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EU, US trade officials to meet in Paris after Trump’s tariff threat

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The European Union’s trade and economy chief, Maros Sefcovic, is set to hold talks with his U.S. counterpart on Tuesday in Paris, an EU spokesperson said, following President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs threat last week.

Trump said Friday he will hike U.S levies on EU cars and trucks from this week, accusing the bloc of not complying with an earlier tariff agreement.

The EU dismissed the claim and insisted it remained committed to the deal.

“Since day one, we are implementing the joint statement, and we’re fully committed to delivering on our shared commitments,” EU spokesperson Thomas Regnier said.

Sefcovic will meet U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on the margins of a G-7 ministerial meeting in Paris on Tuesday, the spokesperson added, as he noted talks between the two sides continued at different levels.

The European Parliament has given its conditional approval to the EU-U.S. trade pact, but under EU procedures, before the deal is implemented by the bloc, a final version still needs to be negotiated with member states.

Regnier said the EU kept Washington “fully informed throughout the process” and sought to “reassure the other side of the Atlantic, work is ongoing. Progress is being made.”

While the EU has warned it is keeping its options open, Regnier refused to speculate on how the EU would act if the tariffs kick in.

“We will not escalate any threats. We focus on the implementation phase,” he said.

Retaliatory measures?

Separately, a German foreign trade group signalled on Monday support for retaliatory EU measures if new U.S. tariffs announced by Trump take effect.

“Possible countermeasures” could be discussed as soon as it is “clear” why exactly Trump is planning to impose new tariffs, to what extent and on what legal basis, BGA President Dirk Jandura told the Handelsblatt business newspaper.

While stressing that dialogue and negotiations were the means of choice, Jandura also said that it was key for Europe to “defend its interests clearly and consistently.”

The latest move by the U.S. president marks a sharp escalation after months of relative calm in the tariff dispute. In August, Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed on a framework capping tariffs on most EU imports, including cars and car parts, at 15%.

In return, the EU pledged to scrap tariffs on U.S. industrial goods and improve market access for agricultural products such as pork and dairy.

However, implementation has slowed amid renewed tariff threats by Trump and legal uncertainty following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling in February that found many of his existing tariffs unlawful.

The European Parliament said in March that further implementation would be subject to strict conditions, with member states also required to approve the necessary regulations.

The president did not elaborate on how he believes the EU had failed to adhere to the terms of its deal.

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Economy

Stripe, Advent reportedly offer to buy PayPal for over $53 billion

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Payments company Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have made a joint offer to acquire PayPal Holdings ​Inc. for $60.50 per share, in a deal that would value the payments company at more than $53 billion, a report said on Wednesday.

The offer, submitted earlier ‌this month, is backed by about $50 billion in committed financing from banks, Reuters said, citing sources. The offer represents around a 28% premium to PayPal’s closing share price on Tuesday.

The sources, who are familiar with the matter, declined to be named as the deal discussions are confidential. PayPal, Stripe and Advent declined to comment.

The proposal follows an initial approach made in early April, the sources ​said. Stripe and Advent have not received a response from PayPal and are seeking to advance discussions in the coming weeks, the sources added.

Under the proposal, ​Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal, with each holding an equal stake, rather than breaking up the company, the people ⁠said. There is no certainty that the approach will result in a transaction, they added.

PayPal shares were last up 16.2% in premarket trading.

Founded in the late 1990s, PayPal was ​an early player in digital payments, but has faced increasing competition as consumers have embraced alternative payment methods and rivals such as Apple Pay and Google Pay have gained ​market share.

It has spent the past several years grappling with slowing growth and intensifying competition in digital payments, wiping out much of the value it gained during the pandemic.

The company’s market capitalization peaked at about $360 billion in 2021 and fell to as low as roughly $36 billion this year. It has lost more than 40% of its market value over the past 12 months.

After taking over ​in March, PayPal CEO Enrique Lores started a sweeping turnaround exercise to simplify the payments provider and sharpen its focus on growth.

In April, the company split its operations into ​three units covering checkout, consumer financial services Venmo, and payments and crypto, while making a series of management changes.

