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Fitch says Türkiye risks contained if Iran war short-lived

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Fitch Ratings sees risks to Türkiye’s sovereign rating and banking sector as remaining limited and manageable if tensions in the Middle East prove short-lived, while it warns a prolonged period of high energy prices could increase vulnerabilities.

The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is in its third week and no end in sight. The Strait ⁠of Hormuz remains largely closed off, with U.S. allies rebuffing U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for help to reopen the critical waterway, raising energy prices and fears of inflation.

Fitch said on Monday that its baseline scenario assumes the conflict will be temporary, in which case the impact on Türkiye’s credit profile and financial system would be contained.

However, the credit rating agency cautioned that persistently high oil prices could add to inflationary pressures and widen the country’s current account deficit.

It said the impact of the conflict on Türkiye and its banking sector would depend on policy response.

Fitch said measures introduced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) since the start of this month signal a continued commitment to bringing down inflation.

Responding to the volatility amid the conflict, the CBRT took liquidity measures that lifted overnight rates to around 40%, up 300 basis points from prewar levels.

Fitch expects monetary policy to remain relatively tight, forecasting a real policy rate of around 4.5% by year-end, which underpins its projection that inflation will decline to 25% by the end of 2026.

Annual inflation slowed from over 40% at the beginning of last year to just over 30% this January. But a rise to 31.5% last month signaled a slowdown in disinflation.

Encouraged by the downward trend, the CBRT had slashed interest rates by 900 basis points since mid-2025 to 37%. But it halted its easing cycle last week due to fallout from the Iran war that it said could impact inflation.

Fuel mechanism provides buffer

Fitch noted that Türkiye has reactivated a fuel price adjustment mechanism to help contain domestic price pressures amid rising global energy costs.

The sliding scale system adjusts the special consumption tax (ÖTV) on fuel products and prevents higher oil prices from being fully passed through to consumers.

Fitch said the fiscal burden of such measures could be absorbed thanks to available budget space, supported by a roughly 2 percentage point decline in the budget deficit-to-GDP ratio last year.

Banking sector seen resilient

Fitch said Turkish banks are generally well-positioned to withstand potential shocks, citing adequate liquidity and capital buffers across the sector.

These buffers, it said, should help mitigate risks to operating conditions even in the face of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Risks rise if tensions persist

While the baseline outlook remains stable, Fitch warned that a longer-lasting conflict and sustained increases in energy prices would pose more significant challenges for Türkiye’s macroeconomic outlook.

Such a scenario could complicate the disinflation process and put additional pressure on external balances, the agency said.

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Economy

7-Eleven founder, architect of Japanese convenience stores, dies

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Toshifumi Suzuki, the Japanese businessman credited with creating the 7-Eleven convenience chain’s global retail empire, has died at the age of 93, the company announced Monday.

“Suzuki, an honorary adviser at Seven & i Holdings, died on May 18 of heart failure at his Tokyo home,” the company said.

He founded the Japanese unit that operates the seemingly ubiquitous 7-Eleven “conbini” outlets, where busy people can hop in and grab sandwiches, rice balls, drinks, chips and other meals on the run, use ATMs, pay utility bills and copy documents.

The 7-Eleven stores, now numbering more than 80,000 worldwide, are the biggest convenience-store chain in Japan.

The business started in Japan under a franchise agreement with the U.S. 7-Eleven in 1973. The first store opened in Japan the following year.

After The Southland Corp., which founded 7-Eleven, ran into financial difficulties, the Japanese company bought a majority stake in the 1990’s. It made the American counterpart its 100% owned group company in 2005.

Several years ago, the Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard, which runs the global Circle K convenience store chain, sought to acquire Seven & i Holdings. But it dropped the effort in 2024, citing frustration with negotiations that showed “a lack of constructive engagement.”

Suzuki, born in Nagano Prefecture, northern Japan, in 1932, graduated from the prestigious Chuo University in Tokyo.

Before beginning his career in the convenience store business, he worked at Ito-Yokado, a major Japanese retail chain that sells a variety of products, including groceries, cosmetics and clothing, which is also owned by Seven and i Holdings.

