Oil prices rose slightly on Monday while stocks were mixed, with the U.S. and Iran no closer to ending their two-month war after President Donald Trump cancelled his envoys’ trip for peace talks over the weekend.

Hopes that the two sides could make progress during negotiations in Pakistan were dashed Saturday by the U.S. president, who said there was no point “sitting around talking about nothing.”

He said on Fox News that he told his team, “We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want, but you’re not going to be making any more 18-hour flights to sit around talking about nothing.”

However, he told reporters a revised proposal from Iran had followed within minutes of his decision.

“They gave us a paper that should have been better and – interestingly – immediately, when I cancelled it, within 10 minutes, we got a new paper that was much better,” he said, without elaborating.

Asked separately whether the cancellation meant a return to hostilities, Trump said: “No, it doesn’t mean that. We haven’t thought about it yet.”

But even before Trump’s move, prospects for talks were uncertain, with Iranian state television saying Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had no plans to meet U.S. officials and that Islamabad would act as a conduit for proposals.

Axios on Sunday cited unnamed sources, including a U.S. official, as saying Tehran had provided a new offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes – with nuclear talks pushed back to a later date.

Talks between the rivals have reached an impasse, with Iran hitting out at a U.S. blockade of its ports and the White House demanding that Tehran allow ships to transit the crucial waterway.

Iranian state media said Monday that Araghchi had arrived in Saint Petersburg for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The trip comes after visits to Islamabad and Oman in a flurry of regional diplomacy.

Soon after landing, Araghchi blamed the United States for the failure of the peace talks, citing its “excessive demands,” adding that “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz is an important global issue.”

Oil prices rose around 2% earlt Monday, though lingering hopes that a deal can eventually be reached have tempered the gains.

However, Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com, warned they could surge again at any time.

“If tensions were to escalate further, particularly into open conflict, there’s a clear risk of a sharper spike,” he wrote.

“For now, though, as long as shipping through the Strait remains constrained, that premium is unlikely to fade. Until there’s a credible breakthrough, the path of least resistance still looks higher, with a move beyond $110 appearing increasingly plausible.”

Stocks fluctuated, with Tokyo, Seoul, and Taipei sharply up on the back of AI-fuelled tech gains following US giant Intel’s healthy revenue forecasts.

There were also gains in Shanghai, Mumbai, Bangkok and Jakarta, while Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore and Manila fell.

London fell at the open while Paris and Frankfurt rose.

That came after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended Friday at fresh record highs.

Investors were also looking ahead to earnings this week from U.S. tech titans Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, while the Federal Reserve will hold a closely watched policy meeting at which it is expected to stand pat on interest rates.

Key figures at 07:15 GMT

West Texas Intermediate (WTI): up 1.9% at $96.18 a barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: up 2.1% at $107.51 a barrel

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: up 1.4% at 60,537.36 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: down 0.3% at 25,911.28

Shanghai – Composite: up 0.2% at 4,086.34 (close)

London – FTSE 100: down 0.2% at 10,362.72

Euro/dollar: up at $1.1727 from $1.1717 on Friday

Pound/dollar: up at $1.3537 from $1.3530

Dollar/yen: down at 159.30 yen from 159.42 yen

Euro/pound: up at 86.63 pence from 86.60 pence

New York – Dow Jones: down 0.2% at 49,230.71 (close)

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Türkiye’s economic management has created a successful framework and risk management, but the program involves a dynamic process and needs a “fine-tuning” and review, the head of a leading business association said, according to remarks published on Sunday.

“We will not set aside the fight against inflation, but with fine-tuning, we need to review the exchange rate policy, export regime, and import regime within the program. I believe we must design and implement this integrated process very quickly,” said Şekib Avdagiç, the chairperson of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO).

Speaking to journalists, Avdagiç said that thanks to the successful work of the economic management over more than three years, Türkiye has moved from a problematic foreign exchange reserve situation to a much more reasonable level, and that an important goal has been achieved in terms of external funding access.

However, he noted that with the developments triggered by the war, it would be appropriate to evaluate the situation from a broader perspective.

“As the business world, we have tried to contribute as much as we can to achieving the targets of the economic program. For this, the business community has also paid a significant cost,” Anadolu Agency (AA) quoted him as saying.

Avdagiç’s remarks on the economic program, which was put in place in the middle of 2023, marking a shift to more conventional macroeconomic policies to curb soaring inflation, come amid some calls to pause the fight against inflation amid the ongoing war in the Middle East.