Global payment deals

The potential PayPal transaction, if completed, will add to the recent merger and acquisition (M&A) ‌activity in ⁠the global payments sector, where buyers have pursued targets amid rapid changes in financial technology and the rise of artificial intelligence.

Payment companies are also increasingly seeking scale through M&A as well as exposure to faster-growing segments such as cross-border and business-to-business payments amid slower growth for traditional payment processing.

In 2025, Global Payments agreed to acquire rival Worldpay from FIS and private equity firm GTCR for $24.25 billion in a complex three-way deal. As part of that deal, GTCR sold its 55% stake and FIS exited its remaining 45% holding.

The ​sector has also seen a steady stream ​of smaller deals, including the acquisition ⁠of Payoneer Global by Canadian payments firm Nuvei for $2.75 billion. Nuvei is backed by Advent International and other private equity firms.

Mastercard is exploring the sale of a majority stake in its U.K. payments subsidiary Vocalink back to British banks as it responds to concerns about ​a critical asset being under U.S. ownership, the Financial Times reported this week.

PayPal’s revenue rose 7% to $8.35 billion in the first ​quarter, beating analysts’ average ⁠estimate of $8.05 billion. On a currency-neutral basis, total payment volumes jumped 8% over a year ago to about $464 billion.

Lores outlined plans in May to leverage artificial intelligence to streamline operations across the company and eliminate duplication in workforce layers, but did not provide additional details.

The company has said these initiatives would save about $1.5 billion over the next two to three ⁠years, adding it ​will reinvest that amount to drive new growth.

Stripe, which is privately held, is among the industry’s most ​valuable companies. It was valued at $159 billion in a tender offer for employees and shareholders in February, a more than 70% jump from a similar share sale a year earlier.

The company, with headquarters in San ​Francisco and Dublin, allows companies to accept payments, make payouts and automate financial processes.

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One-third of Ukraine’s Black Sea grain export capacity gone: Union

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Ukraine has lost about a third of its capacity to ⁠export grain via its vital Black ⁠Sea ports due to intensifying Russian missile and drone attacks, according to the country’s main farmers’ union.

More than four years into its war with Russia, agricultural exports like grains and vegetable ​oils remain Ukraine’s biggest source of foreign currency earnings, with more ​than ⁠90% shipped through three ports in the southern Odesa region.

Under a deal meant to allow both countries to ship grain through the Black Sea, the Odesa ports had been handling about 6 million metric tons of cargo a month.

Both Moscow and Kyiv are now stepping up attacks on key revenue sources, with Ukrainian forces hitting Russian energy infrastructure, including oil tankers, and Russia intensifying its attacks on the Black Sea ports in recent weeks.

“Russia has begun systematically striking port infrastructure, terminals and the entire transport logistics chain, using ballistic missiles again and again,” the trading department of Ukrainian farmers’ union UAC said in a weekly report released late on Tuesday.

“On average, we can ⁠now ⁠ship about 4 million metric tons of grain a month,” it added.

Ukraine’s economy ministry was due to hold a meeting on Wednesday to discuss the port attacks.

Russian strikes cause logistics headaches

Ukraine has in recent seasons accounted for about 6% of global wheat exports and about 11% of global corn exports, meaning that the disruptions, if prolonged, could have an impact on global markets.

While the ports have continued to operate, UAC warned that, if the current intensity of attacks continues and no repair work is carried out, infrastructure could be significantly damaged within ⁠several months.

Industry sources, meanwhile, told Reuters that traders are struggling with logistics headaches.

“The ports have not ground to a halt, but traders are facing problems with procurement, sales, shipments, cargo accumulation, prices and freight,” a senior industry official ​told Reuters.

Data from Ukrainian Railways showed that the number of grain railcars heading to the Odesa ports ​dropped 11% in the week of July 2-8 from the previous week, while exports fell by 17%. Ukraine’s top grain exporter Kernel Holding said this week it had ⁠halted operations ‌at Chornomorsk ‌port due to a series of Russian attacks.

And four of the ⁠ports’ 13 large grain terminals have suspended grain purchases, another ‌industry source said on Wednesday.