Apart from leading 7-Eleven, Suzuki engineered the acquisition of Barney’s Japan in 2015 and added banking functions to the empire.

He said he wanted to provide customers with what he called a lifestyle shopping experience. Over the years, the retailing giant also brought under its wing the Sogo and Seibu department stores.

Suzuki became the chief executive of 7-Eleven Japan in 1978. He is widely seen as having innovated how Japanese consumers shop. Convenience stores have led retailers in Japan in implementing new retail technologies.

Funeral services are being held privately with family, and messages, flowers and other condolence gifts were politely declined, according to the company. Details of a public ceremony will come later, it said.

Suzuki is survived by his wife and two children.

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Oil down 5% as US, Iran seen moving closer to peace deal

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Oil prices ​slipped more than $5 to two-week lows on Monday, as optimism grew that the United States and Iran ⁠were moving closer to a ⁠peace deal, even though they remain at odds over key issues such as blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude futures were ​down $5.09, or 4.9%, to $98.45 a barrel at 0705 ​GMT, ⁠while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were at $91.38 a barrel, down $5.22, or 5.4%. Both contracts touched their lowest since May 7 earlier in the session.

On Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington and Iran had “largely negotiated” an understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict.

“Notwithstanding all the caveats and risks that remain to the peace deal and Strait of Hormuz, there is now some light at the ⁠end ⁠of the tunnel, which will bring some near-term oil price relief,” said MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic.

However, the two sides remain at odds over several difficult issues, with Trump saying on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal.

“We’ve been at this stage before, only for talks to break down. Therefore, the market will likely be more cautious about overreacting,” said Warren Patterson, head of ⁠commodities strategy at ING.

Analysts expect a return to normal oil flows through the strait to take months, while damaged oil and gas facilities are repaired.

“The longer the crisis stretches, the ​more debatable it becomes whether world leaders genuinely want a quick end to disruptions,” ​said Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva.

U.S. energy firms responded to higher local energy prices by adding oil and natural gas rigs ⁠for ‌the fifth ‌week in a row, for the first time since ⁠February 2025.

The rig count, an early ‌indicator of future output, rose by seven to 558 in the week to May 22, ​its highest since June 2025. Even ⁠so, Baker Hughes said the total count was ⁠still down eight rigs, or 1% below this time last year.

“Momentum indicators ⁠suggest markets are ​attempting to stabilise after last week’s aggressive selloff, but conviction remains weak,” Sachdeva said.

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Türkiye’s machinery exports rise 4.5% to $9.3B in January-April

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Türkiye’s machinery exports surged 4.5% year-over-year to $9.3 billion (TL 424.74 billion) in the first four months of the year, according to a report on Sunday citing data from the Machinery Exporters’ Association (MAIB).

Including free zones, the consolidated exports of the machinery manufacturing industry totaled $9.3 billion during the January-April period.

While machinery export volumes declined by 6.7% in the period, the average export price per kilogram rose 12% to $8.60, resulting in an increase in export value, the report by Anadolu Agency (AA) said. As a result, the sector generated an additional $350 million in revenue compared with the same period last year.

Accordingly, annualized consolidated machinery exports rose 1.3% to $29.1 billion, while imports increased by 8.2% to $47.2 billion.

Germany, U.S. emerge as top export destinations

Germany remained the largest export market in January-April, with shipments rising 14.1% to $1.1 billion, the data showed.

It was followed by the U.S., where exports jumped 39.5% to $767 million, and Italy, where exports increased 12.7% to $442 million.

Iraq, Russia and Poland were among the major markets showing the sharpest contractions.

Among subsectors, the highest export value was recorded in internal combustion engines and components, at $867 million. This category was followed by construction and mining machinery with $629 million and pumps and compressors with some $530 million, respectively.

Exports of turbines, turbojets and hydraulic cylinders posted the strongest proportional increase, rising 40.1%, while leather-processing machinery saw the steepest decline, falling 52.2%.

