Economy
Türkiye sees Mideast war impact manageable if limited to 1-2 months
The economic impact of the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict could remain manageable for Türkiye if it lasts no longer than one to two months, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Monday, but warned of broader risks if the war drags on.
The war is in its third week, with no end in sight. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed off, with U.S. allies rebuffing U.S. President Donald Trump’s request for help to reopen the critical waterway, raising energy prices and fears of inflation.
Şimşek said the conflict is unfolding in one of the world’s most critical energy and trade corridors, which is why it could have a major impact not only on regional economies but also on global markets.
“The key issue is how long the war will last and whether it will spread further,” he told an interview with broadcaster Akit TV, noting that the region accounts for nearly one-fifth of global oil supply.
Energy shock fuels inflation risks
Şimşek said disruptions to supply chains and surging energy prices are already being felt, raising concerns about global inflation.
Brent crude oil prices have risen more than 40% compared to pre-war levels, while natural gas prices in Europe have climbed over 56% and jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, he said.
He highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that any disruption there would have far-reaching consequences for global trade and energy flows.
“There are serious problems both in the Red Sea and Hormuz, affecting transport between Asia and Europe,” Şimşek said, adding that a prolonged conflict could intensify inflationary pressures and disrupt global trade.
Financial conditions tighten
Şimşek said global risk appetite has weakened as investors shift toward safer assets, tightening financial conditions.
“There is a clear move away from risk. Capital is flowing from emerging markets to what are perceived as safer destinations,” he said.
If the conflict persists, the global economy could face a combination of higher inflation, tighter financial conditions and slower growth, alongside risks of recession or even stagflation, he added.
For Türkiye, Şimşek said the economic impact would be limited if the conflict is short-lived.
“If it lasts one to two months, we think the effects will be manageable, but if it continues longer, it could have negative impacts on the current account deficit and inflation,” he said.
Measures to shield markets and consumers
Şimşek stressed that authorities have not underestimated the risks and are actively managing the situation.
The war-related market volatility prompted Şimşek to convene the Financial Stability Committee, which said it would take all necessary steps to ensure market functioning and contain the fallout.
Şimşek said Türkiye has taken proactive steps to limit the spillover effects on financial markets.
Despite being in the region, Türkiye’s stock market has fallen by around 5.5% since the conflict began, compared with declines of over 10% in countries such as Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa, he noted.
However, he acknowledged that bond yields and risk premiums have risen due to heightened uncertainty.
Fuel price system not sustainable if high oil prices last
To cushion the impact of rising energy prices, the government has reintroduced the sliding scale system, which adjusts the special consumption tax (ÖTV) on fuel products and prevents higher oil prices from being fully passed through to consumers.
Şimşek said without the mechanism, diesel prices in Ankara would have reached TL 83.10 ($1.88) per liter, compared with the current level of TL 67.10. Gasoline prices would have been TL 71.11 instead of TL 62.30.
But Şimşek said the system is not sustainable if high oil prices persist, as it is a burden on the budget. He said the government gave up a significant tax income with the scale system to limit the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and consumers’ purchasing power.
“We wanted to limit (the high oil price) impact on our citizens. We believe this is temporary. Of course, if it becomes permanent, it’s not sustainable … We implemented this system assuming it would be temporary,” Şişek said.
External balances and trade at risk
Şimşek said the conflict could weigh on Türkiye’s external balances, particularly through higher energy import costs.
“I am somewhat concerned about the current account deficit, as oil prices directly increase it, but I believe it will remain manageable,” he said.
Türkiye’s exports to the region, including Iran, total around $30 billion annually, while imports stand at about $19 billion. The country also receives around 10 million tourists from the region, generating roughly $10 billion in tourism revenue.
Any disruption to trade routes or regional demand could therefore have broader economic implications, he noted.
Inflation outlook remains intact
Despite the shock, Şimşek said he expects inflation to continue declining this year, although uncertainty remains over the pace of disinflation.
“We are facing a serious shock due to the war, but assuming it is temporary, inflation will continue to fall this year,” he said.
He reiterated the government’s goal of bringing inflation below 20% this year but said it was too early to assess whether that target would be met under current conditions.
