Economy
Refund fight looms in US after high court tosses Trump tariffs
The Supreme Court on Friday tossed Donald Trump’s most sweeping tariffs, but left unresolved a $133 billion question: what will happen to the import taxes the government has already collected under levies now deemed unlawful?
Companies have been lining up for refunds. But the way forward could prove chaotic.
When the smoke clears, trade lawyers say, importers are likely to get money back – eventually. “It’s going to be a bumpy ride for awhile,” said trade lawyer Joyce Adetutu, a partner at the Vinson & Elkins law firm.
The refund process is likely to be hashed out by a mix of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency, the specialized Court of International Trade in New York and other lower courts, according to a note to clients by lawyers at the legal firm Clark Hill.
“The amount of money is substantial,” Adetutu said. “The courts are going to have a hard time. Importers are going to have a hard time.”
Still, she added, “it’s going to be really difficult not to have some sort of refund option” given how decisively the Supreme Court repudiated Trump’s tariffs.
In its 6-3 opinion on Friday, the court ruled Trump’s attempt to use an emergency powers law to enact the levies was not valid. Two of the three justices appointed by Trump joined the majority in striking down the first major piece of his second-term agenda to come before them.
At issue are double-digit tariffs Trump imposed on almost every country in the world last year by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Supreme Court ruled that the law did not give the president authority to tax imports, a power that belongs to Congress.
The U.S. customs agency has already collected $133 billion in IEEPA tariffs as of mid-December. But consumers hoping for a refund are unlikely to be compensated for the higher prices they paid when companies passed along the cost of the tariffs; that’s more likely to go to the companies themselves.
In a dissenting opinion, Justice Brett Kavanaugh dinged his colleagues for dodging the refund issue: “The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers.”
Borrowing a word that Justice Amy Coney Barrett – who sided with the majority – used during the court’s November hearing on the case, Kavanaugh warned that “the refund process is likely to be a ‘mess.'”
“I guess it has to get litigated for the next two years,” Trump told reporters at a press conference Friday, in which he decried the court’s decision and said he was “absolutely ashamed” of some justices who ruled against his tariffs. “We’ll end up being in court for the next five years.”
The end of the IEEPA tariffs could help the economy by easing inflationary pressures. The tariff refunds – like other tax refunds – could stimulate spending and growth. But the impacts are likely to be modest.
Most countries still face steep tariffs from the U.S. on specific sectors, and Trump intends to replace the IEEPA levies using other options. The refunds that do get issued will take time to roll out – 12 to 18 months, estimates TD Securities.
The U.S. customs agency does have a process for refunding duties when importers can show there’s been some kind of error. The agency might try to build on the existing system to refund Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, said trade lawyer Dave Townsend, a partner with the law firm Dorsey & Whitney.
And there has been a precedent for courts making arrangements to give companies their money back in trade cases. In the 1990s, the courts struck down as unconstitutional a harbor maintenance fee on exports and set up a system for exporters to apply for refunds.
But the courts and U.S. customs have never had to deal with anything like this – thousands of importers and tens of billions of dollars at once.
“Just because the process is difficult to administer doesn’t mean the government has the right to hold on to fees that were collected unlawfully,″ said trade lawyer Alexis Early, partner at the law firm Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner.
Ryan Majerus, a partner at King & Spalding and a former U.S. trade official, said it’s hard to know how the government will deal with the massive demand for refunds. It might try to streamline the process, perhaps setting up a special website where importers can claim their refunds.
But Adetutu warns that “the government is well-positioned to make this as difficult as possible for importers. I can see a world where they push as much responsibility as possible onto the importer” – maybe forcing them to go to court to seek the refunds.
Many companies, including Costco, Revlon and canned seafood and chicken producer Bumble Bee Foods, filed lawsuits claiming refunds even before the Supreme Court ruled, essentially seeking to be at the head of line if the tariffs were struck down.
There are likely to be more legal battles ahead. Manufacturers might, for example, sue for a share of any refunds given to suppliers that jacked up the price of raw materials to cover the tariffs.
“We may see years of ongoing litigation in multiple jurisdictions,” Early said.
Consumers, though, are unlikely to enjoy a refund windfall. The higher prices they’ve had to pay would likely be hard to attribute to a specific tariff. Should they pursue refunds anyway? Early wouldn’t advise wasting money on legal fees, but said: “In America, we have the ability to file a lawsuit for anything we want.”
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat and Trump antagonist, is demanding a refund on behalf of his state’s 5.11 million households. In a letter addressed to Trump and released by Pritzker’s gubernatorial campaign, the governor said the tariffs had cost each Illinois household $1,700 – or $8.7 billion. Pritzker said failure to pay will elicit “further action.”
