Economy
‘Paradigm shift’: Private credit cash shifts from riskier West to EMs
Off Angola’s Atlantic coast, a complex network of pipes connects to a new fuel refinery. This project, a key step in Angola’s quest for energy self-sufficiency, is notable for being funded by private creditors rather than traditional banks.
“We’re not the lender of last resort,” said Felipe Berliner, co-founder of emerging markets asset manager Gemcorp, which invested in the project and led the syndicate that provided the bulk of funding for the refinery, using private capital. “Sometimes we are the only lender.”
Private credit for emerging markets (EMs) – driven by investors’ hunt for yields and saturation in developed Western markets – could grow exponentially, veteran investors told Reuters, providing tens of billions in funding as bilateral lending and foreign aid shrink.
“This is a paradigm shift,” said Pramol Dhawan, head of emerging markets portfolio management at PIMCO. “The need to globally reallocate is not a hedge – it’s a secular thesis.”
PIMCO has committed around $30 billion across 140 emerging market deals in five years and expects to boost annual lending by 30% this year to $10 billion. Other investors are targeting similar increases.
Rapid growth, yields squeezed
Private credit skyrocketed over the past 20 years, with global assets under management rising to over $1.2 trillion from $200 million in the early 2000s, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
The funding helped fill a gap for companies, primarily in the U.S., as banks had limited lending due to regulations and capital requirements.
Today, emerging markets get less than 10% of that cash.
But the U.S. and Europe are saturated; competition has driven down margins, and bets are riskier. Experts from JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warn that the private credit looks shaky (the collapse of U.S. firms Tricolor and First Brands underscored the risks).
However, emerging markets, investors say, have bankable projects so keen for cash that you can pick and choose.
“Emerging market companies have been forced to be more fundamentally conservative,” said Matt Christ, portfolio manager at London-based global investment manager Ninety One. Developed markets are “priced for perfection,” while emerging markets offer more upside.
He said EM yields are 150 to 300 basis points higher than their developed market peers – and risk is often lower than ratings suggest.
Christ, whose private credit portfolio is around $8 billion globally, sees scope to expand to $15 billion. EM firms, he said, are used to volatility and political instability – unlike most Western firms.
“Developed market companies are going into an era they’ve never experienced before, but emerging market companies have been doing this for a long time,” he said.
Gustavo Ferraro, head of capital solutions at the emerging markets-focused fund manager Gramercy, also noted that EM risk profiles and returns have surpassed those in developed markets.
“The U.S. market isn’t the benchmark anymore,” he said. “Our (investors) want yield and uncorrelated exposure.”
Gramercy has doubled its private credit investment in five years to $4.8 billion, with a focus on Latin America, Türkiye, and parts of Africa.
Ninety One said that in Türkiye, where authorities are limiting bank lending to cool inflation, private credit is filling the gap.
A report published on Tuesday by the Milken Institute said that to sustain private capital momentum, Latin America must focus on technological advancements, particularly its current strengths in fintech, artificial intelligence and clean technology.
Additionally, “Latin American countries will need to address long-standing obstacles, including regulatory complexity, uneven infrastructure, and security concerns.”
From sovereigns to Saudi firms
Most EM private credit is asset-backed – giving investors anything from company shares to control over the project itself.
The structure favors infrastructure, but funding has been allocated to sovereign budgets and the transport networks of Turkish cities.
Angola’s new refinery, mostly funded by Gemcorp, with the state oil company Sonangol also providing funds, will ultimately run at 60,000 barrels per day (bpd), making sub-Saharan Africa’s No. 2 oil producer less reliant on costly fuel imports. The plant’s first phase, which cost $475 million, is due to start operation by the end of the year.
Gemcorp has also funded a wind farm in Lake Turkana in Kenya, a water sanitation project in Angola and power transmission between Angola and Namibia.
A Gemcorp survey revealed that 67% of EM private credit was allocated to large or medium-sized corporates and 22% to sovereign or quasi-sovereign projects.
Gemcorp is launching a $1 billion fund targeting mid-market Saudi companies.
“They are underfunded, they don’t have access to the flexible capital they need to maintain growth from the government’s fiscal push,” Berliner said.
The firm also funds Central American commodity exports to the U.S., West African fuel prepayment deals and gold producers.
Berliner and others say private credit is flexible, fast and offers customized repayment terms – from upfront fees to extended maturities or EBITDA warrants, making it ideal for upstarts and lower-rated sovereigns.