Annual inflation slowed from over 40% at the beginning of last year to just over 30% this January. But a rise to 31.5% last month signaled a slowdown in disinflation.
Encouraged by the downward trend, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) has slashed interest rates by 900 basis points since mid-2025 to 37%.
But it halted its easing cycle last week due to fallout from the Iran war that it said could impact inflation.
The bank said it was closely watching the effects of “geopolitical developments” on the inflation outlook, and it was ready to take more liquidity steps if needed to support markets.
The CBRT also left unchanged its band of overnight lending and borrowing rates at 40% and 35.5%, respectively. It responded to the volatility amid the conflict by taking liquidity measures that lifted overnight rates to around 40%, up 300 basis points from pre-war levels.
Şimşek added that last year’s economic program had proven its resilience despite multiple shocks, including domestic developments, global trade tensions and adverse weather conditions affecting agriculture.
Budget and reserves remain supportive
He also pointed to improvements in fiscal and external buffers, saying the budget deficit has continued to narrow and Türkiye’s reserves have increased.
Still, Şimşek warned that the conflict represents a major external shock with potential implications for the whole economy.
“The war is currently a significant source of uncertainty. We are facing a major external shock that could have serious potential impacts on the current account deficit, inflation, growth and the budget,” said the minister.
“Nevertheless, I am speaking on the assumption that the shock will be temporary.”
German companies’ investments in the U.S. have dropped to a three-year low in the first half of 2026, as Trump administration policies continue to raise uncertainty and pose risk for trade between the key trans-Atlantic partners, data shows.
First-half direct investments plunged by nearly two-thirds year-over-year to 4.3 billion euros ($5 billion), the lowest level since 2023, according to calculations by the German Economic Institute (IW), seen by Reuters.
Compared with the same period in 2024, that represents a drop of nearly 80%, said the report, which is based on data from Germany’s central bank.
“This continues the downward trend that has been evident since the start of Donald Trump’s second term in January 2025,” IW researcher Samina Sultan told Reuters.
Since returning to office, Trump has threatened most of the United States’ international trading partners with import tariffs in an attempt to secure concessions favourable to Washington.
In a bid to avoid heavy duties on its exports to the U.S., for example, the European Union agreed a deal last year that included a $600 billion investment pledge.
In the five years before the COVID-19 pandemic, first-half investments by German companies in the U.S. averaged 15.8 billion euros, the data showed, almost four times the 2026 level.
That said, the 2020 to 2023 period was shaped by the “exceptional circumstance” of the pandemic, Sultan said, with some years marked by net investment outflows.
The researchers also examined the composition of investment flows over 2025 and found that both direct-investment loans and reinvested earnings were exceptionally high, while equity capital in the narrower sense – the balance of new investments and liquidations – remained below average.
“Companies that are already active in the United States are therefore continuing to reinvest the profits they earn there in the country,” Sultan said.
“This suggests that the U.S. remains an attractive market overall.”
However, companies were hesitant to commit new capital, she said.
For more than a century, cafes in the Italian northern city of Padua have grown accustomed in welcoming customers for an early evening drink, or aperitivo, encouraging them to sit outside and socialize just at the time before dinner.
As Europe bakes under its fifth heat wave of the year, the traditional 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. slot has all but disappeared as people seek air-conditioning indoors, cutting sales for many hospitality businesses.
Adding to the pressure, extreme heat often falls outside traditional business interruption insurance, exposing a growing protection gap for companies across Europe.
Moody’s has published estimates that last summer’s European heat waves cost 43 billion euros ($50 billion) in lost economic output while generating only about 500 million euros of insured payouts.
In Padua, aperitivo often now starts later, “which means that the outdoor seating areas, the terraces, the spaces outside … are left unused and empty,” said Federica Luni, president of hospitality association APPE Padova.
According to a survey of about 600 hospitality businesses in the city and its province, more than 80% reported turnover declines of around 20% during the recent heatwave.
“A 20% decline wipes out your margin,” Luni said.
Toll on economy
Heat waves are increasingly taking a toll on Europe’s economy, reducing productivity, curbing consumer spending and raising operating costs.
