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Demand in Türkiye’s key export markets strongest in over 2 years

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Demand conditions in key export markets for Turkish manufacturers have improved at their fastest pace since May 2024, supported by robust activity in the U.S. and ongoing recovery in the Middle East, a survey showed Tuesday.

The Türkiye Manufacturing Export Climate Index, compiled by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) and S&P Global, rose to 52.7 in August from 52.2 in July, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase.

Readings above 50 indicate improving business conditions in the main export destinations, while those below point to deterioration.

The index is calculated by weighting manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index indices from national PMI surveys according to each market’s share of Türkiye’s manufacturing exports.

Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said global economic growth appeared to be strengthening as the third quarter progressed, potentially supporting Turkish manufacturers’ overseas business volumes.

The strong improvement in demand conditions is driven by two key regions, including the U.S., where output growth reached its highest level in around 4.5 years, and the Middle East, where the recovery trend has continued following the outbreak of the Iran war.

Growth across European markets remained more moderate, said Harker, but an acceleration in the region in the coming months could create further opportunities for Turkish manufacturers.

U.S. output hits 52-month high

Manufacturing output in the United States, which accounts for about 6% of Türkiye’s manufacturing export market, rose strongly in August, with the pace of growth reaching its highest level in 52 months.

Economic activity across Europe generally expanded at a more moderate pace. Germany and Britain recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in activity, with growth accelerating from July although remaining modest.

The Netherlands and Spain recorded marked increases in economic activity in August, while Italy saw strong expansion, with its growth rate reaching its highest level since November 2025.

Romania recorded its fastest increase in output in 27 months.

Among major export markets covered by the survey, France and Poland were the only countries where economic activity weakened. Output declines in both countries accelerated from July.

Middle East recovery

Economic activity generally improved across the Middle East in August.

Output growth in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reached its highest level in six months, while Saudi Arabia recorded its strongest growth in seven months. Both countries posted output increases among the strongest globally.

Kuwait also recorded its strongest growth since before the war in the region began.

Output continued to decline in Qatar and Egypt, while economic activity in Lebanon was broadly unchanged.

Among all countries covered by the survey, Zambia recorded the steepest contraction in output in August, as economic activity slowed sharply during the election period.

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Economy

Türkiye secures $75M from AIIB for advanced manufacturing plant

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The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) announced recently it would be providing up to $75 million in financing to establish an advanced green manufacturing facility in northwestern Türkiye, further expanding its support and portfolio in the country.

The AIIB made another investment as part of ongoing efforts to develop Türkiye’s advanced technology and green manufacturing capacity.

The advanced plant planned to be built in the northwestern province of Kırklareli will be established by Chinese manufacturer Great Rich Technology (GRT), marking the firm’s first production base outside China.

The facility will be co-financed by the World Bank Group’s International Finance Corporation (IFC), and it will produce energy-efficient window films, paint protection films, and specialized materials to absorb carbon dioxide and volatile organic compounds.

The investment aims to reduce industrial emissions, expand the availability of low-emission advanced materials in emerging markets, and help solidify Türkiye’s position as a manufacturing hub bridging Europe, Asia and other neighboring markets.

Ajay Bushan Pandey, vice president of the AIIB, told Anadolu Agency (AA) in remarks published on Tuesday that the bank made its second-largest investment among all its members in Türkiye over the past decade.

“$9 billion and about 40 projects we have invested in, and then there are many more projects in the pipeline,” he said.

“We have our second-largest investment in Türkiye, (and) the only country that is first is India, … but if you look at it per capita-wise, I think Türkiye will be the highest.”

Pandey stated that investments in Türkiye are carried out via public- and private-sector entities and local financial institutions, with the AIIB having a wide range of established partnerships with other development banks in the country.

He noted that Türkiye remains committed to contributing to infrastructure development in the public and private sectors, as there is massive potential to implement more projects and secure additional financing, while the bank provides funding for projects directly or organizes financing through collaboration with development banks or financial institutions within the country.

Pandey suggested that the AIIB’s current portfolio is more concentrated in energy, transportation, waste management, urban development and climate resilience, while the bank has also approved a geothermal project for Türkiye.

“If you look at COP31 (or the U.N. Climate Change Conference), these are the themes: sustainable cities, electrification and zero waste – all those are already in our portfolio, and these are the portfolios where we would like to do more,” he said.

