Politics
Relics, newcomers will fight, ally in Türkiye’s busy political scene
The elections have been a two-handed game in the past two decades, thanks to the Justice and Development Party’s (AK Party) incomparable success. Its main rival, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), fights for political survival amid internal friction and mounting allegations of corruption. Smaller parties continue to calculate the risks of aligning with it in the next election and going alone or through a separate alliance against the AK Party and its beloved leader, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Erdoğan has been a game-changer in Türkiye’s democratic history and has been at the helm of Türkiye’s longest since the founder, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, as prime minister and president. After more than two decades in power, his AK Party is still ahead according to some opinion polls. In others, the party has a narrow gap with the CHP, while neither of the parties’ rivals comes close. For instance, an April survey by Optimar shows the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) scored 9.6% after the CHP, while another poll from March by Genar indicates the DEM Party can secure 8.9% of the vote after the AK Party and the CHP.
According to the official figures, there are 188 political parties in Türkiye. Most remain functional in name only, while several among them have less than 100 members, and maybe even fewer voters. The abundance of parties is a sign of the democratic wealth of the country, which has gone through three coups and more attempts by the military to interfere in politics. It is also a blessing for bigger, older parties, which usually rely on voter behavior to side with the winning side in the elections, though their loyalty might lie elsewhere at other times.
Some are “relics” not in the true sense of the word, but rather, due to the waning popularity of political views they defended. Those relics also include spiritual successors of once-popular parties. The newcomers referred to in the title, meanwhile, are mostly founded by dissidents of bigger parties, though some among them are truly new to politics, seeking to garner votes from those dissatisfied with the course their old parties took, namely the AK Party, the CHP and the AK Party’s ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).
Here are likely winners and losers of the next election scheduled to be held in 2028, although AK Party signaled that it may be rescheduled to the fall of 2027. Wins and losses, however, can be limited to the parliamentary seats as the AK Party and the CHP will likely dominate the polls again, based on recent surveys.
Key Party
The “A Party,” as it formally refers to itself, was founded in 2024 by Yavuz Ağıralioğlu, a 54-year-old former lawmaker who made his foray into politics in the Great Unity Party (BBP) before switching to the Good Party (IP) in 2018, only to resign in 2023. The party has set out to be a “key” to what it called “a deadlock in the system,” according to its manifesto, a reference apparently to the unending race between the AK Party and CHP. This was affirmed by Ağıralioğlu in a recent interview. He also claimed that the party has become popular among voters of the AK Party, MHP and IP, and to a degree, the CHP. With former AK Party and IP members among its founders and executive board, the A Party inevitably set its politics strictly to the right and its proposed policies, such as immediate deportation of all migrants and Syrian refugees, draw comparisons to fellow underdogs in the political scene.
Soon after its foundation, the party joined the growing list of political pundits’ “third-way parties” in the face of the AK Party and the CHP domination. In the ideological sense, it does not offer an all-embracing approach, but it managed to make it to the opinion polls, scoring slightly above 1% in Optimar’s survey. Areda-Survey’s poll put it above 4%. The party is not intent on being a part of future alliance against or with the AK Party, but as a quote attributed to late veteran politician Süleyman Demirel says, “Even 24 hours is a long time in politics,” and this stand may change in an instant when the election season begins.
New Welfare Party
Often leading or trailing behind the A Party in opinion polls, the YRP proved its potential in the 2024 municipal elections by securing more than 6% of the vote. Founded in 2018 by Fatih Erbakan, son of former Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, it follows the path of the late politician, specifically “National View” ideology, something also shared by the Felicity Party (SP). The YRP allied with the People’s Alliance of the AK Party and MHP in 2023 before parting ways after the elections.
Younger Erbakan seeks to build upon the legacy of his father, who managed to rally disenfranchised conservative voters stuck in center-right parties for decades. Erbakan’s “National View,” which also sought to attract voters with wildly different world views, especially through anti-imperialist elements of the ideology, made the now-defunct Welfare Party (RP) a rising star in the politics of the 1990s. The RP is where President Erdoğan honed his political and oratory skills, and the AK Party has managed to attract some of its former supporters when the party was closed and its reincarnation, the Virtue Party (FP), was split.