Nevada Treasurer Zach Conine submitted a payment request to the federal government for $2.1 billion to recoup the costs of the tariffs, his office announced Friday.
“As Nevada’s chief investment officer, I have a responsibility to try to recoup every single dollar that the Trump Administration takes from Nevada families,” Conine said in a statement.
European airlines are confronting their most serious test since the COVID-19 crisis, as the war in Iran drives up jet fuel costs and disrupts travel across the Middle East, threatening the summer holiday season.
Carriers have largely been riding out the crisis with hedges that have tamed costs, even as jet fuel prices have risen nearly 84% since the start of the conflict on Feb. 28, but they could face shortages if the war does not end soon.
“There is a risk that we’ll see rationing of fuel supply, particularly in Asia and Europe,” Willie Walsh, head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told Reuters on Tuesday, while adding that supply remained robust for now.
Walsh said, however, that the situation was not yet as bad as the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, which led to travel demand plummeting and hundreds of billions of dollars in losses for the aviation sector.
“I think COVID was on a completely different scale,” Walsh added. “What we’re seeing here is, in effect, a cost issue for the airlines. The underlying demand for aviation remains robust, and that’s a positive.”
Jet fuel price hedges start to run out
The war has hit airline shares, with on-again-off-again peace talks to end the conflict and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz to normalize global oil and gas flows in what is the worst energy crisis in decades.
Airlines are now warning about their hedges – which help lock in set prices – running out, with outlooks increasingly murky as people delay booking travel or make plans closer to home to avoid potential disruption and higher fares.
Sweden’s Energy Minister Ebba Busch on Tuesday fired an “early warning” about potential jet fuel shortages despite good current supply, cautioning Swedes to think through travel plans.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, however, played down concerns. “We think the risk of a supply disruption is receding,” he told Reuters, citing conversations with suppliers across Europe earlier in the week.
European budget airline Wizz Air CEO Jozsef Varadi said on Monday that summer bookings were strong. However, easyJet and tour operator TUI announced drops in forward bookings and issued profit warnings in recent weeks.
Varadi, meanwhile, cautioned that even an end to the conflict would not quickly resolve high fuel prices.
“Even if the war is stopped in Iran, I don’t think this is going to put the fuel price back to what it used to be two months ago,” he told reporters in London.
Air France-KLM, British Airways-owner IAG and Lufthansa are set to report first-quarter results starting this week. Between them, they have raised prices and cut flight capacity in response to the war.
Winners, losers
Gulf airlines have been the hardest hit, with data from Cirium Ascend showing that flights operated by Middle Eastern operators dropped 50% year-on-year in March, while bookings for the second and third quarters connecting via the main Gulf hubs are down 42.5%.
Global passenger capacity, however, remains up near 2% so far in 2026 versus 2025, it said, underscoring wider resilience.
The crisis has, though, dampened margins and sharpened the gap between weaker and stronger players. Some have dodged the impact. Finland’s flag carrier Finnair said the crisis had so far had a net positive impact, with more demand for its Asian flights. Budget airline Norwegian on Tuesday brushed off jet fuel supply risks.
Cirium Ascend’s head of valuations, George Dimitroff, said airlines have adapted and evolved through various crises and agreed COVID-19 had been “a much bigger hit.”
“They’re much, much more agile now than they were in the previous decade and let alone two or three decades prior when they were pretty hopeless at it,” Dimitroff said.
Markets in Türkiye are set to focus on a busy economic calendar in May, with investors closely watching a series of key data releases, central bank messages and policy signals from senior economic officials.
Attention will initially turn to Trade Minister Ömer Bolat, who is expected to announce April foreign trade figures at an event in the Black Sea province of Ordu on Saturday. Goods exports stood at $21.9 billion in March, marking a roughly $1.5 billion decline compared with a year earlier. Imports rose 8.4% to $33.2 billion.
The decline in shipments had been attributed to the Middle East conflict, the Eid al-Fitr holiday and the calendar effect.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release April inflation data on Monday, a key indicator for markets assessing the pace of disinflation and future monetary policy.
The Iran war sent energy prices soaring, posing a challenge for import-heavy economies like Türkiye, where inflation still eased to 30.87% in March. Month-over-month, consumer prices rose 1.94%.
Investors will also monitor March industrial production data, due on May 8, after the index rose 2.6% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year in February.
On May 13, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) will publish March balance of payments data. Türkiye posted a current account deficit of $7.5 billion in February, while the current account excluding gold and energy recorded a $1.46 billion shortfall.
