Economy
US inflation rose less than feared in September, delayed data shows
Inflation in the United States remained elevated in September as gas prices jumped while the cost of rents cooled, according to official data published nine days late on Friday, painting a mixed picture of the expenses consumers are facing in a murky economy where growth appears steady but hiring slow.
Consumer prices increased 3% last month from a year earlier, the Labor Department said, the highest since January and up from 2.9% in August. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories core prices also rose 3%, down from 3.1% in the previous month.
On a monthly basis, price increases slowed: They rose 0.3% in September, down from 0.4% the previous month. Core inflation also cooled to 0.2%, from 0.3% in August.
The figures show that inflation continues to rise more slowly than many economists expected when President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs in April. Some of those duties were later reduced as part of trade deals, while many companies have only passed on part of the tariff cost to consumers out of concern that doing so would reduce sales. Businesses may shift more costs to consumers in the coming months if the duties appear permanent.
The smaller increase will come as a bit of relief to Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, who have signaled that they will cut their key interest rate at their meeting next week for the second time this year. Yet inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target, underscoring the high stakes of the Fed’s moves.
“Put simply, while inflation doesn’t appear to be accelerating, neither is it moving back toward target,” said Eric Winograd, chief U.S. economist at asset manager AllianceBernstein. “That will keep the Fed cautious rather than aggressive.”
The report on the consumer price index was issued more than a week late because of the government shutdown, now in its fourth week. The White House on Friday said the shutdown will likely prevent the publication of next month’s inflation report.
The Trump administration recalled some Labor Department employees to produce the September figures because they are used to set the annual cost-of-living adjustment for roughly 70 million Social Security recipients. On Friday, that increase was set at 2.8% for 2026, equal to about $56 per month.
Gas prices jumped 4.1% just in September from the previous month, a major driver of inflation last month. Grocery prices rose 0.3%, less than in August, and are 2.7% higher than a year ago.
Trump’s duties are pushing up the prices of many goods: Furniture costs jumped 0.9% last month and are 3.8% more expensive than a year ago. Appliance costs rose 0.8% just in September, though they are up only 1.3% from a year earlier. Clothing prices increased 0.7% last month and shoes 0.9%, though neither have risen that much from last year.
The issues of affordability and the cost of necessities are gaining in political importance.
Concerns over the costs of rent and groceries have played a key role in the mayoral race in New York City. And Trump, who has acknowledged that the spike in grocery prices under President Joe Biden helped him win the 2024 election, has been considering importing Argentine beef to reduce record-high U.S. beef prices, angering U.S. cattle ranchers.
The cost of ground beef has jumped to $6.32 a pound, a record, in part because of tariffs on imports from countries such as Brazil, which faces a 50% duty. Years of drought that have reduced cattle herds have also raised prices. Beef costs rose 1.2% in September and are up 14.7% from a year earlier, Friday’s report showed.
Even as inflation has fallen sharply from its peak of 9.1% more than three years ago, it remains a major concern for consumers. About half of all Americans say the cost of groceries is a “major” source of stress, according to an August poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
And the Conference Board, a business research group, finds that consumers are still referencing prices and inflation in responses to its monthly survey on consumer confidence.
Many economists, as well as some Fed officials, expect that the tariffs will create a one-time lift to prices that will fade by early next year. At the same time, inflation excluding the tariffs is cooling, they argue: Rental price increases, for example, are declining on average nationwide.
Yet Trump is imposing tariffs in an ongoing fashion that could raise prices in a more sustained fashion.
For example, the Trump administration is investigating whether to slap 100% tariffs on imports from Nicaragua over alleged human rights violations. The prospect of such steep duties is a major headache for Dan Rattigan, the co-founder of premium chocolate maker French Broad, based in Asheville, N.C.
“We’ve been shouldering some significant additional costs,” Rattigan said. The United States barely produces any cocoa, so his company imports it from Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, and Uganda. The imports from Nicaragua were duty-free because the country had a trade agreement with the United States, but now faces an 18% import tax.
Cocoa prices have more than doubled over the past two years because of poor weather and blights in West Africa, which produces more than 70% of the world’s cocoa. The tariffs are an additional hit on top of that. Rattigan is also paying more for almonds, hazelnuts, and chocolate-making equipment from Italy, which has also been hit with tariffs.
French Broad raised its prices slightly earlier this year and doesn’t have any plans to do so again. But after the winter holidays, “all bets are off… in what is a very unpredictable business climate,” Rattigan said.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday as Ottawa sought to head off a new round of American tariffs on Canadian goods just hours before a midnight deadline.