‘A trusted partner’ worldwide

MAIB Chair Sevda Kayhan Yılmaz said Europe, which has already borne additional energy costs for years due to the Russia-Ukraine war, now faces an extra 25 billion euro ($29 billion) energy burden stemming from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.

She also pointed to shifting dynamics in spending and noted that countries continue to increase defense expenditures even under such circumstances.

“In this environment, where investment priorities are shifting, our machinery industry’s existing high-tech production lines need to undergo an integration process fully aligned with the defense sector’s specific regulatory and certification requirements,” Yılmaz said.

She added that while countries are increasingly caught in conflicting interests, Türkiye has maintained dialogue with all of its trading partners and is managing this strategic transition by maintaining a presence wherever global industry is active.

Yılmaz said the sector is working to reinforce the image of Turkish machinery as a reliable and flexible solutions partner through trade fairs and business delegation events across a wide geographic area spanning multiple continents.

“As we adapt to the West’s new-generation protectionist barriers focused on cybersecurity and low-carbon standards, while competing with the East’s technological raw-material and production advantages, we want to preserve our reputation as a trusted partner around the world,” she said.

Support for tax incentives, broader financing

At the same time, Yılmaz welcomed structural measures aimed at expanding companies’ financial flexibility and strengthening their position in global competition.

She said the corporate tax reduction included in the new Investment Incentive Package should be viewed as a strategic step to ease burdens on manufacturing sectors.

“This regulation is important both for protecting the domestic supply chain and for enabling our companies to finance their transformation processes in global markets,” she said.

“Eliminating technical bottlenecks in financial markets would significantly enhance the long-term impact of this measure,” she added.

However, Yılmaz also suggested that the exchange rate has remained below inflation for an extended period, causing industrial revenues to lag behind rising costs.

“This imbalance, which has placed exporters at a disadvantage in international competition and which we believe is nearing its end, has made imports more attractive and exposed domestic producers to the risk of losing their position as the primary suppliers in the local market,” she said.

She added that removing technical bottlenecks in financial markets and directing resources selectively toward strategic sectors that develop technology would help revitalize the Turkish economy.

“Transforming the existing industrial capacity and potential into high productivity through a comprehensive strategy will once again be our strongest tool in combating the current account deficit and inflation,” she concluded.

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Uber interested in full takeover of Berlin-based Delivery Hero

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Ride-hailing giant Uber is interested in a full takeover of food delivery service Delivery Hero, the Berlin-based company confirmed on Saturday.

The move would mark further expansion of Uber in the European market, shifting its dynamics after the series of deals and exits in recent years.

Uber already holds a fifth of the shares and has access to additional stock. Uber approached the company with an offer of 33 euros per share ($38.30), Delivery Hero said on Saturday in Berlin. This would be less than the shares had cost on Friday.

Delivery Hero’s share price has risen sharply in recent days, partly due to speculation about a possible offer from Uber.

Over the past two weeks, the shares climbed by almost 70% to 33.59 euros at the end of Xetra trading late on Friday afternoon. In after-hours trading, the price rose to 35.50 euros on the Tradegate trading platform. The company is therefore valued at just over 10 billion euros (around $11.6 billion).

Although it is a German company, Delivery Hero has not been operationally active in Germany since selling its business in Germany to Just Eat Takeaway, which operates as Lieferando in Germany.

However, the company is among the world’s largest food delivery services due to its strong presence in Asia, southern Europe, the Arabian Peninsula and Africa.

Uber itself operates a food delivery service with Uber Eats, including in many cities across Germany.

On Monday, Delivery Hero said that Uber now holds 19.5% of Delivery Hero’s issued capital and a further 5.6% in the form of options.

Most recently, Uber had already increased its stake from just over 7% to almost 18%.

Dutch investment company Prosus agreed to reduce its stake in Delivery Hero as part of its purchase of rival Just Eat Takeaway.

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Türkiye proved reliable energy transit partner amid crises: Erdoğan

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President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Friday said Türkiye has proven to be a reliable energy transit partner and key actor for peace, stressing that its infrastructure has strengthened its role in regional stability.