The YRP did not veer much from the RP in its policies and mainly targeted voters who were adherents of the National View and disillusioned with the AK Party’s changing ways, specifically the widening political spectrum of the party. A rise in the polls indicates that this strategy may work. Forty-seven-year-old Erbakan is among the youngest of the leaders of prominent parties, but age has rarely been a determining factor in the choices of voters in multiparty elections since 1950.
The party recently tried to lure voters critical of the government’s policies toward Israel, adopting a rhetoric that the AK Party was not doing much to stop Israel’s genocide in Gaza and its power in the international community. It is unclear how it may bring more votes to the party, where the economic challenges are expected to be a more significant factor in the choices of the voters in the next election.
The YRP does not favor another bid in the People’s Alliance, but it is open to aligning with the SP in the next election. Though Erbakan is confident about going solo, he also signaled openness to allying with other parties as well, including the Democracy and Progress (DEVA) and the Future Party (GP), which were founded by former members of the AK Party.
DEVA and GP
Although they are separate entities under Turkish laws, DEVA and GP are almost one in their policies and voter base. This eventually led to an alliance in the parliament under the New Path banner, together with the SP.
The DEVA was founded in 2020 by Former Minister Ali Babacan, once a rising young politician in the AK Party. He apparently followed the example of former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who established SP one year before. In the 2023 elections, both parties relied on the main opposition to secure parliamentary seats, while they had no dream of having their own candidates against Erdoğan and his rival, CHP’s Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Babacan and Davutoğlu succeeded in convincing former AK Party supporters, including former ministers and those who served on the AK Party boards. Yet, this has not been enough to pass the electoral threshold.
Like the parties above, they can be lumped with right-wing or center-right parties, and their policies do not differ much from the AK Party’s policies in the early 2000s. Indeed, they have more in common with the AK Party than the six-party bloc they supported against Erdoğan in 2023. Their alliance with the opposition will likely continue in the next election, though they may prefer siding with the FP and the YRP instead of the CHP. Defeat of the CHP’s candidate Kılıçdaroğlu in the 2023 elections cost the main opposition party’s chair his seat but also revealed seething anger among CHP supporters against DEVA and FP lawmakers who won seats with CHP loyalists’ votes. The FP and DEVA were accused of being freeloaders who run under the CHP banner in the legislative elections in exchange for voicing their support for Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy. This mounting criticism effectively shut the door to another alliance, though both parties still appear to be on good terms with the CHP administration after Kılıçdaroğlu was replaced with Özgür Özel following his devastating electoral loss.
Good Party
Once hailed as the primary alternative to the MHP, IP now floats somewhere between a hub for nationalists who fell out with the MHP due to its proliferating alliance with the AK Party and a stopover or last destination for CHP voters believing that the party is too left-wing for their taste. The IP’s sole ideological compass adhering to the right-wing politics of yesteryear may bring in votes from the elderly voters, unlike the Victory Party (ZP), which appears to lure much younger voters despite a similar policy with the IP.
The party’s membership and poll numbers show a downward trend, as voters who prioritize national stability increasingly return to the MHP or look toward newer nationalist experiments. The party now faces the risk of becoming a “relic” before it ever truly matures, as it struggles to convince the public that it offers anything more than a diluted version of the MHP’s robust nationalism, willing to take risks for sustaining the state.
Party Chair Müsavat Dervişoğlu underlined that they were not open to alliances, especially establishing a “nationalist league” and relying on what little support it has to run in the future elections independently. Any future alliance may further erode the support, as the 2023 elections demonstrated.
Victory Party
One of the youngest parties, the ZP was founded in 2021 by 65-year-old Ümit Özdağ. Özdağ’s easygoing public image and oratory skills helped the party to attract voters at a time of rising anti-migrant, anti-refugee sentiment in the public. A diehard nationalist, Özdağ tempted impressionable youth with his radical discourse, which is blamed for notorious riots against migrants and refugees.
