Economy
Turkish economic program needs ‘fine-tuning,’ review: ITO head
Türkiye’s economic management has created a successful framework and risk management, but the program involves a dynamic process and needs a “fine-tuning” and review, the head of a leading business association said, according to remarks published on Sunday.
“We will not set aside the fight against inflation, but with fine-tuning, we need to review the exchange rate policy, export regime, and import regime within the program. I believe we must design and implement this integrated process very quickly,” said Şekib Avdagiç, the chairperson of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO).
Speaking to journalists, Avdagiç said that thanks to the successful work of the economic management over more than three years, Türkiye has moved from a problematic foreign exchange reserve situation to a much more reasonable level, and that an important goal has been achieved in terms of external funding access.
However, he noted that with the developments triggered by the war, it would be appropriate to evaluate the situation from a broader perspective.
“As the business world, we have tried to contribute as much as we can to achieving the targets of the economic program. For this, the business community has also paid a significant cost,” Anadolu Agency (AA) quoted him as saying.
Avdagiç’s remarks on the economic program, which was put in place in the middle of 2023, marking a shift to more conventional macroeconomic policies to curb soaring inflation, come amid some calls to pause the fight against inflation amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Earlier this week, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek sought to dismiss these calls, arguing that sustainable and high growth can only be achieved through low inflation.
“This is a very myopic approach,” he said. “The path to permanent and high growth is through the process of low inflation. If inflation falls, growth will multiply.”
Türkiye’s annual inflation dropped to 30.87% in March from 31.53% in February, compared to the peak of around 85% in October 2022 and around 65% in 2023.
Responding to a question about the central bank’s interest rate decision, Avdagiç went on to say that: “I do not think it would be very correct, realistic, or result-oriented to look at the issue merely as a simple interest rate increase or a decision to keep it unchanged.”
“I believe we are entering a period where economic processes must be reviewed holistically in terms of the sustainability of the business world,” he argued.
“The economic management has created a successful framework and risk management. It is not possible to ignore our gains,” he maintained.
“At this stage, however, we think that, together with the conditions brought by the war and taking into account the expectations of the business world, some updates are needed in the policy that has so far been financial- and reserve-heavy,” he added.
“Of course, the program involves a dynamic process. We will not set aside the fight against inflation, but with a fine-tuning, we need to review the exchange rate policy, export regime, and import regime within the program. I believe we must design and implement this integrated process very quickly.”
The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran, which began two months ago, has led to a notable ascent in global energy prices, while also threatening supply chains of raw materials, including fertilizers, which are used for crops.
The conflict has added pressure on countries relying on imports, but in the face of disruptions, Ankara has touted the success of its diversification strategy and relatively low dependence on Gulf countries for oil and gas supplies.
In response to uncertainties, the Turkish central bank has, in both of its last policy meetings, kept interest rates unchanged at 37%.
As Turkish capital Ankara gears up to host the NATO summit, which will take place on July 7-8, the accommodation sector has also begun intensive preparations for the event, according to a report on Sunday.
Ahead of the major event, high-end hotels in the city are accelerating their reservation and operational preparation processes.
During the summit, NATO-standard security protocols will be implemented in hotels for heads of state and senior delegations. The modernization of security systems, the creation of special protocol areas, and staff training form the main pillars of these preparations.
The summit is expected to generate significant added value for Ankara’s economy not only through accommodation but also through logistics, food and beverage, and service sectors. In order to meet the rising demand created by the event, hotels are planning additional recruitment, while placing particular emphasis on training staff in foreign languages and protocol management.
Gökhan Esengil, the chairperson of the regional executive board of the Tourism Hotel Managers Association, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that the process related to the summit is proceeding differently from typical tourism activity.
Explaining that most reservations are made through corporate block bookings rather than individual guests, Esengil said that as the summit dates approach, occupancy rates in our high-end hotels in Ankara has “reached around 90%.”