Trump signed orders for the steep 50% duties last month, with the White House alleging “discriminatory treatment” by Canada against U.S. alcohol, automobile and dairy products.
The tariffs are set to take effect Wednesday, covering products such as wine, hockey sticks and cement.
Efforts to avoid the tariffs are going down to the wire.
Carney spoke by phone with Trump on Monday afternoon about the trade negotiations, a spokesperson for the Canadian leader told AFP.
On Monday, Carney said that talks to avert the duties were at an “intense and delicate” stage.
Overall, Trump’s incoming tariffs target around 5.5% of Canada’s exports to the United States, worth about $20 billion, Oxford Economics estimates.
While this only poses a “modest” negative risk to Canada’s economy, Oxford Economics said in a recent report that the duties would “affect central Canada’s manufacturing sector much more severely.”
Canadian negotiators have been in Washington to push for a deal to avoid the new tariffs and also secure relief on Trump’s sector-specific duties – which have battered Canada’s auto, steel, lumber and aluminum industries.
Ottawa has reportedly offered concessions such as pressuring provinces to put U.S. alcohol and wine back on their shelves, Canadian media said. But it remains unclear if a deal is imminent.
The U.S. Trade Representative’s office did not respond to queries on the matter.
“It’s not unusual for a trade negotiation to go right up to the deadline,” former U.S. commerce official Christopher Padilla told AFP.
He expects that the Trump administration threatened new tariffs to try and win early concessions from Canada as the countries negotiate over renewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA).
But even if officials reached a pact that was acceptable to both sides on the trade front, this might be rejected by Trump, who could seek to penalize Canada over other political concerns, he said.
This could include issues like Canada’s efforts to deepen economic ties with European countries or China.
“The relationship with Canada has been challenging from the beginning,” Padilla said.
He warned that Trump also has “a history of lashing out against allies when he is frustrated on other fronts,” such as when he is not getting what he wants from parties like Iran, China or Russia.
Oxford Economics anticipates that manufacturers who stand to be most impacted include those in the cement, paper, printing, wood, clothing and electronics equipment sectors.
With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down many of Trump’s global tariffs earlier this year, the president had tapped an untested legal provision for the new duties targeting Canada.
These duties will not apply to energy, potash or goods already facing sector-specific tariffs, but they are set to hit products covered by the USMCA.
Trump’s trade envoy Jamieson Greer said the tariffs aimed to “hold Canada accountable” for its retaliation against the United States.
Provinces have taken U.S. alcohol products off their shelves, he said, and “given better market access to dairy products from the European Union” among other actions, Greer said in July.
Türkiye is on the verge of getting a new homegrown passenger car brand, as the industrial group HABAŞ edges closer to revealing its first models, with acclaimed designer Frank Stephenson at the helm of the design process.
HABAŞ, which acquired Japanese automaker Honda’s former manufacturing plant in the northwestern Gebze district, is expected to introduce its first passenger car by the end of the year, according to Turkish business daily Ekonomim on Tuesday.
The project would make HABAŞ Türkiye’s second passenger car brand backed by 100% domestic capital after electric vehicle maker Togg.
The group would initially develop two models, a sedan and a crossover, with plans to offer three powertrain options: gasoline, hybrid and plug-in hybrid.
The company has not yet confirmed later-stage plans for fully electric models.
Project led by Ferrari, McLaren designer
The project involves Stephenson, the U.S.-born designer known for his work with major automotive brands including BMW, Ferrari and McLaren.
Stephenson’s official website says he is working on the design of a new Turkish automotive brand, without naming the company, Ekonomim said.
His team’s work is reportedly expected to cover the entire design process, from establishing the brand’s design language and 3D modeling to surface development, clay modeling and engineering support.
The project description also points to plans spanning sedan, crossover, SUV and light commercial vehicle segments.
Stephenson’s ties to Türkiye
Stephenson also has a personal connection to Türkiye. Born in Morocco in 1959, he spent part of his childhood in Istanbul after his family moved to the city because of his father’s work.
He lived in Türkiye between the ages of 11 and 16, attended school and learned Turkish before moving to Madrid with his family.
He later built a career as one of the automotive industry’s best-known designers.
Over $1 billion investment planned
The project forms part of a broader investment plan estimated at around 1 billion euros ($1.16 billion) for commercial and passenger vehicle production, according to previous statements by HABAŞ officials.
The former Honda plant in Gebze is expected to serve as the production base for the passenger cars, with HABAŞ reportedly targeting annual production capacity of 75,000 vehicles.
Former Honda plant becomes foundation
HABAŞ’s ambitions are built around Honda’s former Turkish production facility.