Unfortunately for the ZP, this appears to be the only thing the party is known for. With the end of the Syrian civil war and refugees returning home, the party might lose voters attracted to Özdağ’s narrative of “sending all refugees home immediately by Victory Tourism buses.”
In the 2023 elections and subsequent polls leading to 2026, the ZP has functioned more as a disruptor than a viable governing partner. Its aggressive stance often alienates the very conservative-nationalist base it hopes to win from the MHP and the AK Party. Though it captures a small, reactionary segment of the youth vote, its lack of a holistic platform makes it an unlikely contender for any serious power-sharing in the future. Still, the ZP is among the most willing to form alliances and most recently, called on the CHP to establish one with them for an “Ataturkist alliance.”
DEM Party
The DEM Party does not quite fit in the categories of relic or newcomer, but developments may render it the former. The latest incarnation of a left-wing ideology claiming to fight for the rights of the Kurdish community, the DEM Party holds considerable sway among the electorate, often trailing behind the CHP and occasionally overtaking the MHP in the opinion polls. Its spiritual predecessors have also enjoyed the same success in the elections.
The party’s electorate is strictly confined to Kurds, especially those concentrated in southeastern Türkiye. Despite securing roughly 8% in recent surveys, the party remains hamstrung by its inability to distance itself from the shadow of terrorism, which remains a red line for the majority of the electorate. Like its predecessors, the DEM Party has been a staunch supporter of the PKK terrorist group. A surprise initiative by the government to end the PKK terrorism outside of solely military means limited the DEM Party’s ambitions to thrive on pro-PKK propaganda to attract voters. In the past two years, the DEM Party has found itself in unexpected places: a messenger between PKK jailed ringleader Abdullah Öcalan and the general public, a guest at the Presidential Complex and in the offices of MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, who publicly caught them off guard when he extended an olive branch to the party he once openly despised through well-known remarks in the past.
That the DEM Party and the CHP flirted with the idea of an alliance in the past elections and a so-called “urban compromise,” a not-so-hidden alliance for the DEM Party to support the CHP in big western cities where it has a slim chance of winning, is attributed to the main opposition’s growing success. Yet, with the terror-free Türkiye initiative launched by Bahçeli, the DEM Party has aligned more with the People’s Alliance, at least for the sake of the initiative. The DEM Party’s strict opposition and scathing rhetoric did not change much, though. The CHP or the DEM Party itself may try another shot at an alliance, hidden or obvious. But the CHP will have to risk losing voters who view the terror-free Türkiye initiative as a concession to the PKK.
The spirit of Peace and Freedom Day gripped the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) on Monday. Prominent guests from Türkiye joined locals to mark the anniversary of the 1974 Peace Operation launched by Ankara. The day marks a milestone in the community’s struggle for independence. In a message on the occasion, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pledged that they would not abandon the people of the TRNC in their righteous cause, “as the motherland and guarantor state.”
Erdoğan’s message, issued through social media, was also a remembrance of martyrs and veterans who sacrificed their lives decades ago to stop attacks, atrocities and torture by Greek Cypriots on the divided island.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz and Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler represented Türkiye at the events in the TRNC, which included a military parade. Opposition politician Müsavat Dervişoğlu also joined the events.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also issued a message on the occasion, stating that the military intervention secured the freedom, security and future of the Turkish Cypriot people while reaffirming Ankara’s commitment to defending their rights.
“We proudly and enthusiastically celebrate the 52nd anniversary of the Cyprus Peace Operation, which secured the freedom, security and future of the Turkish Cypriot people,” Fidan said in a statement shared on social media.
He said that on this day, 52 years ago, Türkiye acted in line with the rights and obligations arising from the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, carrying out the Cyprus Peace Operation alongside Turkish Cypriot resistance fighters.