For insurers, such losses can be difficult to cover because they often stem from indirect operational disruption rather than property damage.
“Heat in itself is not a traditionally insured risk,” said Swenja Surminski, managing director for climate and sustainability at Marsh.
“Extreme heat rarely causes catastrophic physical damage the way a flood or a storm does, but the financial operational disruption that it triggers can be just as severe.”
A 2023 survey of 9,000 small and medium-sized firms for Europe’s insurance regulator found 28% held business interruption cover as part of their property insurance, while 17% had non-damage business interruption protection covering events such as strike action.
The protection gap is widening as the economic costs of extreme heat mount. Trains are delayed, agricultural yields fall and factory cooling costs rise, while workers often struggle to maintain productivity during prolonged spells of extreme temperatures.
Companies that flagged a hit from hot weather or warned about its potential future impact when reporting second-quarter earnings included Swedish shop-fitting provider ITAB Group, Italian cement producer Buzzi and French payments firm Worldline.
Compound risk
Heat often acts as a compound risk, interacting with drought, wildfire and water shortages rather than triggering a single identifiable loss event. That makes it harder to model and insure than some other natural catastrophes.
The challenge is particularly acute in Europe, the fastest-warming continent. Reuters Climate Monitor showed the average temperature across Western Europe was nearly 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1961 to 1990 average on Aug. 11.
Data compiled by environmental disclosure platform CDP showed 35% of companies it tracks identified heatwaves as a risk driver, led by businesses in manufacturing, services, infrastructure and food-related sectors.
While insurance may cover some physical losses linked to events such as power outages, businesses often say compensation does little to offset lost sales and reduced customer activity.
“The real loss is the revenue you don’t make and the business activity that never takes place because of the outage,” Luni said.
To bridge the gap, insurers are increasingly exploring parametric products that pay out automatically when temperatures exceed predefined thresholds. Unlike traditional indemnity-based insurance, such policies do not require a lengthy loss-adjustment process.
The European market for parametric insurance is expected to reach $7.93 billion by 2031, according to a report by KBV Research, with compound annual growth of 9.5% between 2025 and 2032.
Such policies are already being used in agriculture, where heat can reduce crop yields or livestock productivity, and industry experts see scope for expansion into sectors including transport and workforce protection.
“Parametric insurance can really play a role,” said Aidan Kerr, head of U.K. and Ireland public sector solutions at Swiss Re.
Even so, many companies will need to focus primarily on adapting their operations to withstand more frequent periods of extreme heat through measures such as investing in cooling technologies, redesigning workplaces and stress-testing supply chains, Marsh’s Surminski said.
“Take action to avoid the losses rather than address them once they’ve occurred.”
Over nearly a quarter-century, Türkiye’s defense sector has transformed from foreign-dependent licensed manufacturing into a high-capacity industry driven by high domestic content and robust global exports.
The transformation coincides with the 25-year period of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which marked its anniversary on Friday.
Türkiye now develops a broad range of indigenous platforms and systems, invests in critical technologies and exports high-value-added products across the globe.
In 2002, Türkiye had only 56 defense firms and some 62 projects underway. Those figures today stand at more than 4,500 and 1,400, respectively.
The total project volume skyrocketed from $5.5 billion in 2002 to over $100 billion today.
Defense and aerospace exports surged from just $248 million to $10.05 billion in 2025.
Shipments hit $5.79 billion in the first seven months of 2026 and totaled $11.2 billion on an annualized basis as of July.
Türkiye is currently the world’s 11th-largest defense exporter and is close to breaking into the ranks of the top 10.
For much of the past two decades, Ankara has expressed frustration over its Western allies’ failure to provide adequate defense systems against missile threats despite Türkiye being a major NATO member.
That prompted it to invest billions of dollars to transform from a nation heavily reliant on equipment from abroad to one that is a major exporter and where homegrown systems now meet almost all of its defense industry needs.
Its research and development spending increased from $49 million in 2002 to over $3.5 billion, while the domestically produced content ratio increased from 20% to more than 85%.
