Economy
Retail sales in Türkiye grow 10.4% in July
Türkiye’s retail sales expanded 10.4% on an annual basis in July, official data showed Friday.
That followed an 11.5% growth in June, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) said.
The July rate marked the slowest rate of growth since March 2025, when sales increased 10.3%.
Annual sales growth in non-food products moderated to 14.1% from 17%, while that in food, drinks, and tobacco improved slightly to 3.2% from 3%. Sales of automotive fuel were 8% higher than a year earlier versus a 1.3% gain a month ago.
Data showed that online retail grew 19.8% from last year, slower than the 23.7% jump in June.
On a monthly basis, retail sales edged higher by 0.2% in July, following a 0.5% rise in the prior month.
Separate official data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed that the country’s current account posted a $36 million surplus in July. That compared to a $1.8 billion surplus in the corresponding month last year.
The shortfall on goods trade widened to $5.6 billion from $4.6 billion a year ago, and the services deficit widened to $8.2 billion from $8 billion.
The primary income balance also showed a deficit of $2.6 billion, up from $1.5 billion. Meanwhile, the secondary income shortfall narrowed to $56 million from $153 million.
Oil prices slipped Friday but remained on track to end the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May and U.S. diesel prices hit a record high, as attacks along key Middle East shipping routes stoked prolonged supply disruption fears.
Brent crude futures fell $1.65, or 1.53%, to $105.98 a barrel by 0758 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.36, or 1.33%, to $101.12 a barrel.
The benchmarks pared all early gains to trade lower after the Financial Times reported that foreign ministers in the Middle East are trying to work out a temporary deal with Iran to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Both benchmarks rose more than 6% Thursday and were still trading more than 10% higher on a weekly basis.
“Some headlines of possible new talks in the Middle East are weighing moderately on oil prices today,” said UBS energy analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding: “I keep seeing near-term risks to the upside for oil prices, but we should expect ongoing high price volatility too.”
Iran said Wednesday it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz, after the U.S. hit five Iranian oil tankers. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would escalate its response to any further attacks.
Vessel transits at the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven Thursday from 11 the previous day, preliminary ship-tracking data showed Friday, well below the 10-day average of 15.
The Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global daily oil and liquefied natural gas supplies before the Iran war began in late February.
Iran-aligned Houthis seized control of Yemen’s port of Mocha Thursday, posing a further threat to Red Sea traffic, while Gulf traffic remains restricted through the Strait of Hormuz as tanker attacks in the region have intensified in recent days.
Attacks from Yemen on Saudi energy facilities marked an escalation beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and raised fears of prolonged disruptions in the broader region, analysts say.
Global oil supply and demand will fall further than previously thought this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, as a lack of progress in ending the Iran war delays the return of normal Middle East flows into 2027.
Supply disruptions lift fuel prices
Oil supply disruptions due to the Iran war, along with Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s refineries, pushed the U.S. national average diesel price past $6 a gallon for the first time ever Thursday, according to price tracker GasBuddy.
The national average of $6.05 is up from $5.85 last week and $3.70 this time last year, according to motor club AAA.
Higher diesel prices mean more expensive transportation for a long list of everyday goods. That’s because diesel is used for many freight and delivery networks. And some businesses have already passed along steeper costs to consumers.
“Refined products, particularly diesel, are feeling a one-two punch right now,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“As long as both the Gulf shipping constraints and Russian refining outages remain in play, diesel and other refined products are likely to show a higher upside tendency than the broader crude market,” he added.
Even if oil prices retreat as tensions ease, they are likely to remain at elevated levels for the rest of the year, adding to inflation uncertainties, said Yu Song, chief China economist at UBS Securities in a commentary.
U.S. President Donald Trump has not shown any signs of easing attacks on Iran. He warned the U.S. may hit Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain near its heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility, but said he thought the war would end immediately after the November midterm elections.
Elsewhere, China’s state planner said Friday it will raise retail price caps on petrol and diesel from September 12 by 260 yuan ($38.76) and 250 yuan per metric ton, respectively.
Turkish pilots have begun flight training as part of the country’s procurement of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets, according to the National Defense Ministry.
In a post on Turkish social media platform NSosyal, the ministry said Wednesday that the training process began in August under the agreement signed with the United Kingdom.
It said Turkish Air Force pilots successfully completed their terminology training and have begun flight training.
The agreement signed in late October last year covers 20 Eurofighter jets that Türkiye will buy from the U.K. The deal is worth about 8 billion pounds ($10.8 billion).
This March, the countries signed a technical and logistical agreement for the maintenance and operation of the warplanes.
Britain, a leading partner in the Eurofighter program, had been Türkiye’s most vocal supporter, and the agreement followed long negotiations to overcome a German objection to the sale.