“Türkiye, shoulder to shoulder with our heroic Mujahideen, ensured the safety of our Turkish Cypriot brothers and sisters, who were facing the threat of annihilation, and guaranteed their presence on the island,” Fidan said. He added that the Turkish Armed Forces also laid the foundation for the peace, stability and security that have prevailed on the island for more than half a century.
“Today, Turkish Cypriots continue their lives freely, honorably and securely under the roof of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus,” he said. Reaffirming Ankara’s position, Fidan said: “As the motherland and guarantor, Türkiye will continue, as it has in the past, to resolutely defend the rights and interests of the Turkish Cypriot people.”
He also paid tribute to the Turkish soldiers and Turkish Cypriot fighters who lost their lives during the operation, expressing gratitude to veterans for their service.
The Cyprus Peace Operation was the culmination of a series of developments that rocked the island following the establishment of the now-defunct Republic of Cyprus in 1960. The republic’s Constitution enshrined equal political rights and status for the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities, yet Greek Cypriots were intent on obtaining more.
The dominant mindset among Greek Cypriots was “Enosis,” or unification with Greece. In 1963, the republic collapsed after Greek Cypriots unilaterally nullified the Constitution. The following years saw heavy armament within the Greek Cypriot community, with the support of Greece, and escalating harassment of Turkish Cypriots.
In 1963, Greek Cypriot gangs started implementing the “Akritas Plan,” outlined in an eponymous secret document that proposed methods to neutralize the Turkish Cypriot community’s resistance to the idea of “Enosis.” The murder of two Turkish Cypriots in their car in Lefkoşa (Nicosia) on Dec. 20, 1963, was the first major instance of violence. More attacks followed, mostly claimed by the Greek Cypriot terrorist group EOKA. On Dec. 23, 1963, 21 Turkish Cypriots were shot dead execution-style. Within a year, dozens of Turkish Cypriots were killed in attacks.
Attacks prompted the rise of a secret Turkish Cypriot resistance movement whose members became known as “mücahits” (fighters). Türkiye initially limited its response to sending fighter jets to the island as a warning to Greek Cypriots. During one of those flights, Capt. Cengiz Topel of the Turkish Air Forces Command was captured by Greek Cypriots after his plane was shot down. Topel was tortured to death in captivity, while more Turkish military flights followed.
Although it secretly supported the Turkish Cypriots, Türkiye opted for diplomacy to resolve the issue for years. When EOKA leader Nikos Sampson, backed by the military junta in Greece, seized power on July 15, 1974, Türkiye decided to greenlight military action. Ankara initially suggested joint military action to the United Kingdom, another guarantor state for the island, but London declined. The Turkish coalition government of Bülent Ecevit and Deputy Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan agreed to launch the military operation, invoking Türkiye’s status as a guarantor state.
Türkiye ceased military action two days after it began, seeking to pursue diplomacy again. Talks among the guarantor states ended with the Geneva Declaration on July 30, 1974, which called for the evacuation of Turkish Cypriot enclaves occupied by Greek Cypriots and the restoration of constitutional order.
In the second round of talks on Aug. 8, 1974, Greece rejected the proposal for restoration and insisted on the withdrawal of Turkish forces from the island, while Greek troops and Greek Cypriot militias had not withdrawn from the Turkish Cypriot enclaves. As the talks failed, Türkiye declared the launch of the second operation on Aug. 14, with the now-famous code phrase ordering the operation: “Let Ayşe go for vacation.”
The operation lasted two days but was enough to push back the Greek Cypriots. More violence followed, however, as Greek Cypriot troops massacred villagers during their withdrawal. The Turkish army lost 498 soldiers during the operation, while 270 people, including 70 mücahits, were among the casualties in the Turkish Cypriot community.
The operation, which ultimately prevented Cyprus’ incorporation into Greece, paved the way for strengthening the safety of the Turkish Cypriot community. July 20 is observed as a memorial day by Greek Cypriots.