Also, emphasizing that security measures are being raised to the highest level due to the nature of the event, Esengil elaborated: “In such events, our hotels cease to be mere accommodation facilities and turn into controlled diplomatic areas. At entrances and exits, multi-layered security measures are implemented, and some of our hotels are fully or partially allocated to delegations. Coordination with state security units has reached the highest level.”
Furthermore, noting that Ankara hotels already have experience in hosting bureaucratic guests and therefore provide services with qualified staff, Esengil said that special training programs for the summit are also ongoing.
He added that staff are being trained especially in protocol rules, crisis management, foreign languages, and service standards, and that the use of external service providers is also being increased to support operations.
He also suggested that the economic impact of the summit will not be limited to the accommodation sector.
“Transportation, car rental, restaurants, event companies, and technical service providers will all directly benefit from this activity,” he said.
“The high spending capacity of incoming guests will provide a significant short-term boost to the city’s economy. This summit will strengthen Ankara’s brand value by proving its capacity to host international events.”
A flurry of decisions by major global central banks is expected to mark this week in global markets as policymakers try to navigate rising pressures on domestic economies following the start of the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran at the end of February.
The U.S. central bank, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are all due to gather at their respective monetary policy meetings this week, with expectations largely tilted to the prospect of all of them remaining wary of risks and keeping rates on hold, and thus restraining from hikes at the moment.
The Federal Reserve (Fed), which meets first, is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged as energy prices stay high and supply chains disrupted due to war in the Middle East.
The Fed’s two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, could be the last one for Jerome Powell at the helm of the independent institution.
But it takes place against a tricky backdrop.
Powell’s successor has faced a bumpy road to confirmation, while policymakers battle competing pressures as steeper fuel prices drive inflation and job market worries linger.
Fed officials are set to keep rates steady at a range between 3.50% and 3.75%, extending their pause since the start of the year.
“We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
Oil and gasoline prices remain elevated even if they have peaked, meaning “there’s certainly an energy shock that’s still impacting both consumers and businesses,” he said.
The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and low unemployment. It tends to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or lower them to spur growth, meaning that current conditions pull officials in different directions.
Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long expects Powell to be “non-committal” on the path of rates, as the full impact from the war on Iran remains unknown.
The oil price hikes came after U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from Feb. 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy transit.
Containing inflation
Fed officials will likely focus more on containing inflation than the job market at this meeting, with the war entering its ninth week.
The strait is also a key passage for fertilizers, and disruptions threaten to hit food production.
Already, U.S. consumer inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March at 3.3% as energy costs skyrocketed.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who earlier backed lower rates to support employment, indicated this month that a prolonged conflict could make it hard for the central bank to cut rates this year.
If there were high inflation and a weak labor market, one would have to balance risks on both sides.
This “may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” he told an Alabama event.
KPMG’s Kim said solid hiring recently “gives the Fed some cushion” to temporarily focus more on prices. Analysts will monitor if the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.
‘Critical juncture’
The Fed is also taking its next steps under intense political scrutiny.
President Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish for lower interest rates, and regularly slammed Powell for not cutting them aggressively.
Beyond rhetoric, Trump has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether he can fire her.
Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of new Fed chairperson, Kevin Warsh, has faced a bumpy road to confirmation.
Republican senator Thom Tillis on the Senate Banking Committee vowed to block Fed appointments until a Justice Department probe into the Fed and Powell is resolved, setting up a potential impasse on the panel Warsh needs to clear.
But the Department of Justice (DOJ) said Friday it would drop the investigation linked to renovation costs overruns, potentially paving the way for Warsh’s ascendance.
Asked by journalists on Saturday about the DOJ’s move, Trump said he still wants to look into the cost of the Federal Reserve building renovations, which he has claimed is too high.
“I tell you, I want to find out. I have an obligation to find out,” he said.
Warsh has repeatedly pledged to remain independent if confirmed.
“We’re at a critical juncture for the Fed,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told AFP.