Türkiye is determined to advance energy diplomacy alongside its broader peace efforts, Erdoğan told the second edition of the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit.

The event was organized in cooperation between Turkuvaz Media, Türkiye’s leading media group and Daily Sabah’s parent company, and the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry.

Erdoğan pointed to the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, saying recent crises triggered severe volatility in energy prices and raised concerns over global supply security.

The Iran war has triggered what is being described as the largest ever energy crisis because of the near-closure of ​the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has established de facto control over the waterway, a chokepoint for about a ⁠fifth of the world’s oil supply. The resulting surge in energy prices has pushed inflation higher and fanned fears ​of an economic downturn.

Erdoğan said the conflicts had demonstrated Türkiye’s indispensable role in secure energy supply and further strengthened its strategic importance.

“Türkiye is the strongest bridge, transit and junction point between geographies with rich energy resources and countries that need them,” he noted.

‘Changed paradigm in energy’

Heavily dependent on energy imports to meet its needs, Türkiye has been vastly investing to achieve “full energy independence” through expanded domestic oil and natural gas production, renewable energy investments and international energy partnerships.

Türkiye currently receives natural gas through five pipelines, including two from Russia, two from Azerbaijan and one from Iran, while also diversifying supplies through liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure.

“Türkiye now has a massive energy infrastructure that procures natural gas from more than 50 companies across 39 countries,” Erdoğan said.

He added that Türkiye plans to raise its daily LNG regasification capacity from 161 million cubic meters to 200 million cubic meters through new investments.

Erdoğan said the government fundamentally transformed the country’s energy strategy over the past decade through large-scale investments in exploration, storage and transmission infrastructure.

“We changed the paradigm in energy,” he said. “With the motto ‘Only those who search can find,’ we made major investments in this field over the last 10 years.”

Black Sea gas production to double in 2026

Erdoğan highlighted Türkiye’s gas production in the Sakarya field in the Black Sea, the largest natural gas discovery in the country’s history.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar (6th L) and other officials pose for a photo at the second edition of the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit, Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2026. (AA Photo)

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar (6th L) and other officials pose for a photo at the second edition of the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit, Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2026. (AA Photo)

Daily production from the field has reached 9.5 million cubic meters, enough to supply millions of households.

The output is expected to increase to 20 million cubic meters per day in 2026 with the commissioning of Türkiye’s first floating gas production platform, Osman Gazi, Erdoğan said.

“Thus, we will be able to meet the energy needs of 8 million households from the Black Sea,” he noted.

The president said a third production phase planned for 2028 would increase output to 45 million cubic meters per day, supplying up to 17 million households with domestically produced natural gas.

Domestic oil production

Erdoğan also emphasized the growing importance of the Gabar field in southeastern Türkiye, saying it now accounts for 44% of the country’s domestic oil production.

He described the discovery as the largest oil find in the republic’s history and said the region, once associated with security concerns and terrorism, is now seeing increased investment, tourism and employment.

Following the Gabar discovery, Erdoğan said authorities identified four additional exploration areas in Diyarbakır province and plan to drill 24 wells over the next three years.

Türkiye aims to transform its state energy company into a producer of 1 million barrels of oil and natural gas per day through expanded domestic and international exploration efforts, he added.

Overseas energy partnerships expand

Erdoğan said Türkiye is also strengthening its global energy diplomacy through partnerships in Somalia, Pakistan, Libya and Central Asia.

He described offshore drilling operations in Somalia as Türkiye’s first deep-sea exploration project abroad and said operations are expected to be completed within six to nine months, depending on weather conditions.

“Our hope is to deliver good news to the brotherly Somali people, who have struggled with instability and famine for many years,” Erdoğan said.

He added that Türkiye is also working with the Syrian government on joint projects in the oil and mining sectors, saying regional normalization could create further cooperation opportunities.

Renewables, nuclear and critical minerals

Erdoğan said Türkiye continues to expand investments in renewable energy and nuclear power alongside fossil fuel production.