Since the 1970s, the U.N., which has maintained a peacekeeping force patrolling a 180-kilometer (116-mile) buffer zone bisecting Cyprus from east to west, has made several attempts to end the dispute, but to no avail. Greek Cypriot voters rejected a U.N. peace plan in a 2004 referendum, and the Greek Cypriot administration entered the European Union on its own, while Turkish Cypriots were denied the full benefits of membership.
Conquering fear
The Peace Operation is still a vivid memory for Turkish Cypriot mücahits. One of them, Nejat Kocaismail, hails what he calls the arrival of peace on the island. Hüseyin Arpalıklı recounts how they “conquered the fear” when Turkish troops landed in Cyprus. “I remember hugging the troops,” Arpalıklı told Anadolu Agency (AA) on the anniversary of the operation.
Halil Coşkun Alaslanlı remembers seeing Turkish troops hoisting their flag on Çadır Hill in the village of Gaziler on July 22, 1974. “We ran toward them and hugged them. Everyone was crying. They were tears of happiness. We then ran home and brought water to the soldiers. In turn, they shared their food with us. It was a day of excitement,” Alaslanlı said.
Coşkun Adaber was among the Turkish troops participating in the operation. Now serving as the head of a veterans’ association in the southern Turkish city of Adana, Adaber was a gendarmerie commando in 1974.
“We arrived in Kırnı (a logistics hub of the Turkish army in a mountainous area of Cyprus) by helicopter. We then joined paratroopers and a brigade. We were nervous and a little scared, but it did not last long,” he told Ihlas News Agency (IHA) on Monday.
Adaber spent 15 months in Cyprus, including more than nine months in the mountains of Cyprus.
Hacı Özdaş, another veteran from Adana, recounts arriving in Cyprus before dawn at a place “reeking of gunpowder.” “It was like Cyprus was on fire,” he said. Özdaş was an anti-aircraft gunner and remembers seeing soldiers crying after their vessel was struck by friendly fire. Özdaş still harbors good feelings for Cyprus.
“If they called me to action, I would gladly go back there to protect them. It is a mission for patriots,” he said.
The former chairperson of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) is rumored to make his final speech at the parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday. Multiple media outlets, particularly those associated with Özgür Özel, claimed he would declare the establishment of the “New Party” during the meeting, which will be broadcast live. He had earlier signaled that he might found the new party by the end of July.
Media reports say the Özel camp has already commissioned logos for the party and designated offices in Ankara. The country’s patent authority has also received applications to register the name “New Party,” but it remains unclear whether Özel or his associates submitted the application.
Özel was ousted from his post last May after a court ordered the reinstatement of his predecessor, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, citing irregularities in a 2023 intraparty vote in which Özel was elected to the top office. Özel has appealed the verdict, and the case is before the Supreme Court of Appeals, although it is not expected to be resolved soon. Last Friday, a court of appeals referred the case to the Supreme Court of Appeals for reassessment. The Supreme Court of Appeals is expected to issue a final verdict soon.
The Anka news agency, which has close links with the CHP, announced that Özel would formally apply to the Interior Ministry on July 27 for the establishment of the party.
Özel is also expected to hold a series of meetings this week regarding the new party. Following the CHP’s weekly parliamentary group meeting on Tuesday, he will meet with the party’s provincial chairpersons who opposed the current administration. On Wednesday, July 22, Özel will chair meetings with members of the CHP’s former Party Assembly and Central Executive Board. He is also expected to meet with his party’s lawmakers later this week.
Following the establishment of the new party, a large-scale realignment is expected to take place in Parliament. In the initial phase, at least 70 lawmakers are expected to join the new party, though this number is disputed by party sources close to Kılıçdaroğlu. Once the registration process is completed, the party is expected to announce a timetable for forming its leadership and parliamentary group.
Türkiye’s Foreign Ministry on Monday reaffirmed the country’s commitment to the Montreux Convention on the 90th anniversary of the deal regarding Türkiye’s straits.
