thin, the FAO’s Torero said.
“Stocks and good harvests in previous seasons have provided a buffer, but those buffers are starting to come under pressure,” he said. “That means commodity price increases could become more pronounced.”
Food processors that typically buy raw materials on three- to six-month contracts are now renewing those deals at higher prices, with weaker local currencies magnifying the costs.
“Shipping costs have also increased and when converted into rupiah, the impact is amplified by the weakening of the Indonesian currency,” said Franciscus Welirang, a director of PT Indofood, the country’s largest food company.
On top of higher prices, food processors are experiencing difficulties in securing supplies, traders said.
Several wheat millers in Indonesia are running their units below capacity as the Russia-Ukraine war has reduced cargo arrivals, said a senior executive at a flour milling company in Jakarta who did not want to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media.
Indonesian wheat arrivals dropped 41% to 491,000 metric tons in September from a year earlier, Kpler data showed.
For now, soybean and corn inventories are ample, with future supplies hinging on production in the U.S. and South America, although higher oil prices have supported both crops because of their growing use in biofuels.
Favorable Southern Hemisphere wheat harvests are expected, and any downside risk to output in exporters like Australia and Argentina could add a new bullish element to prices, the IGC’s Karavaytsev said.
“There is significant upside risk in prices,” he said.
Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Sprüngli announced Monday it was parting ways with chief executive Adalbert Lechner after issuing two revenue warnings within a year.
The board of directors said new leadership was needed to put the company, known for its Lindor chocolate truffles and chocolate Easter bunnies, back on a path to sustained growth.
“The Board of Directors has concluded that Lindt & Sprüngli requires new operational leadership to return to consistent, strong growth and to capture opportunities in all its markets globally,” the company said in a statement.
Former chief executive Dieter Weisskopf, 71, will take over as interim CEO with immediate effect, the company said in a statement from its headquarters in Kilchberg, Switzerland.
Weisskopf, who is also vice chair of the board of directors, previously served as the company’s chief financial officer for many years and led the group until 2022.
A permanent successor is expected to be appointed in the second quarter of 2027.
Lechner, 65, had worked for Lindt for 33 years and took over as chief executive in early 2022. The company provided no further details about the circumstances of his departure.
Executive chair Ernst Tanner thanked Lechner for his contribution to the company and expressed confidence in its future.
“Our brands and market positions are strong, and our focus continues to be on delivering exceptional products and experiences for our consumers and on profitable growth for our shareholders,” Tanner said.
Lindt & Sprüngli has been struggling with declining sales volumes for months after sharply raising prices in response to soaring cocoa costs.
The company increased prices by an average of 11.8% in the first half of 2026, while the volume of products sold fell significantly.
In July, Lindt reported slightly higher first-half earnings but said its performance had been affected by higher prices, geopolitical tensions, market volatility and inflation.
Consumers in Germany, Switzerland and Britain proved more sensitive to the higher prices than expected, prompting Lindt to begin cutting prices on selected products over the summer. The company has also introduced smaller packaging.
In late September, Lindt lowered its sales forecast for the second time this year. It now expects organic sales growth of just 0% to 2% in 2026, down from its original forecast of 6% to 8%.
In addition to higher prices, summer heat in Europe weighed on business. The revised outlook triggered a sharp fall in the company’s share price.
Weisskopf will now focus on restoring growth in Europe, while increasing investment in the company’s brands and improving profitability. Business in North America and Asia has been performing significantly better.
Lindt is also replacing the head of its German operations.
Michal Spiller is leaving the company after 23 years and will be succeeded by Ali Kulein, who currently heads Lindt’s Austrian business.
Hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost in German industry since 2019, according to new figures published Monday, as manufacturers grapple with mounting competitive pressure.
German industrial businesses employed some 496,000 fewer people at the end of 2025 compared to the start of 2019, a decline of 7.1%, according to a survey conducted by the ifo Institute economic think tank.
Employment is shrinking in almost all industrial sectors, which is likely a result of declining competitiveness, particularly against China, the study said.
The core automotive industry, long considered the backbone of Europe’s biggest economy, has been particularly hard hit, with 123,500 job cuts across carmakers and suppliers, a decline of 13%.
Metal businesses also shed jobs, employing 115,600 fewer workers, while 64,500 jobs have been cut across the machinery sector, according to ifo.
These three sectors account for around 60% of the cuts, according to calculations.