Shift to domestic development
The Turkish defense sector provides direct employment to over 100,000 people, and the average age of a defense industry worker is 34.
Turkish defense was dominated by off-the-shelf purchases, licensed production and technology transfer in the early 2000s. This trend gradually shifted to promote domestic development, homegrown original design and the localization of critical subsystems.
The sector’s scope of operations expanded as project scales grew, with a broad range of products and technologies emerging, such as armored vehicles, conventional platforms, unmanned systems, warships, jet aircraft, air defense systems, radar and electronic warfare systems, smart munitions, engines, space technology and advanced electronics.
The Turkish defense and aerospace industry made around $1.1 billion in revenue in 2002, while this figure exceeded $20 billion by 2026.
Unmanned aerial vehicles
Unmanned aerial vehicles have been one of the most significant areas of transformation over the past 25 years.
Defense firm Baykar’s Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle became one of the most symbolic breakthroughs in Turkish defense.
The combat drones earned worldwide fame after proving their capabilities in several conflicts, including Syria, Libya, Karabakh and Ukraine.
Their success eventually helped Türkiye become one of the world’s top drone exporters.
Baykar’s multirole Bayraktar Akıncı platform further improved Türkiye’s drone capabilities with its high payload capacity, long range, advanced sensors and heavy munitions integration.
Baykar’s Bayraktar Kızılelma carried Türkiye’s drone expertise into the unmanned fighter jet area by combining high speed, air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities and the ability to operate from short-runway ships.
Turkish Aerospace Industries’ Anka and Aksungur unmanned combat aerial vehicles contributed to the development of high-altitude, long-endurance and strategic reconnaissance and surveillance capabilities of Turkish drones by integrating satellite communications, homegrown electro-optical systems, munitions and engines.
Growing aviation industry
The Turkish Aerospace Industries’ under-development twin-engine stealth fighter Kaan and the Hürjet jet trainer also marked major milestones in Türkiye’s manned aviation.
The Kaan is one of the most technologically ambitious programs in Turkish aviation with its low observability, advanced avionics, mission computer, radar and system integration.
The Hürjet was developed to provide a homegrown trainer platform to advance the country’s capability to develop manned military aircraft.
The Turkish Aerospace Industries T129 Atak helicopter’s product and system integration experience translated into the homegrown T625 Gökbey helicopter, marking a giant leap in rotary-wing technologies.
State-of-the-art naval defense
Beyond aerial systems, Türkiye’s national ship project, called MILGEM, laid the foundation for domestic naval platform design, ranging from corvettes to frigates.
Advancements in combat management systems, sensors and weapon integration became key to ensuring independence and export capacity in naval defense.
The TF-2000 anti-air warfare guided-missile destroyer extended the Turkish Navy’s air defense capabilities to the high seas through its long-range air defense and advanced radar and weapon-sensor integration.
The unique naval engineering capabilities Türkiye gained through the MILGEM project enabled the development of the country’s domestic submarine project, called MILDEN, to develop underwater platforms.
The partnership between the TCG Anadolu drone carrier assault ship and the Bayraktar TB3 combat drone introduced a new sea-air operations concept to the Turkish defense industry, integrating amphibious capabilities with a UAV capable of operating from short runways.
Missile defense systems
Meanwhile, Türkiye’s air defense architecture also grew with Roketsan and Aselsan’s Hisar and Siper missile systems, which contributed to a layered air defense architecture combining integrated sensors, command-and-control systems and missile systems within a single domestic architecture against various threats at low, medium and high altitudes.
Türkiye’s multilayered air defense system, Steel Dome, has been developed by bringing together radars, electro-optical sensors, electronic warfare components, command-and-control infrastructure and air defense weapons of various ranges under a common network.
Roketsan’s Som, Atmaca and Kara Atmaca developed long-range precision strike capabilities for air, sea and land platforms, while the same firm’s Tayfun missile introduced the ability to engage long-range and precision land targets, boosting Türkiye’s strategic deterrence.
Turkish defense also evolved in surface vehicles, with the main battle tank Altay establishing a broad industrial ecosystem around critical technologies, such as armor, active protection, fire control and power packs, while also highlighting the strategic importance of reducing foreign dependence on engines and power packs.