“The Convention, which reaffirmed our country’s sovereignty over the Turkish Straits as its internal waters, has been implemented by Türkiye with neutrality, transparency and diligence for the past 90 years,” the ministry said in a statement.
“As one of the main guarantees of peace, security and stability in the Black Sea, the Convention has consistently remained in force in both times of peace and war, proving its enduring value,” it added.
“As it has done to date, Türkiye will continue to implement the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits with the same determination in the years ahead,” the ministry said.
First enacted in November 1936, the 29-article Montreux Convention grants Türkiye control over the Bosporus and Dardanelles, allowing it to regulate the passage of naval warships while guaranteeing free transit for civilian vessels in peacetime.
The treaty imposes strict limits on non-Black Sea states, including caps on warship tonnage and a maximum stay of 21 days in the Black Sea.
Notably, under Article 21, Türkiye has the right to close the straits to protect itself in times of war or when it perceives an imminent threat.
The Convention is under the spotlight as Black Sea security faces the risk of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Türkiye’s Center for Countering Disinformation (DMM) rejected Monday claims circulating on social media that Türkiye is an occupying power on the island of Cyprus, saying its military presence there is lawful under international agreements.
In a statement, the center said Türkiye’s 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation was carried out to stop attacks and systematic massacres targeting the Turkish Cypriot community.
The DMM said the intervention was conducted within the framework of Türkiye’s rights and obligations under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee, arguing that the operation helped restore peace on the island and paved the way for the collapse of Greece’s military junta.
The center dismissed claims that the presence of Turkish troops in northern Cyprus is illegitimate, saying they remain a guarantor of the security, sovereignty and safety of the Turkish Cypriot people.
It also accused unnamed actors of spreading disinformation by portraying Türkiye’s actions as an occupation, arguing that such narratives ignore international law and historical developments.
Türkiye has maintained that its military presence in northern Cyprus is based on its guarantor status under the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee. Under the leadership of President Erdoğan, Türkiye continues to implement policies that provide full support to Turkish Cypriots.
Greek Cypriots advocate for the reunification of the island with a bi-communal administrative system, while the TRNC insists on a two-state solution where it will be recognized as a sovereign state.
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his Qatari counterpart, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, on Sunday, a few days after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the country to extend condolences for the late emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. Fidan was also received by Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani.
During his visit to Doha, Fidan is expected to reaffirm Türkiye’s solidarity with Qatar following the recent attacks on the Gulf nation and underscore Ankara’s continued support during talks with Qatari officials, according to Turkish diplomatic sources.
The meetings between Turkish and Qatari officials will also focus on the growing strategic partnership between the two countries and ways to deepen cooperation across a range of sectors. The discussions are expected to cover preparations for the 12th meeting of the Türkiye-Qatar High Strategic Committee, which is scheduled to take place in Türkiye later this year under the co-chairmanship of Erdoğan and Emir Al Thani. Fidan is also expected to emphasize that recent regional developments have once again highlighted the strategic importance of defense and military cooperation between Türkiye and Qatar. The agenda will include discussions on the need to address regional issues through dialogue and diplomacy, based on the principle of regional ownership, while calling for stronger joint efforts to advance that approach. The talks will also focus on enhancing cooperation on connectivity, which has become increasingly important for economic stability and energy security.
According to the sources, Fidan is expected to say that achieving a lasting resolution to tensions in the Gulf and preventing renewed escalation remain the most urgent priorities. He is also expected to exchange views on ongoing diplomatic initiatives and mediation efforts, underscore the importance of ensuring safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and stress the need to remain vigilant against Israel’s destabilizing activities. The minister will also share Türkiye’s assessment of the situation in Gaza and recent developments related to the Gaza Peace Plan.