“It may be that under Warsh, we’re going to see less Fed transparency, less Fed communication than we had in the past,” he said, referring to Warsh’s confirmation hearing testimony.
Powell’s term as chair expires May 15, and he originally intended to stay on the Fed’s board of governors until the probe on him is completed. All eyes will turn on him, and if he shares any plans at his scheduled press briefing on Wednesday.
ECB, BoE likely to hold too
Meanwhile, according to recent polls, both the ECB and BoE, are also expected to keep their policy rates unchanged on Thursday despite risks to inflation in the U.K. and slowing manufacturing in the eurozone.
Bank of England policymakers will “almost certainly” hold interest rates at 3.75% at their meeting, despite the Iran war pushing up the cost of living, economists have said.
However, experts have said a future interest rate increase could still be a possibility if firms and households continue to face inflationary pressures.
The Bank of England’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote on whether to maintain, increase or decrease its base interest rate on April 30. The bank will also publish its first full monetary policy report and set of economic forecasts since the Middle East conflict began in late February.
This week, a raft of economic data has shown that the conflict has helped to drive inflation higher.
Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, a three-month high, on the back of accelerating fuel prices.
The price of motor fuels jumped by 8.7% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since June 2022, as disruption to oil production and transportation drove diesel and petrol prices higher.
Despite these figures, economists broadly expect the bank’s rate-setters to maintain the current interest rate.
Oxford Economics chief U.K. economist Andrew Goodwin said: “We expect the MPC to keep bank rate unchanged at 3.75%, with most committee members seemingly keen to hold policy at its current restrictive level as they gather more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy.”
The European Central Bank is also expected to hold its deposit rate on April 30 but hike it in June, according to just over half of economists polled by Reuters.
Economists, however, failed to agree on what would follow June’s quarter-point lift, largely seen as an insurance move because the extent of any second-round inflationary effects arising from higher fuel prices was still unclear.
ECB policymakers have sounded more determined than their peers to contain inflation but have played down the likelihood of an immediate rate rise, citing insufficient evidence that energy costs, which they can’t control, are spilling into broader price rises.
The central bank is still haunted by its slow reaction to a rapid inflation surge in 2022, while also wary of repeating its 2011 mistake, when it raised rates twice in four months as commodity prices climbed, making a eurozone debt crisis worse.
The European Central Bank must be cautious when setting interest rates, given the great uncertainty associated with the war in Iran, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said on Tuesday.
All but one of 85 economists in the April 17 to 23 Reuters poll predicted the ECB would hold its deposit rate at 2% next week.
Just over half, or 44, forecast a June increase to 2.25%, while 40 expected no change. Until late last month, most economists had expected rates to stay unchanged this year.
“The ECB will try to avoid a repeat of 2011. They need to have some clarity that whenever they hike, they’re not going to have to undo that quickly. And that’s a reason to move in June rather than in April,” Ruben Segura-Cayuela, head of the European economics research at Bank of America, said.
“There’s still a scenario in which the ECB looks through the shock … The risk is the activity will react a bit more negatively than we are expecting. That might create additional incentives to delay hikes. And once you delay hikes, at some point, you might decide not to hike at all.”
Hailing Türkiye as the “island of stability” in the region amid recent conflicts, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently presented a series of new economic measures aimed at boosting investment, attracting global capital, and strengthening the country’s position as a regional financial and startup hub.
At an event on Friday, Erdoğan introduced a wide-ranging set of tax incentives aimed at strengthening Türkiye’s investment environment, including certain tax exemptions on foreign income, lowering taxes for manufacturing exporters and those targeting institutions operating at the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC).
“By successfully managing one of the biggest security crises of recent years, Türkiye has once again proven that it is an island of stability in its region. This war, which is reshaping the global economic order and value chains, has turned our country into a cornerstone of global economic stability,” the president said.
“The old definitions describing Türkiye merely as a bridge between East-West and North-South have proven insufficient. It is now clear that our country is not just a bridge or energy corridor, but an indispensable hub for energy and trade routes in the region,” he added.