“We’re not replacing banks anymore. We’re building something that didn’t exist,” Ferraro said. “This is bespoke financing for bespoke problems. That’s what EM has in abundance.”
Privately, some bond investors worry private credit – nimbler and less onerous than bonded debt – could eat into their business. Others fear bigger problems if borrowers hit trouble.
“If something goes wrong, like a big restructure, how does private credit deal with that? We don’t really know,” said Daniel Cash, associate professor of law at the U.K.’s Aston University, adding that the “much more opaque” lending could also create issues.
Several top energy executives have been dropped from the schedule of a major summit in Riyadh, as Saudi authorities pressed ahead with the event Monday despite deadly attacks on the capital claimed by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.
The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had all been expected at the WPC Energy Congress, which began on Sunday, but were no longer on the agenda that conference organizers released early Monday.
“To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, thank you,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who opened Monday’s session of the gathering for energy policy and industry.
“You know this country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart…Our gathering here does not mean the risk is gone.”
Prince Abdulaziz said the events of recent weeks were serious and that the kingdom’s response must be “equally serious.”
The strikes are a blow to Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s multi-billion-dollar program to diversify the economy away from oil, modernize society and position the kingdom as an investment and tourism hub.
Hosting international events is a priority of the program, which was already facing delays and recalibrations. Prince Abdulaziz said the kingdom must remain focused on the decades ahead and Vision 2030 must continue.
The WPC Energy Congress was originally scheduled for April of this year, but was postponed after the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Saudi Arabia was named host in October 2022, the first time the event, first held in Britain in 1933, has been held in the kingdom.
Chief executives of major energy companies are a regular fixture at WPC Energy events and had been scheduled to speak on stage this week about global oil and gas markets, energy security and the energy transition.
A BP spokesperson said the company had “made every effort to participate” in the conference. “Unfortunately, due to travel disruption, we are unable to be there in person. We greatly value our long-standing partnerships across the region.”
The WPC Energy Congress is taking place this week at a conference center some 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Riyadh’s international airport, which has been attacked four times in the last week.
One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a new attack on the airport on Sunday evening, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed by Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack in the kingdom in more than a decade.
Upcoming midterm elections in the U.S. stand as a main reason behind the Trump administration’s sudden announcement that Russian diesel would be released immediately to American and global markets, analysts and critics say.
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he concluded a “highly successful discussion” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and noted it was agreed that Russia would “immediately” supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace.
“Another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately therafter,” he wrote in a post shared on his Truth Social.
Separately, the U.S. Treasury Department has shared a notice and issued a temporary exemption from sanctions against Russia, permitting the sale, supply, unloading and import of Russian diesel until April 7, 2027.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also announced the immediate lifting of Russia’s ban on diesel exports, according to the state news agency Tass.
Record diesel prices
The prices of diesel reached record highs in the U.S., and many advanced economies, including the U.K., France and Germany, in recent weeks amid the ongoing war between the U.S. and Iran in the Middle East and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
U.S. national average diesel prices reached $6.27 per gallon as of October, according to AAA Fuel Prices.
However, with the midterm elections next month, critics argue that the amount of supply volume shared by Trump is insufficient, also suggesting that Russia is likely unable to produce as much at its refineries impacted by Ukrainian attacks.
Before the reported lift on the ban, Russian authorities had recently extended the ban on exports of diesel untill end of October amid the domestic crunch in supplies – a rare case for the country, which before the invasion of Ukraine was one of the top global energy suppliers.
Can deal ease pressure on prices?
The U.S.-Russia deal, which has led to a rebuke by Ukraine and its European allies, such as Germany, raised a question: could it actually help alleviate the recent cost pressures the customers across Europe and the U.S. have been facing?
Following Trump’s announcement, diesel futures in fact dropped, trading about 4.5% lower at $4.67 per gallon. Data from the NY Harbor chart, displaying costs of futures on Oct. 9, showed that the November price dropped by 4.1% to $4.68.
Still, it is unclear how it would reflect on crude oil prices, with tensions in the Middle East and lately between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels also weighing on the outlook.
Diesel is a refined product, and additional shipments do not automatically increase crude production.
WTI price settled Friday at $91.85 per barrel, up 0.39%, while Brent crude closed at $104.72, gaining 0.42%. Both benchmarks finished higher despite the initial reaction to Trump’s announcement.
But since diesel is used in logistics and agriculture and coupled with the recent G-7 decision to release additional emergency stockpiles, any drop in prices would be welcomed by farmers and companies, which have voiced dissatisfaction with the current level of prices.