By contrast, over 2.2 million additional jobs have been created in the service sector since 2019, mainly in health, social services and public administration, the institute found.
Ifo counted 391,000 new jobs in the health sector and another 357,000 additional posts in social services, including care homes, pointing to Germany’s ageing population.
Joachim Ragnitz, managing director at ifo, said that the development reflected an “accelerated structural shift” in Germany.
“Ironically, the very sectors that have sustained our prosperity up to now are shrinking,” he said.
“The new jobs are for the most part not being created where Germany is especially productive and innovative. That may slow down our growth potential in the future.”
Every child in the United States will be given a share in rocket company SpaceX, tech billionaire Elon Musk announced Monday.
“Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America,” Musk, the richest man in the world, said on the social media platform X.
“This will be the first of many,” he said, without providing details about how the scheme would work.
There are around 73 million children under the age of 18 in the United States, according to 2024 data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Musk owns 38% of SpaceX, according to Forbes.
His announcement comes after President Donald Trump promised last month to give every American adult $5,000 if his Republican party retains control of Congress in November’s midterm elections.
SpaceX set the record for the largest initial public offering in history, raising $85.7 billion in June.
The company’s Starship megarocket reached orbit for the first time in September, a milestone for the rocket central to Musk’s Mars ambitions.
Embattled German carmaker Volkswagen plans to freeze salaries for its staff worldwide at 2026 levels until 2030, the group’s works council said Monday.
Volkswagen’s executive board instructed human resources managers worldwide to suspend pay increases, according to the company’s Global Works Council.
The council said it had received internal information about the executive board’s plans. Volkswagen declined to comment on “speculation.”
A spokesperson added that a new round of talks later this week would be the forum for any proposals on labor costs.
The directive has been in effect since early October, replacing a budgeting approach that allowed compensation for inflation and locally negotiated wage increases, the council said.
It called the management’s approach “absurd” and said it expected strong resistance to what is described as the plan’s “rather unrealistic” implementation.
“At Volkswagen, pay development is decided at the negotiating table, not by decree from the executive boardroom,” a spokesperson for Germany’s trade union IG Metall said
IG Metall is seeking a 5% wage increase over 12 months.
Volkswagen employs more than 660,000 people worldwide, including 275,000 in Germany.
Works Council President Daniela Cavallo asked management Sunday evening to explain the plan to employees.
Relations between Volkswagen and its labor representatives have deteriorated in recent months, as CEO Oliver Blume pushes ahead with the most radical restructuring in the German auto group’s history.
The Sueddeutsche Zeitung reported the news earlier Monday, citing internal documents.
The absence of pay rises could mean a loss of income of around 10% for those affected, due to inflation, the paper said.
The report said the new global management guidelines, effective from the fourth quarter, also include cuts to variable pay, special payments, benefits and jobs.
Türkiye will take some of the diesel Russia is supplying to global markets under its agreement with U.S. President Donald Trump, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Sunday.
Bayraktar said the U.S.-Russia diesel supply deal was important in terms of energy security for Türkiye. Ankara relies on Russia for some of its energy needs, as well as on Iran, Azerbaijan and others. It is trying to diversify through deals with the U.S. and other partners.
“Russia imposed restrictions on diesel exports in recent months when they started experiencing this problem. Now they reached a diesel deal with Trump… Through the talks we held, we will take some of that diesel to Türkiye,” Bayraktar told broadcaster Kanal 7. He did not elaborate.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, European officials and some of Trump’s fellow Republican politicians strongly criticised the deal.
Bayraktar also said that Türkiye plans to bring a second floating gas production platform online in the first quarter of 2028, adding that the platform would bring Türkiye’s daily output in the Black Sea to 45 million cubic metres.
On Saturday, Türkiye sent its first floating gas production platform, the Osman Gazi, to the Black Sea, a move Bayraktar has said is expected to roughly double daily output from its largest domestic gas field, the Sakarya field, to 20 million cubic metres from the current 9.5 million, equivalent to 7.3 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually.
“In the first quarter of 2028, the second floating production platform is coming to Türkiye and we will carry out 25 million cubic metres of production with it. It has a slightly bigger capacity (than Osman Gazi),” he said.
“Therefore, with 45 million cubic metres, we will be using our own gas in three out of four homes in Türkiye.”
He added that Türkiye’s daily production at the field would increase to 550,000 barrels of oil equivalent with the second floating platform.