He also suggested that legal, administrative, financial and institutional steps are being taken to boost competitiveness, ensure sustainable high growth and strengthen the investment environment.
He said that his government will soon submit a comprehensive legislative package to Parliament aimed at boosting investment, competitiveness and growth, including a cut in the manufacturing exporters’ tax to 9%.
Among others, Erdoğan said new regulations would encourage citizens and companies to bring their overseas assets into the Turkish economy.
“We are implementing arrangements that will enable assets held abroad by our citizens and companies to be brought into our economy. In this context, we are allowing money, gold, and securities held abroad to be transferred to Türkiye within a certain period at a low tax rate,” he said.
Erdoğan also announced expanded tax incentives for institutions operating at the IFC, including full tax exemptions on certain international trade activities.
“With the regulations we will introduce, we are expanding tax advantages provided to institutions operating at the Istanbul Financial Center. We are increasing the current 50% tax deduction rate on earnings from transit trade and intermediary activities in overseas goods trading to 100%,” he said, noting that such earnings will be exempt from corporate tax.
He added that similar incentives will be extended beyond the finance center, with 95% of earnings from transit trade activities outside the center exempt from taxation.
Erdoğan also said Türkiye will also offer major incentives to attract global companies’ regional headquarters, including long-term tax advantages and income exemptions for qualified employees.
Streamlining procedures
He highlighted the introduction of a system to streamline investment processes, enabling all procedures, from company establishment to work permits and tax transactions, to be handled through a single, digitalized platform, dubbed “one-stop office.”
On exports, the president announced further tax cuts to support exporters, particularly manufacturers.
Erdoğan also unveiled incentives aimed at attracting individuals living abroad and said individuals who have lived abroad and have not been Turkish taxpayers for the past three years will be exempt from taxes on foreign income for 20 years if they relocate to Türkiye.
“We will only tax their income, if any, for the country. In Türkiye, we will apply a 1% inheritance tax for these individuals,” he stated.
He also announced the launch of the first phase of the “Terminal Istanbul Project” to strengthen the country’s entrepreneurial infrastructure.
He added that project-based guarantees will be introduced for large-scale investments to enhance predictability and minimize the impact of future tax changes.
‘Resilience to absorb shocks’
Stressing Türkiye’s economic resilience, Erdoğan said the country is now better equipped to withstand global shocks.
“Türkiye’s economy has gained the strength, capacity, and resilience to absorb much larger shocks compared to the past,” he said.
Erdoğan also said that the detailed framework of reforms will soon be shared with the business community and investors before being submitted to Parliament.
“Türkiye’s path and future are open,” he said. “Despite global economic storms, our economy now has the strength and resilience to absorb major shocks.”
He highlighted that Türkiye’s economy has grown from $238 billion to $1.6 trillion over the past 23 years and emphasized the country’s rising global standing.
“Türkiye is no longer the old Türkiye. It is stronger in its economy, defense industry, infrastructure and diplomacy. Today, there is a powerful and influential Türkiye whose star continues to rise.”
Türkiye has exported nearly $316.85 million worth of sunflower oil in the first quarter of the year, marking an increase of over 17% compared to the same period a year ago, according to a report on Sunday.
According to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM), Türkiye exported 195,995 tons of sunflower oil to 93 countries and free zones in the January-March period of 2026.
The sector generated approximately $316.85 million in revenue from these exports. In the same period last year, exports totaled 183,125 tons worth $270.396 million, meaning that in the first quarter of this year, export value increased by 17.2% and volume by 7%.
From the Southeastern Anatolia Region, which accounts for 61.7% of Türkiye’s sunflower oil exports, about $195.65 million worth of exports were made, according to the data.
During this period, the largest destination for Türkiye’s sunflower oil exports was Djibouti with $126.094 million, followed by Sudan with $33.798 million and Syria with $20.416 million.