He noted that energy security has become a key area in the current geopolitical situation, with “every country looking for energy security.”

“And if you are talking about energy security, then renewable energy and electrification are a very, very integral part of your energy security policy, and this is precisely what Türkiye is currently focusing on,” he said.

Pandey stated that the bank aims to boost its portfolio in Türkiye, as “there is no limitation or target” when it comes to implementing projects in the country.

“If we are able to identify good projects along with the Turkish government, we can finance them; therefore, we do not have any such target or limitation – let’s say if we are able to identify 10 projects, we will try to finance all 10 over the next few years,” he said.

He noted that seeking solutions to climate issues is key to developing infrastructure.

“We have seen that there is a huge gap between what Asian infrastructure will require over the next few years and how much money is available, that is why the role of MDBs (multilateral development banks) can become very important,” he said.

“Because MDBs can actually help address the gap through their own balance sheet, or they can mobilize enough private capital through financial instruments to bridge that gap – MDBs can also actually help in identifying projects, structuring the projects, and making them bankable so that they are able to get financed from various sources.”

“The MDBs, or private capital, can flow in, or instruments like guarantees and credit enhancements,” he added.

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Türkiye to transfer defense tech to civilian sectors under new program

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Türkiye plans to encourage the transfer of technologies and capabilities developed by its defense industry to civilian sectors as part of efforts to reduce dependence on foreign suppliers in critical technologies, according to its updated economic road map.

Under the 2027-2029 Medium-Term Program (MTP), the government will also encourage the use of domestic defense-industry capabilities in technology-intensive civilian procurement, with the aim of raising domestic production and supporting higher-value exports.

The plan, unveiled Sunday, seeks to strengthen economic security against global shocks, geopolitical tensions and competitive pressures by improving supply security in strategic sectors including energy, agriculture, food, health care, technology and defense.

Since the early 2000s, Türkiye has injected billions of dollars to transform from a nation heavily reliant on equipment from abroad to one that is a major exporter and where homegrown systems now meet almost all of its defense industry needs.

For much of the past two decades, Ankara has expressed frustration over its Western allies’ failure to provide adequate defense systems against missile threats despite Türkiye being a major NATO member.

Türkiye is currently the world’s 11th-largest defense exporter. Its shipments rose nearly 50% in 2025 to a record of more than $10 billion. Annualized sales reached $11.2 billion as of this July.

The new program envisages the development of domestic production and innovation capacity for critical products, technologies and services, while supply chains are planned to be diversified and strategic partnerships with reliable partners strengthened.

The government also aims to improve Türkiye’s resilience to multiple shocks stemming from demographic change, natural disasters, geopolitical developments and global supply disruptions.

Semiconductor, AI capacity

Domestic research and development, production and innovation capabilities will be expanded in strategic sectors including defense, health care, semiconductors and artificial intelligence.

Technologies developed in these fields will be supported in their transfer to the broader economy and civilian applications.

The interaction between defense technologies and civilian applications will be increased, while public procurement of technology-intensive civilian products will be encouraged to draw on the capabilities of Türkiye’s domestic defense industry.

The government expects this approach to increase domestic content in these sectors and support higher-value-added exports.

The wider adoption of agile manufacturing methods will also expand the potential applications of defense-industry products and increase the domestic contribution rate.

Action plans will be prepared to support technology development and domestic production in critical areas needed to strengthen supply security in manufacturing, energy, agriculture, health care and transport.

Health care seen as key area

Health care is expected to be one of the main civilian sectors to benefit from technologies developed by Türkiye’s defense industry.

The government will support R&D and product-development activities for vaccines, medicines, medical devices, diagnostic kits, biotechnology products and AI-based health care technologies needed by the national health care system.

The initiatives are intended to strengthen domestic production capacity in the health care sector.

Türkiye also plans to establish modern facilities capable of producing semiconductor chips used in identity documents, passports and industrial applications.

Capabilities in semiconductor R&D, design, production and commercialization will be developed, while processes will be established to prepare data held by public institutions in standardized formats suitable for use in AI applications.

Partnerships with friendly countries

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz said the government also planned to establish product-based platforms with friendly countries for joint development and marketing.

“We want to transfer the technologies and capabilities we have acquired in the defense industry to civilian industries,” Yılmaz said.