Fidan last visited Qatar on May 11 and 12. Türkiye-Qatar ties Türkiye and Qatar have steadily deepened their strategic partnership since establishing it in 2014 through high-level exchanges and bilateral agreements spanning a wide range of fields. The Türkiye-Qatar High Strategic Committee, the highest institutional mechanism guiding bilateral relations, has met annually since 2015, alternating between the two countries. The most recent meeting was held in Doha on Oct. 22, 2025. The next session is expected to take place in Türkiye later this year. Bilateral trade reached $1.1 billion in 2025, and both countries aim to increase it to $5 billion in the coming years. The Türkiye-Qatar Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement entered into force on Aug. 1, 2025.
Türkiye’s Peace Operation in 1974 brought immense relief to oppressed Turkish Cypriots in divided Cyprus and paved the way for the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). As Türkiye and the TRNC prepare to mark its anniversary, the future still remains uncertain for Turkish Cypriots, except for the unwavering support in all venues by the guarantor state, Türkiye.
Little progress has been made since the 1974 operation to end the uncertainty over the status of Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots on the Mediterranean island. The TRNC remains widely unrecognized by the international community while Türkiye is steadfast in protecting them amid a lingering threat from Greek Cypriots, who managed to secure recognition as the so-called Republic of Cyprus that excludes Turkish Cypriots.
Turkish Cypriots’ equal sovereign rights remain an unresolved issue in ongoing talks between the two sides on the island, while Greek Cypriots expand their partnerships, especially with rivals of Türkiye in the Mediterranean.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz is expected to represent Türkiye at the events in Lefkoşa (Nicosia) in the TRNC to mark the anniversary, along with a large delegation from the country, including Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler and the military brass. Yılmaz already visited the TRNC on July 10 and attended the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Türkiye and the TRNC for the delivery of natural gas through an undersea pipeline. The Turkish navy will also dispatch a submarine and two vessels to the TRNC for port visits, and they will open to public visits on Monday. Around the same time, a center jointly established by the Turkish Cypriot and Turkish governments to monitor shipping traffic in the eastern Mediterranean will be inaugurated in Gazimağusa (Famagusta).
Ahead of the events, the Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced that Turkish fighter jets carried out a training flight south of the island in international airspace, in an apparent message to the Greek Cypriot administration, which often contests international waters and airspace around the island.
On Saturday, a group of Greek Cypriots converged near the Metehan border crossing for a provocative protest against Türkiye and Turkish Cypriots. The group chanted slogans calling for Türkiye’s expulsion from the island, referring to the Turkish military deployed on the northern side. The group also voiced opposition to the idea of a federation with Turkish Cypriots. The same group also announced that it would hold a parade at the Ledra Palace border crossing on Monday. According to media reports, Greek Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides will also visit the Dherynia border crossing on Aug. 8 for an event to commemorate Tassos Isaac and Solomos Solomou, who died in riots in August 1996 near the border crossing. Isaac died during a confrontation between Greek and Turkish Cypriot protesters. His cousin, Solomou, died a few days later when Turkish troops shot him as he attempted to take down a Turkish flag in the buffer zone.
In the second half of the 20th century, Cyprus was the scene of Greek efforts to erase the Turkish Cypriot existence on the island. Fearing a Greek Cypriot plot to unite with Greece, which would ultimately put Turkish Cypriots under Greek Cypriot dominance, Türkiye launched the Cyprus Peace Operation in the summer of 1974. The operation led to a cease-fire two days later, but ongoing hostilities prompted Türkiye to launch the second stage of the operation on Aug. 14, 1974. The operations cost the lives of 498 Turkish soldiers and 786 Turkish Cypriot “mücahits,” members of paramilitary groups resisting Greek Cypriot attacks. The operation ensured a cessation of attacks by Greek Cypriots, and one year later, Turkish Cypriots declared the Turkish Federated State of Cyprus under the leadership of Rauf Denktaş. The state was renamed the TRNC in 1983.
The TRNC, however, faced major setbacks as it was not recognized globally and faced economic and political embargoes. It also sought to reconcile with Greek Cypriots, and the two sides agreed upon a series of talks in the early 2000s. Yet, after the Greek Cypriot administration was admitted to the European Union in 2004, efforts collapsed. The last round of concrete talks to end the division failed in 2017.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres will travel to Cyprus later this month to discuss the future of talks between the two sides. He will meet with representatives of both sides, U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said last Thursday, to underline a “strong demonstrated commitment to the Cyprus issue.”