Analysts from the ASAP Agri consultancy said that “the overall reluctance” of ship owners to call at Ukrainian ​ports had also put upward pressure on ⁠freight rates.

Bohdan Kostetskyi, an analyst at consultancy Barva Invest, wrote in ⁠an article for Ukrainian outlet Agrotimes that the ports had lost a third of their grain ⁠storage capacity.

“The loss of ​around 2.5 million tons in monthly accumulation capacity at deep-water ports has created a bottleneck for grain, with some volumes unable to reach export destinations,” he said.

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Economy

Dimon-led JPMorgan on verge of becoming world’s first $1 trillion bank

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JPMorgan Chase has rewritten industry record books in two decades under Jamie Dimon. And the Wall Street giant is now within ​striking distance of another milestone – becoming the first bank ever to reach a $1 trillion market valuation.

Crossing the landmark will put the bank in ⁠a club stacked with tech heavyweights such as ⁠Tesla, Meta and Broadcom, while also raising investor expectations and leaving little room for missteps.

Here are a few charts that explain the bank’s rise:

The final stretch

A stellar ​earnings report on Tuesday propelled JPMorgan shares to a record ​high. ⁠The lender, which reported the highest profit in history by a U.S. bank, was last valued at around $919 billion, dwarfing rivals.

With dealmaking volumes set to end the year near the record haul of 2021, JPMorgan could see elevated investment banking activity for the rest of 2026, which may nudge it closer to the $1 trillion mark.

CFO Jeremy Barnum said the investment banking pipeline was robust, as “the current activity levels seem to be encouraging more activity.”

No equal

With a balance sheet bigger than its peers, the bank has leveraged its dominance in Wall Street dealmaking and Main Street lending to capture gains from both economic engines.

“The company benefits from a portfolio ⁠of ⁠leading financial services businesses, providing both diversification and durable competitive advantages,” said Macrae Sykes, portfolio manager of Gabelli Financial Services Opportunities ETF.

The Jamie premium

JPMorgan shares have long been viewed as carrying a “Jamie premium,” which refers to the extra value investors attach to the bank because of its powerful CEO.

Jamie Dimon, chair and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., April 23, 2024. (Reuters Photo)

Jamie Dimon, chair and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., April 23, 2024. (Reuters Photo)

While its board has ramped up succession planning in recent years, the stock continues to benefit from Dimon’s influence.

Despite having underperformed the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 banks indexes this year, JPMorgan trades at 14.63 times expected earnings over the next ⁠12 months, according to data compiled by LSEG. That compares with 13.58 for the S&P 500 banks gauge.

“There is no doubt that he has been instrumental in delivering strong shareholder returns. While the backdrop from the U.S. economy ​has been helpful, the bank operates in very competitive markets, so execution has been key,” Sykes ​said.

JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Elevated expectations

A milestone such as $1 trillion in market capitalization is mostly a symbolic victory, but it raises expectations ⁠for future execution.

“If ‌history is ‌any guide, the trillion-dollar milestone does not guarantee a smooth path ⁠forward,” said Fabien Yip, market analyst at IG, referring ‌to Walmart’s slip below $1 trillion after it hit that milestone in February.

The bank may also face skepticism about the ​durability of its trading strength, which benefited ⁠in the latest quarter from market volatility sparked by the Middle ⁠East war.

“We view shares as fairly valued,” said Morningstar equity analyst Austin Taggart.

While both investment ⁠banking and trading ​had been stronger than initially estimated, expecting the current levels of activity to last far into the future could be premature, he said.

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Europe’s tech giant ASML lifts forecasts, sees robust Q2 on AI boom

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Dutch technology giant and Europe’s largest company by market cap, ASML, reported on Wednesday another strong quarterly result and raised its sales forecasts on thriving demand for AI systems.

ASML is a critical cog in the global economy and a key bellwether for the tech sector, as everything from smartphones to missiles relies on the semiconductors crafted with its tools.

Investors were watching the results especially closely after several sharp sell-offs in the tech sector over fears the AI bubble might be approaching its bursting point.

But the firm’s chief executive officer, Christophe Fouquet, said AI was still pushing his business forward.