Aselsan’s Koral electronic warfare system and other homegrown radar systems enhanced the effectiveness of air, land and sea platforms in modern warfare through radar detection, electronic jamming, early warning and sensor superiority.
Indigenous technologies
Meanwhile, the PD170, TF6000 and KTJ engine projects brought power system developments for UAV engines, turbofans, cruise missile engines and more.
These projects have been key to ensuring platform independence in defense through indigenous engine technologies.
At the same time, Turkish defense transformed its export model from direct product sales to a broader approach that includes training, maintenance and sustainment, system integration, co-production and technology cooperation.
Turkish defense products are exported to some 185 countries, and around 230 different product types are actively used worldwide.
The sector’s primary goal this year is to further independence efforts in critical technologies, establish high-volume mass production capacity and permanently expand its share in the global market.
Business partnerships should complement the strong political relations between Türkiye and Pakistan, Khawaja Khurram Naeem, the Consul General of Pakistan in Istanbul, said on Thursday, also pointing to the potential of the Pakistani economy and a push to encourage investment and growth.
“We strongly believe that government-to-government cooperation must be complemented by the robust business-to-business engagement,” Naeem said in an address to the “Global Excellence Award Ceremony,” organized by the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) in Istanbul.
Starting his speech, the consul general noted that the close relationship between Türkiye and Pakistan, two brotherly countries, is “based on a shared history, mutual trust, and a common vision for economic prosperity.”
He added that the business forum provided an important opportunity to further strengthen commercial and investment ties between the two nations.
Pointing to positive developments in Pakistan’s economy, Naeem said the Islamabad government has taken important steps to encourage investment and create a more business-friendly environment.
“The government’s commitment to gradually reducing the corporate tax rate to a more competitive level demonstrates the determination to encourage investment and economic growth,” he added.
He also went on to highlight the potential for regional cooperation involving Türkiye, Pakistan and Central Asia amid the changing geopolitical landscape.
Naeem said Pakistan has particularly significant potential in the textile and ready-made garment sectors, while also noting that the country has extensive production capacity and a young population.
“Sustainable economic growth can only be achieved through active cooperation between the private sectors of both countries, reciprocal visits, and the establishment of long-term partnerships,” he said.
Naeem invited business representatives to explore new opportunities, forge new connections, and develop mutually beneficial partnerships through the forum.
In his speech, Naeem also thanked all the institutions that contributed to organizing the event, particularly the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), and other Turkish partners, and expressed hope that economic activities between Pakistan and Türkiye would continue to grow stronger.
At the event, the business leaders recalled that the current bilateral trade volume between Türkiye and Pakistan of around $1.2 billion is relatively modest and urged for more steps, including more B2B meetings and reciprocal visits, to elevate the cooperation.
South Korean automaker Hyundai on Friday started mass production of its new all-electric IONIQ 3 model at a factory in Türkiye’s northwestern Kocaeli province.
It makes Hyundai the first foreign automaker to manufacture battery-powered passenger cars in Türkiye and also marks the company’s first EV production in Europe.
The launch represents a significant step in Türkiye’s strategy to position itself as a regional production hub for electric vehicles and battery technologies while attracting new investments in next-generation mobility.
Industry and Technology Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır said the investment demonstrates growing international confidence in Türkiye’s manufacturing capabilities and industrial ecosystem.
“The investment is one of the most concrete outcomes of our vision to make Türkiye one of the leading countries in next-generation mobility technologies,” Kacır told the start-of-production ceremony at Hyundai Motor Türkiye’s Izmit plant.
In June, Hyundai also announced it would build a new 55 million euros ($63.8 million) battery assembly facility that it says will strengthen the investment in the production of the IONIQ 3.
The facility will assemble battery packs using automated systems in cooperation with Hyundai Mobis.
“An international automaker is producing a fully electric passenger vehicle in our country for the first time,” said Kacır.
“The accompanying battery investment demonstrates that Türkiye has crossed an important threshold in its goal of becoming a global production hub for electric vehicles and battery technologies.”