He noted that the country has become the world leader in boron reserves and said rare earth element discoveries in central Eskişehir’s Beylikova district could elevate Türkiye into a major global player in critical minerals.

The president also highlighted lithium carbonate production efforts in Eskişehir’s Kırka region and ongoing work to establish an industrial-scale facility with an annual capacity of 600 tons.

Erdoğan said the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant marked a turning point for Türkiye’s nuclear ambitions, while investments in solar, wind and hydroelectric energy represented some of the largest clean-energy projects in the country’s history.

“Türkiye is not a spectator in this race; it aims to become a game changer,” he said.

He reiterated that achieving full energy independence remains one of Türkiye’s strategic priorities.

Importance of energy security

Also addressing the event, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said that the recent Iran-centered conflict once again demonstrated the importance of energy security and revealed how fragile the global economy can be.

Bayraktar said that in an era marked by wars and major economic upheavals, and the entry into the age of artificial intelligence and a succession of major technological advancements, “the world is undergoing a critical energy transition.”

“The recent war centered around Iran has once again demonstrated the importance of energy security and how fragile the global economy can be in this regard,” Bayraktar said.

Moreover, he underscored that Türkiye has emerged as one of the best-prepared countries to withstand the crisis.

“Since 2002, thanks to the strong political will you have demonstrated and the policies we have implemented under your leadership, Türkiye has become one of the countries that faced this crisis in the most prepared and resilient manner,” he further said, referring to President Erdoğan.

Moreover, he suggested that the National Energy and Mining Policy “became the main road map for our vision of a ‘Fully Independent Türkiye in Energy and Mining.'”

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar speaks during the second edition of the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit, Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2026. (AA Photo)

Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar speaks during the second edition of the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit, Istanbul, Türkiye, May 22, 2026. (AA Photo)

Also noting that Türkiye possesses one of the world’s largest deep-sea drilling fleets and is conducting oil and gas exploration both domestically and abroad, Bayraktar said, “We explored areas on land that had never been visited before, carried out seismic surveys and drilling operations, and continue to do so.”

In line with this, he also recalled historic discoveries in the Sakarya and Gabar regions, referring to vast gas and oil reserves on the country’s northern coast and in Şırnak province.

Referring to the energy transition and technological shifts, he said that as Türkiye, “we are also preparing a new energy architecture for our country in this new era.”

More infrastructure projects

“Our primary goal here is to position Türkiye as a central nation that has ended its dependence on foreign energy, strengthened its energy security and enhanced regional integration,” he added.

He added that under the new energy architecture, Türkiye plans to maximize the capacity of strategically important oil and natural gas pipelines such as TANAP, TurkStream, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline and the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, all of which play key roles in the energy supply security of both Türkiye and the wider region.

“We will strengthen our energy ties by developing additional infrastructure projects with neighboring and regional countries in oil, natural gas and electricity under a win-win approach,” he said.

“Extending the Iraq-Türkiye Oil Pipeline to Basra and transporting Turkmenistan’s natural gas to Türkiye and Europe via the Trans-Caspian Natural Gas Pipeline will be among the key priorities of this new era,” he maintained

Türkiye is also aiming for multi-faceted integration in the electricity sector, Bayraktar said.

“Through the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye-Bulgaria Green Electricity Transmission Agreement we signed in Baku last year, we aim to deliver renewable energy generated in Azerbaijan to Europe,” he explained.

He noted that the country is also working on a mega power transmission line that will stretch from Saudi Arabia to Türkiye and integrate with neighboring countries in the region. “We believe this will serve as an alternative energy corridor for both our country and Europe.”

Türkiye’s new energy architecture will feature greater connectivity and more infrastructure projects, he added.

“By developing our liquefied natural gas infrastructure, we will be able to supply higher volumes of LNG to Southeast Europe and our other neighbors,” he said.

Nuclear energy ‘not a choice, but a necessity’

Highlighting the growing role of electricity, Bayraktar said: “Electricity lies at the center of our new energy architecture.”