Türkiye’s interest in the Typhoon was first reported in 2022, as Ankara grew frustrated with prolonged negotiations over the acquisition of F-16 fighter jets from the U.S.
Türkiye is scheduled to receive the first of the batch of Typhoons in 2030. The deal provides the option for the sale of more jets in the future.
In addition, Türkiye also plans to purchase 12 secondhand jets from Qatar and 12 others from Oman.
Meanwhile, Türkiye is developing its own fifth-generation fighter jet. Named Kaan, the stealth fighter is sought to replace the Air Force Command’s aging F-16 fleet, which is planned to be phased out starting in the 2030s.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Thursday that Ottawa remains prepared to strike a “fair” trade agreement with Washington, revealing he had spoken with U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days as economic tensions between the neighbors intensify.
The once ironclad trading partnership between the North American neighbors has sustained unprecedented blows since Trump returned to office last year.
Carney cut off trade talks last month, saying the U.S. offer was unacceptable, triggering angry responses from Trump, including punishing new tariffs and prompting Canadian retaliation.
But Carney said the pair remain in touch and that “Canada is always ready to strike a fair deal.”
“We believe there is a mutually beneficial deal for Canada and the United States,” the prime minister told reporters in the western city of Calgary, where he was hosting Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
“I speak regularly to the president, President Trump. I’ve spoken to him in recent days,” Carney said.
Since the talks broke down last month, Trump has resumed taunting Canada and mocking its leadership, posting a generated image on social media of him towering over Carney and calling him “governor,” with both dressed in hockey gear.
Carney has said he has no interest in escalating the conflict, but insists he will not agree to anything that doesn’t serve Canada’s economic interests.
A stark warning this week by an Anthropic researcher who quit and went public with his concerns about the technology escaping human control has prompted U.S. lawmakers to call for new rules to govern AI.
The reaction was broader than after previous statements from OpenAI and Anthropic staffers about safety concerns, drawing input from lawmakers who do not often forcefully engage in debates over how to govern AI.
The lawmakers’ statements came in response to concerns raised this week by Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon, who accused OpenAI and Anthropic of recklessness and of “playing with our lives” in the race to develop AI models capable of self-improvement.
Coxon said he was leaving the AI industry, and his allegations spread rapidly on the social media platform X, with Anthropic scientist Evan Hubinger later chiming in on X, saying Coxon was “correct.”
“We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans,” Hubinger wrote on X. “I personally think it is >10% within the next decade.”
OpenAI said Wednesday it was pushing for mandatory national AI safety requirements in the United States on concern the technology could accelerate its own development, after some of its own AI agents went rogue. Several such incidents in which AI models from developers accessed external systems during testing have prompted calls for tighter safety regulations.
Independent auditors
California Wednesday enacted the first state law setting rules for how independent auditors evaluate AI products. OpenAI executive Chris Lehane said the ChatGPT maker would support the bill, around the same time California Governor Gavin Newsom’s office released a statement saying he’d signed it into law.
A bipartisan group of six U.S. House lawmakers in July proposed legislation that would require developers of the most powerful AI models to submit them for independent security audits. The auditors would be accredited by the U.S. Department of Commerce, and the department would create a new position to oversee AI security, according to the bill.
“It is important to have space for oversight of these systems, including appropriately calibrated pre-deployment review and independent third-party audits,” said Alicia Solow-Niederman, a tech law professor at George Washington University.
Democrats this week led the calls for new AI rules, with a smaller number of Republicans joining them.
Growing bipartisan support
The list of Republicans includes Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who oversees a Senate committee with oversight of the U.S. Commerce Department, the agency with in-house AI safety researchers.
Cruz on the TV program “The View” pointed to legislation to regulate AI’s “catastrophic risks,” adding that he was working on a bill with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Democrat Amy Klobuchar.
Thune told Reuters in late July that he had been working on the legislation “for quite a while,” and did not elaborate on when it would be ready for public release.
Republican Representative Nathaniel Moran, who represents Texas, said in a post on X that “Congress cannot ignore the realities of AI.” Representative Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican from Florida, in a separate X post called on House Speaker Mike Johnson to convene a “special session on AI.” The House is out this week on recess, with plans to return next week.
Republican Senator Josh Hawley, who leads a Senate subcommittee responsible for disaster-management oversight, sent a letter Wednesday to OpenAI asking for details about its July disclosure that one of its AI agents breached its testing environment and hacked AI platform Hugging Face.
OpenAI and AI developer platform Hugging Face, which Nvidia is buying for nearly $13 billion, did not immediately respond to requests for comment about his inquiry. Several lawmakers in recent weeks have sent OpenAI similar requests for more information.