Hyundai is investing approximately 250 million euros in the project and will initially produce 30,000 IONIQ 3 vehicles annually at the Izmit facility.
The plant has operated in Türkiye for nearly three decades and is Hyundai’s first and longest-running overseas manufacturing facility outside South Korea.
It has produced 13 different models and about 3.3 million vehicles since operations began in 1997. The Izmit plant currently produces the i20 and Bayon models.
Government investment incentives have helped expand the factory’s annual production capacity from 50,000 vehicles in 2002 to 230,000 today.
Hyundai Motor Group plans to invest $90 billion globally by 2030, launching 21 fully electric and 13 hybrid models.
Building on Türkiye’s automotive industry
Kacır said the automotive industry has become one of the main pillars of Turkish manufacturing, increasing annual production from 357,000 vehicles to 1.5 million over the past 23 years.
Automotive exports have risen to $41.5 billion from $4.8 billion in 2002.
The sector directly employs around 60,000 workers in vehicle manufacturing and nearly 250,000 in the supplier industry.
Kacır said the government views the global shift toward electrification, connected vehicles and autonomous driving technologies as an opportunity to strengthen Türkiye’s industrial competitiveness.
He reiterated that the domestically developed Togg electric vehicle project was conceived not only as a car brand but as the foundation of a broader mobility ecosystem encompassing battery technologies, software, power electronics and charging infrastructure.
“The success of our new mobility vision depends on expanding the transformation initiated by Togg across the entire automotive industry,” he said.
“It is therefore extremely important that global manufacturers already producing in Türkiye direct their next-generation mobility investments to our country.”
EV market expanding rapidly
Türkiye’s domestic electric vehicle market has also grown rapidly.
Kacır said more than 450,000 electric vehicles are currently on Turkish roads, while fully electric models account for more than 17% of local vehicle sales this year.
The government expects the number of electric vehicles in circulation to exceed 1.5 million by 2030.
Kacır said Türkiye offers international investors significant advantages, including a large domestic market of 86 million people, a $1.6 trillion economy, an extensive supplier network and logistics infrastructure, as well as preferential access to around one billion consumers through the customs union with the European Union and free trade agreements.
Kacır said Hyundai’s investment is expected to encourage additional next-generation mobility projects and attract further foreign investment, particularly from South Korean companies.
“We hope Hyundai’s investment decision will serve as an example for other South Korean companies,” he said.
“Türkiye will continue to support all investors who produce, develop technology, create qualified employment and strengthen our position in global value chains.”
Inflation expectations among market participants in Türkiye rose slightly for the end of the year but dropped for the 12-month horizon, a survey showed on Friday.
According to the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) survey for August, year-end consumer price inflation is expected to reach 29.43%, up from 29.21% in the previous survey.
The 12-month inflation forecast declined to 23.69% from 23.95%, indicating that participants continue to expect disinflation over the coming year despite a slightly higher projection for the end of 2026.
Forecasts for inflation in 24 months time, however, edged up to 18.03% from 17.83%, the survey showed.
Türkiye’s annual consumer price inflation eased to 31.75% in July 2026, down from 32.11% in June.
On Thursday, the CBRT adjusted its end-2026 inflation forecast upward to 28% from 26% mainly due to energy and food price pressures. But it left its interim target unchanged at 24%.
The bank also kept its interim inflation targets for end-2027 and end-2028 at 15% and 9%, respectively.
Friday’s survey also showed a weaker outlook for the Turkish lira. Participants raised their year-end U.S. dollar/lira forecast to 51.66 from 51.55, while the 12-month exchange rate expectation increased to 57.43 from 56.69.
Growth expectations were broadly unchanged. Respondents maintained their 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.1%, while trimming their projection for the following year to 4% from 4.1%.
The survey continued to point to expectations of gradual monetary easing by the central bank.
Participants expect the CBRT to keep its policy rate at 37% at its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. They see the one-week repo rate declining to 36.13% at the following meeting and 35.25% at the third meeting.
Respondents now expect the policy rate to stand at 29.59% in 12 months time, slightly higher than in the previous survey.
Higher oil prices that have weighed on inflation expectations have prompted the CBRT to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged for four straight months.
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