On the anniversary of the operation, Ankara is expected to deliver stern messages regarding moves by Greek Cypriots and their backers to escalate tensions on the island, especially Greek Cypriots’ increasing military cooperation with Europe. France signaled earlier that it would boost its military presence on the island, while Greek Cypriots strengthened their alliance with Israel in defense and security, laying bare a new threat to Türkiye, which is concerned about Israel’s expansionist policies in the region. Türkiye was also angered by a recent report approved by the European Parliament that accused Turkish soldiers participating in the 1974 operation of sexual crimes against Greek Cypriots.
Speaking ahead of the anniversary, Turkish Cypriot Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu said they would never give up Türkiye’s right to intervene in Cyprus.
Drawing attention to the failure of negotiations on the Cyprus issue over the past 60 years, Ertuğruloğlu told Anadolu Agency (AA): “As our founding President Rauf Denktaş also stated, the Cyprus issue is a question of status. While the Greek Cypriot side is viewed as the ruler and sole owner of a Hellenic island, the Turkish Cypriot side seeks to be reduced to minority status. If you sit at the negotiating table without equality, you will leave without equality. The 60-year negotiation process has failed because of this approach.” Ertuğruloğlu pointed out that the United Nations’ granting the Greek Cypriot side the status of the “Republic of Cyprus” was what created the Cyprus issue, and recalled that the European Union made a similar mistake in 2004. “The U.N. made this mistake, and in 2004 the EU repeated the same mistake. Now they expect us to legalize their mistakes. You can wait a very long time,” Ertuğruloğlu said, stressing that the EU could not be impartial on the Cyprus issue.
Emphasizing that the EU would remain detached from reality as long as it approached the Cyprus issue as though there were a Turkish occupation on the island, Ertuğruloğlu said there could be no solution unless Turkish Cypriots and Greek Cypriots were granted equal status in Cyprus.
Sovereign and equal
Ertuğruloğlu explained that the foreign policy of the TRNC would not abandon its policy of two sovereign and equal states with equal international status, saying: “We have our own state, we have our motherland, and we have our army. Let no one come here hoping to deceive us.”
Minister Ertuğruloğlu also addressed the issue of the “guarantor powers” in Cyprus, saying: “Britain and Greece have not fulfilled their responsibilities as guarantors throughout history. The only country that has fulfilled its responsibility as a guarantor is the Republic of Türkiye.”
Underlining that the Cyprus issue stemmed from Greek Cypriot aggression that began in 1963 and the denial of the political equality of the two partners, Ertuğruloğlu said: “We will not give up Türkiye’s right to intervene in Cyprus. Türkiye’s right of unilateral intervention is indispensable for Turkish Cypriots. We will never give that up either.”
Ertuğruloğlu said the Cyprus issue began in 1963 and that approaches portraying Türkiye as having intervened in Cyprus on July 20, 1974, “for no reason,” without acknowledging this fact, were entirely incompatible with historical realities. “The Cyprus Peace Operation was not the beginning of the problem; in a sense, it was the solution,” he said.
Recalling that the intervention of the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) in Cyprus on July 20, 1974, saved the Turkish people on the island from genocide and enabled them to rebuild their lives, Ertuğruloğlu said that 52 years ago, the island was prevented from becoming a Hellenic island through the shoulder-to-shoulder struggle of Turkish soldiers and Turkish Cypriot fighters.
Pointing out that the Turkish army was a deterrent, rather than an aggressive force, Ertuğruloğlu stressed that Türkiye’s strength was evident in every field.
Ertuğruloğlu concluded by saying that they commemorated with mercy those who were martyred and with gratitude those who became veterans during the Cyprus Peace Operation, adding that as long as Türkiye exists, the Turkish Cypriot people will never again experience the painful days of the past.
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