The list of Democrats who called for new AI rules this week includes Senator Patty Murray, the top Democrat on the committee responsible for allocating funding to federal agencies. Democratic senators who have emerged as possible 2028 presidential candidates also joined in, including Connecticut’s Chris Murphy and Arizona’s Mark Kelly.
“Washington needs to wake up and take this seriously,” Kelly posted on X, referring to the risks of AI technology.
Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut sent a separate letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, seeking answers about reports that OpenAI’s agents engaged in wider attempts to evade safeguards – including by using public websites to communicate and coordinate activity.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) promised Thursday to invest 40 billion euros ($46.5 billion) in Germany during a state visit by the leader of the Gulf country.
The money would partly pay for data centers with a capacity of up to one gigawatt, Berlin said, and an “Investment Council” would be set up to boost business links between the two nations.
The Gulf is a key source of capital for the AI boom as oil-rich states in the region seek to invest their energy wealth.
“The UAE invests for the long term and builds partnerships that endure,” UAE Industry Minister Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said.
“Germany has been an important strategic and economic partner for decades and the additional 40 billion euros intended investment reflects our ambition to invest in that relationship.”
Berlin had earlier rolled out the red carpet for President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who met Chancellor Friedrich Merz after earlier being received with military honors by President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
Security was tight for the visit, with Berlin cordoning off flag-lined streets and deploying large numbers of police.
The visit comes as the U.S. war against Iran has roiled the Gulf region, with President Donald Trump’s erratic diplomacy unsettling many midsize powers and leading them to diversify their strategic and economic partnerships.
Merz visited the Gulf region in February, shortly before the U.S.-Israeli war started against Iran. He said then that “we need such partnerships more than ever at a time when major powers are increasingly dominating politics.”
The UAE is Germany’s largest trading partner in the Gulf, with bilateral trade topping $15 billion last year, and many big German companies have a presence there including BMW, Siemens, ThyssenKrupp and rail operator Deutsche Bahn.
German and Emirati companies had signed a further 29 agreements with a total value of 9.4 billion euros during the visit, Berlin said.
The UAE, meanwhile, has made major investments in Germany, including in the chemical industry and offshore wind power.
During Merz’s visit in February, German energy giant RWE and Abu Dhabi’s national oil company ADNOC signed a memorandum of understanding on LNG imports over the next decade.
Gulf countries have also long bought defense equipment from Germany and have shown interest in startups that make drones to bolster NATO’s deterrence efforts against Russia.
Germany, the largest EU economy, supports talks toward a European Union free trade deal with the Emirates.
The European Central Bank (ECB) hiked interest rates for the second time this year on Thursday, meeting expectations as renewed tensions in the Middle East sent energy prices soaring again, threatening to push inflation higher.
The central bank for the 21 eurozone nations lifted its benchmark rate a quarter percentage point to 2.5%, its highest level since March last year.
It was the ECB’s second increase this year after policymakers lifted borrowing costs in June for the first time since 2023 in response to the energy shock triggered by the U.S. war with Iran.
“The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” the ECB said in a statement.
“The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth,” it added.
The central bank kept its inflation forecast for this year unchanged at 3% but raised it slightly for next year, to 2.5%.
It also slightly raised its growth forecasts for this year, to 0.9% from 0.8%, and for next year to 1.4% from 1.2%.
Fears of higher inflation, which hit 3.3% in August, above the ECB’s 2%, are being fanned by a surge in global energy prices.
The Brent international oil benchmark has climbed back above $100 a barrel this week, while natural gas prices, a key energy cost for Europe, reached their highest level in more than three years.
The surge is being driven by an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict as well as a flare-up in fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemeni Houthi rebels, dimming prospects of Gulf energy shipments returning to normal.
‘Inflation worsening’
For households in the euro area, another rate hike means pricier mortgages, consumer credit and other loans.
The central bank, meeting this time in Berlin on one of its regular trips away from its Frankfurt headquarters, has faced criticism in some quarters for trying to tackle an energy supply shock with tighter monetary policy.
Rate hikes aim to slow inflation by dampening demand from consumers and businesses, but critics say they can do little to tackle the root cause of the current burst in price rises, a shortage of energy.
And so far, there has been little sign of eurozone inflation seeping more broadly through to the economy via higher costs for food, goods or services.
Some economists say the ECB is worried about a repeat of 2022, when the central bank was criticized for raising rates too slowly in response to the inflation surge following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Still, some analysts back more tightening and say the current energy surge might prompt the ECB to hike further.
“The inflation outlook has worsened over the summer,” said Sylvain Broyer, chief economist for Europe, Middle East and Africa at S&P.
“Supply shocks are not only multiplying, but it is increasingly likely that demand is also adding to inflation,” he said.
“In that context, the ECB may need to move into restrictive territory and cannot rule out further rate hikes at this stage.”
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