The U.S.-Russia deal was also criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after which Trump said the war-torn country needed a new president.
“Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in the war, which must be ended, not prolonged,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram on Friday evening.
German Education Minister Karin Prien on Sunday also criticized Trump over his call for a new Ukrainian president amid the recent U.S.-Russia diesel agreement.
“For a few liters of diesel. What a moral bankruptcy,” Prien said on X in response to Trump’s remarks.
Trump on Saturday called for Ukraine to “get a new president,” accusing Zelenskyy of repeatedly failing to reach a deal to end the war with Russia.
“I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal, because he could have made many deals that, for some reason, he never does,” Trump said.
Meanwhile, Germany reaffirmed its commitment to sanctions against Russia on Saturday following the Trump-Putin agreement, according to German media.
The bank accounts of 214 individuals and companies have been frozen as part of the ongoing investigation into funds and asset management companies following the liquidation order by Turkish authorities, with TL 187 billion (about $3.8 billion) in earnings under scrutiny, according to a Sunday report by Sabah newspaper.
As part of an ongoing investigation into investment funds in Istanbul, authorities identified 141 individuals and 73 companies, 214 in total, who reportedly earned more than TL 100 million from three funds, the report suggested.
The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office is said to have sent the list of these individuals and companies to the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund (TMSF), which has begun formally notifying them about the return of their earnings, it added.
Court orders have also imposed travel bans preventing the relevant individuals and company executives from leaving Türkiye.
Moreover, investigators are reportedly tracing where the money went after it was withdrawn from the investment funds.
On Friday, another report said that Turkish prosecutors have identified 214 individuals and companies they say made a combined TL 187.65 billion from three of the investment funds at the center of the country’s fund turmoil.
The Sunday report names Melis Sütşurup Sandal, the wife of Turkish singer Mustafa Sandal.
According to the investigation documents cited in the report, she reportedly earned TL 2.355 billion from Tera’s TLY investment fund, placing her first among the individuals listed.
Her total withdrawals from fund accounts during 2026 reportedly amounted to nearly TL 15.8 billion. As of Sept. 16, 2026, her fund account reportedly held approximately TL 250 million.
The Financial Crimes Investigation Board, known as MASAK, has also begun examining the bank accounts of people who transferred money from their fund investments into their personal bank accounts. Investigators are said to be preparing detailed reports to determine where the approximately TL 187.65 billion ended up.
Authorities launched a sweeping investigation and market intervention last month after suspected price manipulation in a number of thinly traded stocks triggered heavy losses and redemption pressures at investment funds.
The Capital Markets Board (SPK) halted trading in more than 130 funds on Sept. 17. Nearly half a million investors have been affected.
India targets increasing its steel capacity to 604 million metric tons by 2047 from around 220 million tons at present, according a draft steel policy for public consultation released late on Saturday.
Reuters reported last week, citing the draft document, that the policy lays out plans to cut sector emissions and shore up access to iron ore and coking coal, key raw materials, to meet anticipated demand.
The policy aims to cut the sector’s average carbon-emission intensity to around 1.54 tons of carbon dioxide per ton of crude steel by 2047 from the current 2.54 tons, in line with India’s net zero emission goal for 2070, according to the draft document.
The steel ministry expects iron ore demand at 772 million tons and plans to secure access to high-grade reserves by pursuing foreign assets and joint ventures, the document said.
The ministry also expects coking coal demand to reach 236 million tons, the document said, with the government planning to diversify its sourcing via “strategic global outreach” and acquire overseas assets.
Türkiye generated nearly $823 million from vegetable exports from January through September, up 10% from a year earlier, according to a report on Saturday.
Some 651,087 tons of tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, zucchini, and other vegetables grown in Türkiye found buyers in international markets, according to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from data provided by the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).
Fresh vegetable export revenues, which amounted to some $749.15 million between January and September last year, increased by 10% during the same period this year, reaching $822.68 million.
Tomatoes ranked first among fresh vegetable exports, generating $304.16 million in revenue. Peppers followed, bringing in $275.48 million in export earnings.
Compared with the same period last year, revenue from tomato exports increased by 4%, while revenue from pepper exports rose by 29%. Together, these two products accounted for approximately 70% of total fresh vegetable export revenues.
During this period, Türkiye earned $61.38 million from cucumber and gherkin exports, $57.44 million from zucchini exports, and $39.64 million from carrot and radish exports.