He said public procurement would play an important role in this process and stressed the need to develop other critical technologies domestically to strengthen Türkiye’s economic and technological security.

“We are not looking at this only from Türkiye’s perspective. We need to move forward by producing through joint platforms with friendly and brotherly countries,” Yılmaz said.

Yılmaz cited the multinational industrial structure behind the U.S.-led F-35 fighter jet program as an example, saying Türkiye would seek to establish similar platforms with friendly countries on a product-by-product basis, both for development and marketing.

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China’s exports surge 25% in August as its trade surplus widens

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Chinese exports surged 25% in August from a year earlier, driven by the strong demand for autos and high-tech products as Beijing’s record trade surplus expanded further, customs data showed on Tuesday.

The data was broadly in line with what economists had expected and comes just ahead of a planned meeting between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump.

That’s set for late September, though Beijing has not yet confirmed the exact date for the visit.

Trade is expected to be among the key topics of discussion between Trump and Xi when the two leaders meet.

China’s global imports, meanwhile, climbed 28.2% in August from a year earlier, up from July’s 27.5% rise. Exports grew 23.9% year-over-year in July. The trade surplus expanded in August to $119.1 billion from $112.5 billion in July.

Policymakers in the U.S. and elsewhere have raised concerns over China’s ballooning trade surplus, which surged to a record $1.2 trillion for the whole of last year. Beijing has said that it is not seeking to maximize its trade surplus.

In August, China’s exports to the U.S. totaled $42.5 billion, up 34.4% year-over-year, in part due to a base effect after higher U.S. tariffs caused exports to fall last year.

U.S. exports to China last month were $13.3 billion, leaving a trade surplus in China’s favor of about $29.2 billion, according to Chinese data.

Exports to the EU rose 6.6%, while those to Southeast Asia and Latin America rose 30.2% and 17.5%, respectively.

Exports have consistently outpaced imports and are “set to lead to a new record-high trade surplus this year,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at the Dutch bank ING.

China has weathered disruptions from the Iran war better than many other countries. It also has been exporting more to Southeast Asia, Latin America and Africa, shielding it from the impact of higher U.S. tariffs.

Exports of autos in August grew 43% year-over-year while semiconductor exports surged 129.8%, the customs data show.

“China is very competitive in its tech goods exports,” said Chi Lo, a senior market strategist for Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas Asset Management. In recent months, rising exports of electric vehicles, industrial machinery and semiconductors have helped fuel China’s robust shipments globally.

“China has moved aggressively up the value chain and has become a major player in AI infrastructure and industrial automation,” he said.

At home, China is still struggling to boost its economy as consumption and investment remained sluggish following a yearslong real estate sector downturn.

On Sunday, China said it was injecting around $54 billion into state banks and insurers to help lift its economy.

China’s continued reliance on exports to fuel growth prompted 19 members of the G20 large economies to agree to address such economic imbalances at a recent meeting of top financial officials in Asheville, North Carolina. China was the lone dissenting G20 member after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described China’s trade surplus as a barrier to global economic growth.

The strategic stalemate between China and the U.S. will likely remain, said Lo of BNP Paribas. “Both sides hold each other hostage in some strategic products, with the U.S. withholding high-end tech goods from being sold to China and China withholding rare-earth exports to the U.S.,” he said.

China and the EU are also set to meet for ministerial-level trade talks in the fall, as the EU struggles to reduce its roughly 1 billion euros-a-day trade deficit with China.

The EU implemented measures in July to protect its steel industry and has limited tax-exempt imports of Chinese e-commerce small parcels.

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France urges EU ban on social media for under-15s

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French President Emmanuel Macron urged the European Commission to back ​a European Union-wide ban on social media for children under 15 after Paris failed to enact its ⁠own legislation, his office ⁠said Tuesday.

In a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen dated Aug. 29, Macron said it had become ​urgent ⁠to introduce a bloc-wide ban through new EU legislation after France’s Constitutional Council struck down a national bill this summer before it was due to take effect in September.

“I believe it has now become essential to go further and, through a new European legislative text, harmonize a ban on access to social media platforms for children under the age of 15, in order to protect all children across the Union,” Macron wrote.

Following Australia’s landmark social media ban ⁠for ⁠children adopted last year, several European countries are considering their own curbs amid growing concern over the impact of social media on young people’s mental health and safety. But some countries, especially in Scandinavia, believe it is best left for parents to decide.