Celal Kadooğlu, the president of the Southeastern Anatolia Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds and Products Exporters’ Association, said that reaching 18.3% share in global refined sunflower oil trade clearly demonstrates Türkiye’s international strength in food trade.
Commenting on the sector’s performance for the rest of the year, Kadooğlu suggested that global constraints in raw material supply and the war conditions surrounding the region “will be decisive for performance in the remaining period.”
“In particular, Russia’s extension of export taxes until the end of 2026 creates pressure on the supply chain, but we are able to overcome this challenge through our strong stock management, timely interventions by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), and the flexibility of our high-tech facilities,” he noted.
“Through the Inward Processing Regime, we process the seeds we obtain by adding value and bring them to global markets under the ‘Turkish oil’ brand. I see our ability to surpass raw material giants such as Ukraine and Russia in refined product exports not only as a logistical advantage, but also as a result of years of technological accumulation. I believe this dynamism will also enable us to reach our 25% market share target within the next 10 years,” he added.
The spike in energy prices since the start of the war launched by the U.S. and Israel against Iran is squeezing polyester suppliers and garment makers across key Asian producers such as India and Bangladesh, threatening to raise costs for fast-fashion retailers like Zara and H&M.
Filatex, one of India’s biggest polyester yarn producers, is paying nearly 30% more for the petroleum-derived feedstocks – purified terephthalic acid (PTA) and monoethylene glycol (MEG) – that it needs to make yarn, as Chinese suppliers raise prices and Middle East supply is disrupted, managing director Madhu Sudhan Bhageria told Reuters.
The pain is being felt across the clothing supply chain, which is dominated by Asia.
Avichal Arya, CEO of Bindal Silk Mills, which supplies dyed and printed polyester fabrics to retailers including H&M, Zara-owner Inditex, Target, Walmart and IKEA, said the energy crisis had “drastically” pushed up the cost of chemicals and dyes.
Adding to his woes, Arya said a shortage of cooking gas due to the war has driven many migrant workers to leave Surat, a textile hub in India’s western state of Gujarat.
“We are not able to actually meet the demands of the global orders very fruitfully these days,” he said.
Made from oil derivatives, polyester dominates the textile industry, accounting for 59% of global fiber production and used in everything from running shorts to dresses. It is directly exposed to the squeeze on refined petroleum products caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Fast fashion costs could rise
The pressure could eventually move downstream to retailers that rely on Asia’s polyester-heavy supply chains, though retailers are shielded from immediate pain by forward buying.
British retailer Primark said its spring/summer stock and a big part of its autumn/winter stock would not be affected.
“If we were buying energy-related raw materials today, we would be seeing significant inflation, it’s just that we’re not,” George Weston, CEO of parent company Associated British Foods, told Reuters.
“It may be that when we do have to go back into the market, the prices have reduced, but we don’t know.”
An industry source said H&M expects price increases from Bangladeshi suppliers in the coming weeks but plans to absorb them.
In a statement, H&M said it does not see major disruptions to production in Bangladesh and has not observed “any noticeable number of requests from suppliers to adjust orders in connection with energy costs.”
Zara-owner Inditex declined to comment on its polyester supply.
Target, Walmart, and IKEA did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Retailers like Zara and H&M have shifted to using mostly recycled polyester – made from plastic bottle waste – which could cushion some of the oil-driven cost pressure for them. But globally, recycled polyester still accounts for just 12% of polyester production.
Polyester shock
In Surat, half of the 200 industrial looms at Radheshyam Textile that weave polyester have sat silent since the conflict started in late February.
“Our daily production was 10,000 metres per day before the war started, but it has fallen to 3,500 to 4,000 metres per day,” owner Kaushik Dudhat told Reuters.
He has stopped buying new polyester yarn, saying the steep price increases would force him to raise his own prices by around 15% – a hike his customers, mainly clothing traders, would not accept.