“Ongoing AI-related investments and continued progress in AI technologies are driving demand for advanced Logic and Memory chips, further strengthening the semiconductor industry’s growth outlook,” said Fouquet in a statement.

“Our order intake remained extremely strong in the first half of the year,” added the CEO.

The firm, Europe’s biggest by market capitalization, said it now expected to make between 43 billion and 45 billion euros ($49 billion-$51 billion) in total net sales this year.

This was an increase from the range of 36-40 billion euros that ASML had previously forecast and was due to “a continuous, very strong demand from our customers,” said Fouquet.

Net profits were also better than expected for the second quarter, coming in at 2.9 billion euros compared to the 2.3 billion euros the firm made in the same period last year.

“All in all, I would say a very strong quarter. Both from a market dynamic perspective and from an execution perspective,” said chief financial officer Roger Dassen.

Stock market players agreed, pushing the stock up by nearly 8% at the opening bell of the Amsterdam trading session.

Boosted by ASML, the AEX index soared above 1,100 points for the first time.

China demand

ASML said it expects net sales of between 11 billion and 12 billion euros for the third quarter of the year.

Its second-quarter net sales came in at a better-than-forecast 9.3 billion euros, compared with 7.7 billion euros in the same three months of last year.

Based on the strong momentum, Fouquet said the firm planned to increase capacity by 30% for two of its key chipmaking machines, with another 30% boost possible in 2028.

The company, however, has been caught in the crossfire of a tech spat between the U.S. and China and has previously warned its Chinese sales would “decline significantly” this year.

Dassen said ASML expected China to represent around 20% of its sales in 2026.

“You could say that the Chinese market is moving in sync with the overall behavior that we see globally,” said Dassen.

Washington is leading efforts to curb high-tech exports to China over fears they could be used to bolster the country’s military.

Beijing has reacted furiously to the measures, describing them as “technological terrorism.”

Last month, ASML denied reports of U.S. concerns that one of its advanced chipmaking machines was in China, potentially violating the restrictions.

In January, ASML announced a shake-up in its organization that was expected to result in the loss of around 1,700 jobs in the Netherlands and the U.S., mainly from leadership roles.

The firm employs roughly 44,000 staff worldwide.

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China’s Q2 growth slows to lowest since 2022, misses estimates

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China’s economic growth slowed sharply to 4.3% on an annual basis in the April-June quarter, the government said Wednesday, marking the weakest period in over three years and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The weak household consumption clouded strong manufacturing and exports, and intensified concerns over the long-term sustainability of its unbalanced growth model.

At 4.3%, ⁠gross domestic product growth in April-June eased from the first quarter’s 5.0%, landing ⁠below the lower end of China’s 4.5%-5.0% full-year target and missing forecasts.

China has largely shrugged off wider economic impacts from the Iran war as soaring energy prices pushed up global inflation.

Exports rose 17.6% in the first half of the year from a year earlier, and 27% in June, according to customs data.

Slowest growth since 2022

But domestic spending and investment have lagged, limiting the boost from export manufacturing for an economy that has struggled to regain momentum since parts of China were locked down during the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This was the slowest growth in any quarter since the lockdown-impacted fourth quarter of 2022,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank, in a note.

The data adds pressure on Beijing for more stimulus.

But many analysts say a closely watched end-July meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo, a top decision-making body, may not flag major steps due to concerns over ballooning debt.

Economists also argue ​that the bigger challenge is not the pace of growth but its composition.

Some economists say China’s economy is becoming increasingly unbalanced as heavy state support and private investments pour into frontier technologies like AI, computer chips, and robotics, while other areas, such as lower-value manufacturing and job-creating service industries, languish.

Wednesday’s data showed retail sales rising 1.0% ​in ⁠June and industrial output expanding 5.3% – suggesting an overwhelming reliance on global demand for manufactured goods at a time when trading partners are complaining about China’s imbalances and the Iran war weighs on the world economy.

Jane Hou, who runs a European goods importing business in eastern China, says her income has roughly halved since the beginning of the year as her firm’s sales have dropped. An apartment she rents out has been without a tenant for more than six months – a reflection of China’s huge housing oversupply and a prolonged property crisis.