Macron, now in his final year as president, has taken up the cause as a priority before the next French presidential election ⁠in 2027, and has been lobbying other EU governments to back restrictions.

He said France would separately rework the legislation struck down by the Constitutional Council, ​though political fragmentation in parliament and difficult budget negotiations could complicate efforts to ​pass a new law.

Von der Leyen said in July that the European Union would move to limit young children’s ⁠access ‌to ‌social media across the 27-member bloc, citing proposals from ⁠two experts recommending a tiered system.

Under ‌that approach, children under 13 would only be allowed limited, supervised access, with ​restrictions eased gradually as they ⁠get older.

Macron is seeking a tougher approach, ⁠pushing for a blanket ban on social media access until the ⁠age of 15, ​ahead of von der Leyen’s flagship State of the Union speech to the EU Parliament later this month.

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Economy

Iran’s Hormuz leverage in question as US sanctions begin to bite

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As the conflict that rattled global markets and pushed the Gulf region to the brink of a ​wider war leaves behind the six-month mark, the tide may be slowly turning against Iran as Washington unleashes an unprecedented economic offensive to achieve what military force could not.

After years of surviving sanctions, Tehran is now confronting one of the harshest squeezes in the Islamic Republic’s history, according to ⁠Iranian insiders and regional sources.

A U.S. naval blockade and tougher sanctions ⁠are curbing oil exports, restricting access to foreign currency and exposing growing strains in the economy.

The campaign has led U.S. and regional officials to wager that mounting economic pressure can force Tehran to allow free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which used to carry about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies prior to the conflict.

Their ​bet rests on a simple calculation: Iran is suffering more economic damage than it is inflicting.

Efforts to choke ​off oil ⁠exports have cut state revenues, while attempts to disrupt shipping through Hormuz have not triggered the global economic shock Tehran hoped would force Washington to compromise. Energy markets have adjusted and alternative supplies have continued to flow.

“The balance of power has tilted against Iran a bit,” said Iranian analyst Arash Azizi.

Iran is losing some of the leverage it had over the Strait of Hormuz because it has been unable to close it fully, he said, adding that the U.S. naval blockade was “really hitting Iran.”

Azizi said Tehran had expected disruption in the strait to trigger a major shock to the global economy and drive Washington back to the negotiating table.

“It hasn’t happened, really,” he said.

Other countries had adapted, exposing limits to Iran’s ability to inflict economic pain on the region and beyond.

Whether the pressure will force concessions remains unclear, the regional sources said. Tehran has failed to impose the costs it hoped would break Washington’s resolve but has shown little sign of abandoning demands for sanctions relief, access to frozen assets and recognition of its security role in Hormuz.

Still, a new formula for resolving the standoff is now under discussion between mediators and Iran, the sources said.

Can Tehran outlast the squeeze?

Three senior Iranian ⁠sources acknowledged ⁠that Washington’s campaign is becoming increasingly difficult to withstand.

The latest measures have sharply restricted Tehran’s ability to access foreign currency, import goods and tap global financing networks that have helped keep the economy afloat.

Iranian leaders fear a worsening economy, marked by surging prices, weaker trade and pressure on household incomes, could reignite nationwide unrest that has repeatedly challenged the country.

Shortages of key imports, including fuel and wheat, are becoming an increasing concern, officials said.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the strategy as a “one-two punch” combining the blockade with “the toughest sanctions in history.”

“It is going to work in Iran, and we are going to collapse this regime,” he told CNBC.

For some U.S., Israeli and regional officials, such strains strengthen hopes that economic pressure could eventually carry political consequences inside Iran by triggering unrest, widening rifts within the leadership and weakening its grip on power.

Others remain sceptical that economic and military coercion will produce a political rupture, pointing to decades of failed efforts to destabilize it and ⁠Tehran’s willingness to suppress dissent. They argue Iran’s rulers may again prove more resilient than their adversaries expect.

The resilience test

Dennis Ross, a former U.S. negotiator, said Washington may be interpreting Iran’s economic distress as evidence of strategic success when the reality is more complicated. Tehran remains determined to demonstrate it can control Hormuz, but appears to be calibrating its use of force while keeping further escalation in reserve.

The Revolutionary ​Guards may believe Iran can absorb the economic pain and outlast the pressure rather than compromise, Ross said.