Türkiye is one of Europe’s largest gas markets, consuming 59 bcm last year. The country relies on imports for almost all its gas needs, with domestic production totalling 3.1 bcm last year, most of it from the Sakarya field.
Bayraktar also said hydrocarbon exploration operations planned off Pakistan had been delayed by about six months due to the Iran war’s impact on the region.
Chinese economy expanded by 4.5% in the third quarter, fueled by robust exports, moving closer to meeting its official annual growth target for the year as its trading partners seek to balance their trade deficits with the country.
The better-than-expected data accelerated from the 4.3% year-over-year growth recorded in the April-June period, which was the slowest expansion in more than three years.
For the whole year, Chinese leaders have set a growth target of 4.5%-5%, down from last year’s 5% expansion. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its forecast for China’s 2026 economic growth to 4.5%, the lower end of Beijing’s goal.
“Domestic demand was weak, while trade grew strongly,” said Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. Exports will likely stay strong, but global trade barriers remain a risk.
The headline official growth figure is becoming “an increasingly poor indicator of how the broader economy is performing,” said Max Zenglein, Asia Pacific senior economist at The Conference Board.
That’s because it masks “widening disparities across industries, regions, and households,” Zenglein said. Beijing faces difficult trade-offs and managing domestic imbalances may prove more challenging than dealing with external pressures, he said.
China’s domestic demand has been weighed down by a yearslong downturn in its property market that has squeezed household wealth and driven up savings.
On Monday, Mao Shengyong, deputy head of China’s National Bureau of Statistics, also cautioned about the economic challenges ahead. “The international environment is complex and volatile, the problem of insufficient domestic demand remains relatively prominent and the foundation for a stable, improving economy still needs consolidation,” he told a news conference.
Still, with strong exports being one of the few bright spots, China is on track to surpass last year’s record $1.2 trillion trade surplus globally, after logging a 36% growth in exports last month and already a $938 billion surplus between January and September.
Elevated U.S. tariffs have hit some U.S.-China bilateral trade and forced China to look elsewhere, including Southeast Asia, Latin America and Europe. High-tech exports such as semiconductors and autos, including hybrid and electric vehicles, are among the areas driving its export growth this year.
As China pursues self-sufficiency to help shield itself from Western export controls and trade uncertainties, it has built up massive domestic manufacturing capacities across industries such as solar and EVs, which are also heavily subsidized by the government. But output was scaled up rapidly at a time of weakened domestic consumption, so many of these goods are shipped to overseas markets at competitive pricing.
An export-reliant growth model that’s highly tech-driven has shown limited job creation and broad income gains while risks of artificial intelligence-driven labor displacements continue to grow, said Ecaterina Bigos, senior market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management.
For many of its trade partners, they fear their domestic industries and economies are facing growing threats from the surge of lower-cost Chinese manufactured imports.
“It is untenable and unsustainable for the world’s second largest economy to rely on foreign demand to prop up its own growth,” said Eswar Prasad, a professor of economics and trade policy at Cornell University.
Through its persistent and large trade surpluses, China “has become a drag on world growth rather than an engine that pulls the rest of the world along,” Prasad said.
The European Union is among those impatient to reduce its trade imbalance with China. The 27-nation bloc runs a trade deficit with China of more than $1.1 billion a day.
For the first nine months of the year, Chinese exports to the EU were up 16%. EU countries are eyeing more curbs on China after the EU reached an agreement with China this month to roughly halve the number of Chinese hybrid vehicle imports over the next few years.
China can work with other countries on disputes and it wants to keep its market access, said Gary Ng, a senior economist for Asia Pacific at French bank Natixis. With a deal with the EU on hybrid cars, for example, China can likely still sell more made-by-China products to its economies in the longer run while avoiding a broad tariff hike.
But even with agreements made between China and the EU, “trade imbalances will be difficult to resolve quickly,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at Dutch bank ING.
Policymakers are also arguing that an undervalued yuan, China’s currency, against the dollar and the euro has contributed to China’s growing trade surplus, even though China’s central bank has dismissed the claims.
“We are likely to see continued resistance, rising protectionism, and persistent pressure from economies globally to protect their industries, and jobs, notably in high value sectors,” noted Bigos.
Beijing has insisted that China does not seek a large trade surplus. On Friday, China’s central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said countries with trade deficits and those with trade surpluses should work together, and that China, as a responsible country, has been committed to expanding domestic demand.
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