Housing sales data for April will be released on May 14. Total home sales in March declined 2.1% year-over-year to 113,367 units.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry is scheduled to announce the April central government budget data on May 15. In March, the budget showed a deficit of nearly TL 223 billion. Budget revenues totaled TL 1.23 trillion, while expenditures amounted to TL 1.46 trillion.
Additional data due on May 18 include consumer confidence and first quarter labor statistics. Consumer confidence edged up 0.5% in April to 85.5.
Markets will also watch a participation finance summit to be held on May 7 at the Istanbul Financial Center.
The event is expected to feature remarks from Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) Chair Şahap Kavcıoğlu, Investment and Finance Office President Burak Dağlıoğlu and Participation Banks Association of Türkiye Chair Mehmet Ali Akben.
Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek is also scheduled to speak in a special session.
Meanwhile, CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan will brief lawmakers at Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee on May 5, with interest rates and inflation-fighting policies expected to dominate the agenda.
Karahan is set to unveil the central bank’s second inflation report of the year on May 14, a closely watched event that could provide fresh guidance on the inflation outlook, growth risks and the monetary policy path.
The CBRT in February kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16% but lifted its forecast range to 15%-21% from 13%-19% previously.
The central bank will conclude the month’s key releases with its Financial Stability Report on May 22, offering markets another readout on risks facing Türkiye’s financial system.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his current term as Americans grow more dissatisfied with his handling of the cost of living and the unpopular war with Iran, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
The four-day poll completed Monday showed 34% of Americans approve of Trump’s performance in the White House, down from 36% in a prior Reuters/Ipsos survey, which was conducted from April 15 to 20.
The majority of responses were gathered prior to the Saturday night shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner, where Trump was due to speak.
Federal prosecutors have charged the accused shooter with attempting to assassinate the president.
Trump’s standing with the U.S. public has trended lower since taking office in January 2025, when 47% of Americans gave him a thumbs-up.
His popularity has taken a beating since the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran on Feb. 28 which has led to a surge in gasoline prices.
Only 22% of poll respondents approved of Trump’s performance on the cost of living, down from 25% in the prior Reuters/Ipsos poll.
The survey, which was conducted nationwide and online, gathered responses from 1,014 U.S. adults and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Türkiye’s credit guarantee fund has inked a cooperation protocol with a major fund for Southeast Europe to develop a new program supporting sustainable agriculture, according to a report on Tuesday.
The Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) has signed a cooperation protocol with the European Fund for Southeast Europe (EFSE) to develop a new guarantee program for sustainable agriculture, aimed at strengthening farmers’ and agricultural enterprises’ access to finance in Türkiye, the Anadolu Agency (AA) report said.
In his speech at the signing ceremony, KGF’s general manager, Hasan Basri Kurt, stated that they have taken significant steps toward establishing “a green list” and supporting agriculture through this method.
Kurt drew attention to the fact that the green list method had never been implemented in Turkish agriculture before, and said: “We see this as a project that will provide access to international funds, contribute to the development of Turkish agriculture, prevent waste in sustainable agriculture, increase efficiency and serve as a key solution.”
He noted that they have now launched the Agricultural Guarantee Program, and that a limit of approximately TL 30 billion (around $667 million) has been allocated across 10 banks, emphasizing that sustainability stands before them as an entirely new perspective.
“Thanks to this sustainable green list, banks in Türkiye will have access to international finance and will be able to offer loans to our farmers under better terms with lower funding costs,” he suggested.
EFSE Portfolio Manager Jasminka Begert highlighted the special importance of this project that promotes sustainable agriculture for them, and expressed pride in cooperating with KGF in this context.
Begert stated that while supporting the financing of sustainable agriculture, they share a common vision with KGF and said, “In addition to the urgency of the actions we aim to implement, we also see the opportunities it will create for Türkiye’s agricultural sector.”
“For this purpose, we aim to enhance both KGF’s and the participating banks’ technical capacity to properly finance sustainable agriculture, thereby supporting farmers’ more climate-smart, sustainable, and efficient production,” she added.
Scope of the protocol
Under the protocol, EFSE is expected to provide a fund of approximately 100 million euros (nearly $117 million) in Türkiye through certain banks, with the resources to be allocated to agricultural enterprises that meet “green list” criteria.
KGF will design a guarantee product for these loans, particularly aiming to facilitate access to finance for enterprises with insufficient collateral.
The Pilot Sustainable Agriculture Guarantee Program to be developed will provide partial credit guarantees for working capital and investment loans. Climate-friendly technologies, resource efficiency and environmentally sustainable agricultural activities will be encouraged. Green list criteria will be integrated into both the credit and guarantee processes, establishing a standardized approach to sustainable agricultural finance.