Rising costs have caused textile dyeing and printing factories in Surat to shut for two days a week, up from one previously, said Kailash Hakim, president of the Federation of Surat Textile Traders Association. “If the situation persists, raw material shortages will start taking place and factories will need to shut down,” he warned.
Data from Wood Mackenzie shows the price of polyester staple fibre in India jumped from 100 rupees per kilogramme at end-February to 126.5 rupees a month later.
It eased slightly after the Indian government slashed import tariffs on petrochemical raw materials, but remained at 120 rupees as of April 9.
Prices in China, the world’s biggest polyester producer, have also jumped.
Demand destruction
In Bangladesh, even though factories mostly make cotton-based clothing, they face higher prices for the polyester sewing thread that feeds their sewing machines, and higher logistics costs from raised retail fuel prices.
In an April 5 letter reviewed by Reuters, thread producer Coats Bangladesh – a unit of U.K.-listed Coats – announced a 15.5% price increase effective April 15, citing the “rapid escalation in oil-derived feedstock costs” and higher transportation expenses.
“Buyers are becoming more cautious and carefully calculating risks before placing orders, which could affect order volumes,” said Mohammad Hatem, president of the Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers and Exporters Association.
“If this goes on for one more month, forget it – we will have lower clothing production and what we call demand destruction, because retailers will have to raise their prices and consumers will cut their purchases,” said Bruna Angel, principal analyst for fibres at Wood Mackenzie.
Sneakers next
Petrochemical-derived materials such as ethylene-vinyl acetate (EVA) are also widely used in sneakers, and U.S. retailers have raised the alarm.
“There’s broad-based impact across the board no matter where you source your shoes from,” said Matt Priest, president of Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, which identified 25 petrochemical-based components used in shoes – from synthetic rubber outsoles to polyurethane foam and adhesives – in a recent report.
Higher costs could push retail prices up and make it harder for brands to forecast demand.
“Materials related to oil do have an impact on product costs,” a Nike spokesperson said.
Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair announced on Friday it was closing its base at Berlin’s international airport, withdrawing its seven passenger jets stationed in the German capital and halving its flight schedule over alleged plans to raise charges.
The Berlin base will be closed on Oct. 24 this year, the airline said. Flights to the city will continue, but with aircraft based outside Germany.
Ryanair’s passenger numbers at Berlin-Brandenburg Airport (BER) are set to fall by around half in 2027, from 4.5 million to 2.2 million.
Eddie Wilson, head of Ryanair in Germany, said the decision was in response to a looming increase in Berlin airport fees, and also took aim at Germany’s “stupid aviation tax regime.”
The airline cited the airport’s plans to increase charges again between 2027 and 2029 by 10%, adding that fees have already risen by 50% since the coronavirus pandemic.
The airport’s operator rejected the claim and said it was surprised by the announcement, with both sides currently in negotiations. “No such increase in airport charges is planned,” a spokesman emphasized.
“German aviation is broken,” Wilson said.
“There is no strategy to cut aviation taxes or high airport fees – despite Ryanair warning that Germany would lose traffic, connectivity, jobs and trade,” Wilson argued.
The Ryanair aircraft will be moved to other European Union countries “that have abolished aviation taxes like Sweden, Slovakia, Albania and Italy”, the company said.
Flight crew have been informed of the decision to close the Berlin base and “can secure alternative positions elsewhere in the Ryanair network across Europe,” the low-cost carrier added.
Wilson said Ryanair had cut all service to three other German airports since 2019 – Dresden, Leipzig and Dortmund – and had already relocated aircraft previously based in Frankfurt, Duesseldorf and Stuttgart.
Ryanair and other airlines have lobbied Germany to slash taxes on the aviation industry.
Despite being Germany’s largest city, Berlin lags well behind several other airports in the country for total passenger traffic, and the city has struggled to attract carriers.
A brand-new Berlin Brandenburg Airport Willy Brandt (BER), which opened in 2020 after years of embarrassing delays and cost overruns, became a laughing stock during its 14-year construction and was seen by many as a symbol of the city’s dysfunction.
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