“Therefore, we will raise our renewable energy targets even higher. In this context, we foresee a total investment of $30 billion for a strong grid infrastructure required by our advanced renewable energy portfolio.”

He also said Türkiye views nuclear energy, with its baseload generation capability, as “not a choice, but a necessity” for supply security.

“The process that began with the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant will open the door to the nuclear era in Türkiye’s energy history,” the minister said.

Bayraktar also emphasized Türkiye’s goal of becoming “a manufacturing hub” during the energy transition process.

“For this reason, we attach great importance to investments in rare earth elements and critical minerals. We aim to increase investments in R&D and technology while supporting the development of the domestic industry,” he said.

Noting that rare earth elements form the backbone of many strategic sectors ranging from energy technologies and battery systems to electric vehicles and the defense industry, Bayraktar said the foundation of an industrial facility at the pilot rare earth elements site in Beylikova would soon be laid.

He added that Türkiye views energy not only as a driver of economic growth, but also as a key to regional peace, stability and shared prosperity.



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Economy

Istanbul energy summit charts future of energy investments

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State policymakers, national energy giants and private sector representatives on Friday used the Istanbul Natural Resources Summit as a platform to discuss the future of energy investments.

The event was organized through cooperation between Turkuvaz Media, Türkiye’s leading media group and Daily Sabah’s parent company, and the Energy and Natural Resources Ministry.

In a session moderated by Daily Sabah senior business editor Alen Lepan, participants discussed “Navigating Uncertainty: Investment Strategies for Hydrocarbons and Minerals.”

The panel focused on geopolitical uncertainty and market volatility in a fast-changing world, tested by a stream of lingering conflicts, especially in energy-rich regions.

The panel highlighted the importance of a balanced approach between energy security and low-carbon transition and was attended by Ghiath Diab, deputy minister of energy for oil affairs of Syria, Noureddine Daoudi, CEO of Algeria’s Sonatrach, Olivier Blaringhem, executive vice president of Subsea 7 Conventional, and Tüprag CEO Mehmet Yılmaz.

Participants exchanged views on energy’s role in the transition process, green investments, critical mineral supplies, localization strategies and supply chain security. They emphasized that international collaborations would rise in importance in the near future, along with local capacity building and sustainable investment models.

Syria’s Diab underlined that strengthening energy security was increasingly being tied to the ability to adapt to political and economic changes and for Syria, rebuilding the energy sector was more than a technical matter and became “more of an institutional and economic matter.”

“Our priority in rebuilding the energy sector is ensuring a clean regulatory environment to define the role of investors and companies in running and developing the businesses. We are also working on implementing a clear regulation on pricing and licensing,” he said.

Daoudi stated that long-term investment strategies in the energy sector should focus on sustainability, strategic importance and environmental sensitivity.

He emphasized that energy transformation is interconnected and noted that energy security and energy transformation should be considered together. He also pointed out that, especially in Europe, the shift toward new energy technologies is expected to continue over the next decade.

Daoudi said that natural gas plays a key role in many energy-related transformations and added that the company prioritizes reducing methane emissions and carbon capture technologies.

Subsea 7’s Blaringhem stated that the company has a clear strategy in offshore energy projects and currently employs around 12,000 people and operates 40 vessels worldwide.

He said that reducing carbon emissions is a key priority in the energy transition and noted that major international energy companies have recently become more interested in projects in Türkiye. Blaringhem emphasized that this interest stems from the current situation in the Middle East and added that energy-related developments in Türkiye have increased interest in the country.

Tüprag’s Yılmaz said that the transformation of the mining sector appears inevitable in the global transition toward a low-carbon economy.

Yılmaz noted that global demand for minerals has increased due to the transition to renewable energy and added that, without mining, it would not be possible to produce products needed for renewable energy, electric vehicles and the defense industry.

He emphasized that mining must be evaluated with a holistic perspective and said that investment decisions should be shaped not only by financial criteria but also by sustainability, environmental sensitivity, occupational safety and social factors.

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