The Japanese carmaker produced Civic Sedan models at the Gebze plant for 24 years before ending production in Türkiye in 2021. HABAŞ subsequently acquired the facility.
The company also purchased equipment from Honda’s former plant in the U.K. after its closure and brought some of that equipment to Türkiye.
HABAŞ has traditionally operated in industrial and metals-related businesses. The group is involved in sectors including industrial and medical gases, iron and steel, energy production, heavy machinery, automotive, banking and seaport operations. In automotive, it is producing buses, midibuses, tow trucks and heavy cargo trucks.
The group appears to be relying on the involvement of Stephenson, whose portfolio includes high-profile sports and premium cars, which will add international design credentials to the project in Türkiye’s competitive passenger car market.
The bigger challenge will come after the unveiling: moving from design and prototypes to mass production and establishing a sustainable presence in the domestic market.
Türkiye’s home prices continued to rise in nominal terms in July but fell further behind inflation, marking an eighth consecutive month of declines in real terms, official data showed Tuesday.
The residential property price index rose 1.5% month-over-month in July and increased 25% from a year earlier in nominal terms, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said.
Adjusted for inflation, however, home prices fell 5.1% year-over-year. Annual consumer price index (CPI) stood at 31.75% in July.
Among Türkiye’s top three cities, price growth accelerated more strongly in Istanbul than in capital Ankara and western Izmir during the month.
Home prices rose 2.7% month-over-month in Istanbul, compared with 2.2% in Ankara and 0.5% in Izmir.
On a regional basis, the largest annual increase in the residential property price index was recorded in the Bingöl, Elazığ, Malatya, Tunceli, Van, Bitlis, Hakkari and Muş region, at 35.5%.
The smallest annual increase was seen in Balıkesir and Çanakkale, at 16.4%.
Rents also drop in real terms
The CBRT’s new tenant rent index, which tracks newly signed lease contracts, also showed a decline in real terms.
The index rose 1.9% month-over-month in July and 28.4% year-over-year in nominal terms, but declined 2.6% in real terms.
Regional rental trends diverged from the housing market. The Eastern Black Sea region recorded the strongest annual increase, with rents rising 35%, ahead of Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir.
In Istanbul, annual rent growth reached 32.4%, exceeding July’s 31.75% inflation rate and resulting in a real increase.
Annual rent increases were 28.6% in Ankara and 26.3% in Izmir.
The strongest regional increase was recorded in Artvin, Giresun, Gümüşhane, Ordu, Rize and Trabzon, where the new tenant rent index rose 35% year-over-year.
The lowest increase was again recorded in Balıkesir and Çanakkale, at 18.8%.
The price of an average 100-square-meter (about 1,076-square-foot) home in Istanbul approached a record high in dollar terms in the third quarter, while its value measured in grams of gold fell significantly from its 2023 peak.
That’s according to data released Tuesday by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), which highlighted a widening gap between the two benchmarks.
The preliminary third-quarter data showed a 100-square-meter home in Istanbul was worth around $189,800, close to its historical peak.
The same property, however, was equivalent to 2,034 grams of gold, down substantially from 2,911 grams in 2023.
The average price of a 100-square-meter home in Istanbul stood at around $100,000 in 2010, before falling to $88,900 by the end of 2021.
Prices subsequently climbed rapidly, reaching $188,200 in 2023.
The figures show that Istanbul housing has regained and slightly surpassed its previous dollar-denominated peak.
The picture is markedly different when housing prices are measured against gold.
A 100-square-meter Istanbul home was equivalent to 2,911 grams of gold in 2023.
Compared to this year’s third quarter, it represents a decline of roughly 30% in the property’s gold-denominated value.
That suggests that while Istanbul housing has become more expensive in dollar terms since 2022, it has failed to keep pace with gold.
For investors holding gold, this means residential property in Istanbul has become relatively more affordable, despite the rise in its dollar price.
The cost of the damage caused by Europe’s increasingly volatile weather will have to be borne by someone, and with the majority of those economic losses uninsured, the burden is likely to fall on the public purse unless immediate measures are taken.
This year’s wildfires in Southwestern Europe and the severe flooding that hit Spain in 2024 and Germany and its neighbors in 2021 show how climate damage is adding to a list of strains on Europe’s finances that already includes higher defense spending and rising costs associated with an aging population.
“The problem is that they’re becoming more recurrent,” Federico Barriga-Salazar, head of Western Europe sovereign ratings at Fitch, said of catastrophes until now largely viewed as costly budget one-offs rather than as a regular expense.