“Apart from necessary spending on food, I save on anything I can,” said Hou. “I haven’t bought a single piece of clothing in six months.”

Still, the economy grew 4.7% in January-June, within target, reducing urgency for major stimulus.

Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, doubts that the Politburo will signal a wider fiscal deficit, given that exports for now remain strong.

“The government seems reluctant to spend fiscal resources and build up debt,” said Zhang.

“There is a general consensus among policymakers and researchers that China needs to boost domestic demand. But there is no consensus on how to do it.”

China’s exports of high-tech products such as electric vehicles, computer chips and other electronic equipment have risen sharply recently since the leaders have made the development of advanced technologies a top priority.

China ran a record $1.2 trillion global trade surplus last year, drawing complaints from policymakers in other countries over their trade imbalances with the world’s second-largest economy.

Investment weakens, consumption soft

Domestically, wages have not kept pace with the ⁠overall economy, ⁠even declining in some sectors.

Industrial overcapacity, U.S. tariffs and price wars among producers have fuelled layoffs in factories, while weak demand and faster AI adoption have slowed white-collar job creation.

The property downturn has eroded household wealth and curbed employment in construction since 2021. The data showed property investment contracting 18% year-over-year in the first six months, while home prices also eased.

Investment is also slowing.

China’s fixed-asset investment shrank 5.7% year-over-year in January-June, with even state-sector investment dropping 2.3%.

“The primary drag on the headline growth figure stems from a deepening downturn in domestic investment activity,” said Andy Ji, an analyst at ITC Markets.

“Overall, a high-tech-driven ​industrial engine running alongside cratering domestic consumption and investment firmly highlights the economy’s deeply uneven growth momentum.”

Exports hold strong

The onus is increasingly on exports to drive ​growth.

Trade data on Tuesday showed external demand is so far compensating for China’s internal weakness, with exports beating expectations with a 27% jump, riding the global AI boom.

This partly reflected frontloading by U.S. retailers looking to secure inventories for Black Friday and Christmas holiday sales before expected tariff hikes later this ⁠year, shipping executives have said.

U.S. ‌President Donald Trump’s ‌visit to China in May preserved the detente between the world’s two largest powers, but their trade relationship remains fragile.

A ⁠universal 10% U.S. tariff imposed by Washington in February, after the Supreme Court declared some earlier tariffs illegal, ‌expires on July 24, but it is widely expected to be replaced with higher levies.

The U.S. Trade Representative has proposed a 12.5% tariff on imports from China and elsewhere following an investigation into forced labor, ​which Beijing denies, with a final decision expected in the coming ⁠months.

Moreover, the European Union, whose trade deficit with China averaged $1 billion a day last year, is working on bolstering protections of ⁠its industrial complex from Chinese competition.

At the same time, renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran fuels uncertainty over global growth.

Larry Hu, Macquarie Group’s chief China economist, said Beijing has little ⁠incentive to lean off external demand ​for now.

“What will cause the current situation to change is when exports fail,” Hu said.

“When exports slow down, in order to still achieve the growth target, the government will do more on domestic demand.”



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Economy

Türkiye’s minimum pension hike to cost budget nearly $1.7B in H2

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The increase in Türkiye’s minimum pension as part of ​a draft bill discussed at parliamentary commission on ⁠Tuesday will ⁠cost the budget TL 79 billion ($1.68 billion) in ​the second ​half of ⁠2026, an impact analysis showed.

The bill would raise the minimum pension from TL 20,000 to TL 23,552, benefiting about 5.1 million pensioners, while also imposing new levies on internet platforms and media providers.

Internet ⁠platforms and media service providers will be required to pay 2% of prior-year net sales to a Culture and Tourism Ministry fund, aimed at boosting the cinema sector.

The 2% levy is ⁠projected to generate TL 417.1 million in additional annual revenue.

A 3,500-lira-per-insured-worker ​incentive for businesses that maintain their ​workforce, introduced in 2026, will be extended for two more ⁠years.

Incentive ‌and support payments are projected ⁠at TL 51 ‌billion in 2026, TL 62 billion ​in 2027 ⁠and TL 75 billion ⁠in 2028, totaling TL 188 ⁠billion.

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