Additionally, a special technical support program for KGF has been designed under the cooperation. Within the program, the design and operational processes of KGF guarantee product will be improved, and the green list will be integrated into KGF’s Portfolio Guarantee System.
The “green list” is also known as sustainable agricultural activities and investments.
The list includes topics such as the production of protein crops, the improvement of agricultural input efficiency, water efficiency, zero tillage, organic production, beekeeping, circular agriculture, sustainable livestock, and aquaculture.
Energy prices are projected to jump 24% in 2026, reaching their highest level since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine four years ago, assuming the most severe disruptions from the Middle East war subside by May, the World Bank said on Tuesday.
Commodity prices could rise even further if hostilities in the region escalated and supply disruptions lasted longer than expected, the global development bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The bank said its baseline scenario assumed that shipping volumes through the crucial Strait of Hormuz waterway would gradually return to near pre-war levels by October, but said the risks were “markedly tilted” toward higher prices.
The bank’s baseline projects a 16% increase in overall commodity prices in 2026, given soaring energy and fertilizer prices and record-high prices for several key metals.
Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday as efforts to end the U.S.-Iran war stalled and the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut, keeping energy supplies, fertilizer and other commodities from the key Middle East producing region out of the reach of global buyers.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the strait, which before the war carried 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, the World Bank said.
It said Brent crude oil prices remained more than 50% higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025, the bank said.
Oil prices could average as high as $115 a barrel this year if critical energy facilities suffered more war damage and export volumes were slow to recover, it said.
Brent crude futures for June were trading around $109 a barrel on Tuesday after hitting their highest close since April 7 on Monday.
“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill said.
The shock would hit the poorest hardest, adding to the woes of highly indebted developing countries.
Pressure seen on food supply
Fertilizer prices were projected to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in the price of urea, the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer, which is produced by converting natural gas to produce ammonia and carbon dioxide.
The surge in fertilizer prices would fuel pressures on food supply, eroding farmers’ incomes and threatening future crop yields. The World Food Programme estimates that 45 million more people could face acute food insecurity this year if the war continues for a prolonged period.
The World Bank said inflation in developing economies was now projected to average 5.1% in 2026, under the baseline scenario, up from 4.7% last year and a full percentage point higher than pre-war forecasts. But inflation could rise as high as 5.8% in developing economies if the war was prolonged.
Growth would also take a big hit, the bank said. Developing economies were now projected to grow by just 3.6% in 2026, down from a pre-war forecast of 4% growth.
Belgian companies see Türkiye as deeply integrated with European economic value chains, Belgium’s ambassador to Ankara, Hendrik Van de Velde, said in a recent interview, ahead of a major trade mission led by Queen Mathilde scheduled for next month.
Van de Velde said the value chains of Turkish and European economies are “fully integrated,” adding that more than half of Türkiye’s economy is linked to European markets.
His remarks to Anadolu Agency (AA) came before the Belgian Economic Mission to Türkiye planned for May 10-14, with meetings in Istanbul and Ankara.
The delegation, led by Queen Mathilde, is expected to include about 450 participants, including roughly 250 business leaders.
The mission will focus on pharmaceuticals, logistics, sustainable energy, digital transformation, and defense and aviation cooperation.
Belgian officials also expect agreements in air transport, social security, agriculture and health care during the visit.
Van de Velde said Türkiye’s defense sector has grown significantly over the past decade and has become a major driver of the country’s economy.
The delegation, working with the Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB), plans visits to major defense firms including Baykar, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and Aselsan, he noted.
The ambassador said Belgium also has strong firms in the sector, though generally smaller in scale than their Turkish counterparts, adding that Belgium’s space and aviation cluster could align with Turkish manufacturing capacity.
On the logistics side, the bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Belgium is valued at around 13 billion euros ($15.2 billion).
Belgium ranks fifth among EU countries in trade with Türkiye, according to the ambassador.
Van de Velde also said improved predictability for foreign direct investment (FDI) would support long-term cooperation, with Belgium serving as a hub in the eurozone and Türkiye acting as a transit gateway linking Asia, Europe and Africa.
Airlines’ summer holiday plans clouded by Iran war, jet fuel woes
Türkiye says Serbia key for Balkans’ stability
An investigation was launched against Şile Municipality for three separate crimes: 86 thousand TL salary, 180 thousand TL additional payment…
Airlines’ summer holiday plans clouded by Iran war, jet fuel woes
Türkiye says Serbia key for Balkans’ stability
An investigation was launched against Şile Municipality for three separate crimes: 86 thousand TL salary, 180 thousand TL additional payment…
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