“If a government is already fiscally tight, it means that it does create some policy trade-offs,” he said of the pressure that such economic losses put on other spending items. If the current scale of the fiscal hit is arguably quite small, there is a growing acceptance that it will only get bigger in a region which is the world’s fastest-warming continent.
Weather- and climate-related extremes caused economic losses of an estimated 822 billion euros ($953 billion) in the European Union between 1980 and 2024, according to the European Environment Agency – with a quarter of that damage inflicted in just the last four years.
Public deficits across the eurozone already average around 3% of GDP. Barriga-Salazar cited estimates that the Spanish 2024 floods – Europe’s worst flooding event in five decades – imply reconstruction costs of 0.7 percentage points of output from 2024 to 2026.
Moreover, only a quarter of climate-linked catastrophe losses are insured in the EU, with coverage in some countries below 5%, the EU estimates. Some fear that level of insurance coverage will only get smaller as a proportion of overall costs as extreme weather events occur more regularly.
“I do think this just means the more you have these risks, the less they will be insured,” said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton. “This is a big issue, and it will impact some of the countries by 1% to 2% of GDP.”
Economic think tank Bruegel calculated that, while most of the 2021 flood damage was covered by insurance in Belgium, the low level of insurance coverage in Germany meant it had to draw on public funds of 30 billion euros for the bulk of damages.
Adapting, sharing risks
With the European Union due to release proposals for climate resilience and risk management this autumn, attention is focused on possible solutions.
Greece, whose tourism-dependent economy is notably exposed to the risk of heatwaves and wildfires, is looking at ways to boost insurance coverage while making water and energy infrastructure more robust in tourist hotspots.
Following huge floods in early 2026, Portugal has announced plans to introduce mandatory home insurance backed by a natural disaster and earthquake disaster fund and a solidarity mechanism to guarantee universal access.
A possible stopgap measure for some could be recourse to so-called catastrophe bonds under which investors can receive handsome returns but also lose part or all of their principal if a predefined event, such as a hurricane or earthquake, occurs.
Franklin Templeton’s Zahn noted that for the sovereign, this could amount to an expensive gamble: “If the event happens, it pays off immediately. But you could also have five years with nothing, and you just paid out 8% per year.”
Heather Grabbe, senior fellow at Bruegel, said governments needed to put in place arrangements more systematic than one-off emergency spending, which risks creating the perverse incentive for households and businesses not to take out insurance.
“All governments across Europe need to assess their exposure and make comprehensive plans to reduce future damage through adaptation investments, as well as pooling risks across borders,” Grabbe said.
Numerous studies highlight how early investments in making economies more resilient to climate change can over time save money – and avoid what a 2025 Oxford University study called an “adaptation investment trap,” where repeated climate disasters raise debt and so leave less money for protection measures.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has argued that green investments worth 0.1% of GDP could prevent economic losses totaling eight times that, and avoid tax revenue losses amounting to three times the original investment.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has proposed a joint EU public-private reinsurance scheme pooling private risks from natural catastrophes, backed up by an EU fund for public disaster financing.
But the question is whether this summer’s heatwaves will generate the political will to take on some of the upfront costs of such action – both at government and EU level.
A European Commission spokesperson said the EU executive was looking into ways to address the climate insurance protection gap as part of a package of measures due to be adopted by the end of the year.
Surging copper prices have helped Australian mining titan BHP post a solid rise in annual profits, according to financial results shared by the company on Tuesday.
Copper is a key metal for the global energy transition and artificial data centers.
Net profit climbed 9% from a year earlier to $9.8 billion in the financial year to June 30, said the resources group, the world’s biggest miner by market value.
Revenue rose 14.6% to $58.8 billion.
BHP is the world’s biggest copper producer and plans to expand output of the red metal by about 40% by 2035, the group said in a statement.
The miner also reported record iron ore production and a strong result in coal, but copper was the star commodity and expected to remain so.
“Copper is the engine that is driving BHP’s growth,” chief executive Brandon Craig said.
Copper prices were 26% higher on average in the 2026 financial year, the company said.
The metal has eclipsed iron ore as the biggest earner for BHP, generating more than half of the group’s operating profit for the first time.
Global copper demand is expected to grow to more than 50 million tons by 2050, it said.
As economies expand, copper will be required to build electricity networks for the transition away from fossil fuels, and to create data centers for artificial intelligence, BHP said.
“We also see a looming global copper supply challenge, as existing copper mines age, and with the pipeline of potential projects less healthy than in previous cycles.”
The group said it would pay shareholders a four-year record high dividend of of $1.72 a share, equal to $8.7 billion.
BHP shares climbed 3.3% to AU$64.24 ($45.63) in morning trade.
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