Romania largest export market
Romania ranked first among Türkiye’s fresh vegetable export markets, purchasing products worth approximately $147 million.
Germany followed with $132.7 million, while Russia ranked third with $76 million.
During the same period, Türkiye exported fresh vegetables worth $55.48 million to Bulgaria, $49.96 million to Ukraine, and $47.8 million to the Netherlands.
Hayrettin Uçak, the chair of the Turkish Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Exporters’ Associations Sector Board, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that they viewed the increase in export revenues positively, despite changing conditions throughout the vegetable production season.
“Our exports increased by 10% over the previous year during the first nine months, and this success in exports makes us happy,” Uçak said.
“Neighboring and nearby markets are important for our vegetable exports. We need to closely monitor consumer expectations and shopping habits in the European market. Being able to supply buyers with the products they want, in suitable packaging and on time, plays a decisive role in commercial relationships. In this respect, we consider the growth in exports to Romania and Germany particularly important,” he added.
The scent of fragrant herbs and spices drifts through Tehran’s bazaar, but business is far from brisk. Shopkeeper Nasir says locals who once purchased nuts by the kilo are buying less as the U.S.-Iran war-driven price increases squeeze demand and push traders to the brink.
The marketplace in the Iranian capital’s north would usually be abuzz with customers, but shops now sit mostly empty with only small numbers of people walking its old narrow paths, a jarring shift for the sellers shouting to promote their goods.
“There used to be customers who bought 2 to 5 kilograms. Now, they’re down to buying one kilogram or half a kilogram,” said the 61-year-old.
“Prices are truly high. We all know it, and it would be a lie to say otherwise.”
Nasir called on authorities to stabilize the currency so businesses could plan ahead.
“We’re left in limbo; everyone is,” said the fruit and nut seller.
“They need to stabilize the dollar exchange rate.”
Iran’s economy has been battered by years of sanctions, but the conflict that began in February with U.S.-Israeli attacks and an American blockade of the country’s ports has put extra strain on daily life.
Rising inflation, nearly 90% year-over-year in September according to official figures, and erratic currency exchange fluctuations have driven up the cost of everyday items. Food prices have more than doubled since last year.
At the bazaar, a historic covered market in Tehran’s Tajrish square, locals surrounded by Iranian flags and Persian signage try to escape the economic gloom, scanning sweets, jewellery, traditional garments and cuts of meat before their weekend begins.
In an alley, a street artist plays a guitar while another drums his hands on a box to draw tips from passersby.
‘Just need stability’
But across the commercial district, many struggle to see a future for their businesses.
“It is a desperate, last-ditch struggle. Manufacturers are going bankrupt, laying off staff and closing shops, and the impact inevitably reaches us,” said Ali Nowruzi, 36, who runs a sportswear shop in the bazaar.
The businessman now orders only a few items for display on his shop’s shelves to stop them from looking bare like his warehouse, which he says lies empty due to lack of demand.
“We have absolutely no plan for the future. When people don’t come to buy … it effectively spells bankruptcy for the business,” he said, citing rising rent and utility bills.
“We just need some stability.”
Many shoppers, whose purchasing power has weakened since the outbreak of war, are seen leaving the bazaar without buying anything.
Azadeh, a 45-year-old woman currently out of work, says she just goes there to “watch the shops”.
Mounting pressure over the war saw Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) contract 10.1% year-over-year between late March and late June, according to official figures.
The rial traded at around 2.7 million to the dollar on the unofficial market in the past week, compared with about 1.7 million before the war.
The minimum monthly wage that stood at around $120 a year ago has fallen to $65.
The country’s economy minister has rejected predictions of an imminent economic collapse, accusing Iran’s foes of trying to fuel public anxiety and drive up exchange rates.
Prices ‘skyrocketed’
Azadeh offers a price comparison of a kitchen cloth bought several months ago for 22 cents. She says that the item now costs $1.10, five times more.
“It shows that prices haven’t just gone up; they’ve truly skyrocketed,” she said.
She has stopped buying some fruits and says she can no longer afford holidays.
“We aren’t meant to just exist, we’re meant to actually live, right?” she asked.
Car mechanic Mojtaba Rezaei says his customers have “dropped to a 10th of what it was” because “goods now cost two or three times as much.”
“I actually feel embarrassed telling prices to customers. People just come in, ask the price, and leave,” the 57-year-old told Agence France-Presse (AFP) at the bazaar.
“So many things – buying clothes, going out for leisure, dining at restaurants – have all been cut out of our lives.”
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