“The Iranians have consistently surprised us in terms of their resiliency,” he added, ​saying he doubted economic and military pressure alone would force a retreat. Hardliners, he said, may believe they can endure and ultimately secure what they want.

Resilience may depend as much on public tolerance as Tehran’s ability to absorb economic hardship, said Burcu Özçelik, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.

“Of course, ⁠the economic squeeze raises ‌the risk of public ‌unrest, but for now, a wartime mentality appears to have a significant hold over the population,” said Özçelik.

“Foreign military intervention, ⁠civilian casualties and the perception of a wider civilization confrontation with a U.S.-led order are sustaining a degree ‌of ‘Iran-first’ patriotic support, tolerance or simply patience with the regime.”

The result is a more stubborn impasse than Washington may have anticipated.

Economic pressure is deepening the pain, but Tehran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards may see endurance, backed by the ​threat of escalation, as leverage rather than a reason ⁠to concede.

The key question is not whether Iran is hurting, but whether it is hurting enough to compromise before either side slips ⁠toward another confrontation, the regional sources said.

Ross said the clearest path to a deal may lie in the dispute over shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz. ⁠

Iran could abandon any demand for a ​toll while retaining the right to charge for legitimate navigational, security or environmental services, he said.

Such an arrangement could give both sides a claim to victory, allowing Tehran to step back without appearing to capitulate.

“If you could announce that the Strait were reopened,” Ross said, “I think Trump would do a deal.”



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Africa’s richest man inches closer to continent’s largest IPO

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Africa’s richest man is expected to launch next week what he foresees to be the continent’s largest initial public offering (IPO), seeking to raise $1.6 billion from his Nigerian oil refinery while giving ordinary people a chance to buy in.

Here are some key things to know about the share sale and Aliko Dangote’s refinery, which operates on the outskirts of Lagos.

What is the IPO about?

The IPO, which goes live Sept. 14, aims to attract up to 10 million shareholders across Africa.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals will offer investors the chance to buy as few as 10 shares at 525 naira each, potentially raising 2.15 trillion naira ($1.6 billion).

Speaking at an event in Lagos on Monday to sign off on the paperwork, Dangote said raising money was only part of a bigger plan.

His broader goal is to give ordinary Nigerians and Africans a chance to own a stake in what would be the continent’s biggest industrial project.

“It’s not really about raising funds. It’s about getting our own Africans generally to be part and parcel of this refinery,” Dangote said.

He wants the investment to become a long-term asset for ordinary people, he said, comparing his ambitions to U.S. giant Amazon, whose early shareholders saw the value of their investments grow dramatically.

“We are creating big corporations where we don’t want to be the only people enjoying. We want to spread this enjoyment to the rest of Africa,” he said.

How big will the IPO be?

Dangote estimates the offering, which closes Oct. 13, will be the biggest IPO in African history.

Located outside Nigeria’s economic capital Lagos, the refinery began operations in 2024.

It is one of the world’s largest single-train refineries and has become a major part of Dangote’s business empire, which spans cement, sugar, and fertilizer production.

Part of the money raised will fund a further expansion of the refinery as Dangote seeks to increase its capacity and strengthen its position as a major supplier of refined petroleum products. Nigeria is Africa’s leading crude producer.

With the planned expansion, the refinery would become the world’s largest by 2028.

Dangote has also announced plans for the business to expand its footprint into Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Namibia.

What does it mean for ordinary investors?

The IPO is tailored to encourage participation by small investors, including people on lower incomes.

David Bird, CEO of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals, told Agence France-Presse (AFP) the company wanted retail investors to play a central role in the offering.

“It’s very much an IPO for the people,” Bird said.

“We want to drive retail participation so that all Nigerians, no matter their income or status, can be a part of the wealth creation that will come from this immense industrial project and business that is not only currently operating at scale, but is growing.”

The refinery is “the world’s most modern, youngest, most energy-efficient, most automated, most data-rich refinery,” said Bird.

The company is also expanding in other African countries, including tank farms in Namibia and a pipeline that will supply underserved inland markets.

“This is truly a Pan-African energy platform,” Bird said.

Analyst Bismark Rewane told AFP that instead of spending money on sports betting on overseas football clubs, young people could find investing in the Dangote offer “far more rewarding.”

“I see this as democratization of the economy as against democratization of politics because so far democratization of politics has not been a fantastic success,” said Rewane.

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