Earlier this week, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek sought to dismiss these calls, arguing that sustainable and high growth can only be achieved through low inflation.

“This is a very myopic approach,” he said. “The path to permanent and high growth is through the process of low inflation. If inflation falls, growth will multiply.”

Türkiye’s annual inflation dropped to 30.87% in March from 31.53% in February, compared to the peak of around 85% in October 2022 and around 65% in 2023.

Responding to a question about the central bank’s interest rate decision, Avdagiç went on to say that: “I do not think it would be very correct, realistic, or result-oriented to look at the issue merely as a simple interest rate increase or a decision to keep it unchanged.”

“I believe we are entering a period where economic processes must be reviewed holistically in terms of the sustainability of the business world,” he argued.

“The economic management has created a successful framework and risk management. It is not possible to ignore our gains,” he maintained.

“At this stage, however, we think that, together with the conditions brought by the war and taking into account the expectations of the business world, some updates are needed in the policy that has so far been financial- and reserve-heavy,” he added.

“Of course, the program involves a dynamic process. We will not set aside the fight against inflation, but with a fine-tuning, we need to review the exchange rate policy, export regime, and import regime within the program. I believe we must design and implement this integrated process very quickly.”

The war between the U.S., Israel and Iran, which began two months ago, has led to a notable ascent in global energy prices, while also threatening supply chains of raw materials, including fertilizers, which are used for crops.

The conflict has added pressure on countries relying on imports, but in the face of disruptions, Ankara has touted the success of its diversification strategy and relatively low dependence on Gulf countries for oil and gas supplies.

In response to uncertainties, the Turkish central bank has, in both of its last policy meetings, kept interest rates unchanged at 37%.

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As Turkish capital Ankara gears up to host the NATO summit, which will take place on July 7-8, the accommodation sector has also begun intensive preparations for the event, according to a report on Sunday.

Ahead of the major event, high-end hotels in the city are accelerating their reservation and operational preparation processes.

During the summit, NATO-standard security protocols will be implemented in hotels for heads of state and senior delegations. The modernization of security systems, the creation of special protocol areas, and staff training form the main pillars of these preparations.

The summit is expected to generate significant added value for Ankara’s economy not only through accommodation but also through logistics, food and beverage, and service sectors. In order to meet the rising demand created by the event, hotels are planning additional recruitment, while placing particular emphasis on training staff in foreign languages and protocol management.

Gökhan Esengil, the chairperson of the regional executive board of the Tourism Hotel Managers Association, told Anadolu Agency (AA) that the process related to the summit is proceeding differently from typical tourism activity.

Explaining that most reservations are made through corporate block bookings rather than individual guests, Esengil said that as the summit dates approach, occupancy rates in our high-end hotels in Ankara has “reached around 90%.”

Also, emphasizing that security measures are being raised to the highest level due to the nature of the event, Esengil elaborated: “In such events, our hotels cease to be mere accommodation facilities and turn into controlled diplomatic areas. At entrances and exits, multi-layered security measures are implemented, and some of our hotels are fully or partially allocated to delegations. Coordination with state security units has reached the highest level.”

Furthermore, noting that Ankara hotels already have experience in hosting bureaucratic guests and therefore provide services with qualified staff, Esengil said that special training programs for the summit are also ongoing.

He added that staff are being trained especially in protocol rules, crisis management, foreign languages, and service standards, and that the use of external service providers is also being increased to support operations.

He also suggested that the economic impact of the summit will not be limited to the accommodation sector.

“Transportation, car rental, restaurants, event companies, and technical service providers will all directly benefit from this activity,” he said.

“The high spending capacity of incoming guests will provide a significant short-term boost to the city’s economy. This summit will strengthen Ankara’s brand value by proving its capacity to host international events.”

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A flurry of decisions by major global central banks is expected to mark this week in global markets as policymakers try to navigate rising pressures on domestic economies following the start of the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran at the end of February.

The U.S. central bank, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are all due to gather at their respective monetary policy meetings this week, with expectations largely tilted to the prospect of all of them remaining wary of risks and keeping rates on hold, and thus restraining from hikes at the moment.

The Federal Reserve (Fed), which meets first, is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged as energy prices stay high and supply chains disrupted due to war in the Middle East.

The Fed’s two-day meeting, starting Tuesday, could be the last one for Jerome Powell at the helm of the independent institution.

But it takes place against a tricky backdrop.

Powell’s successor has faced a bumpy road to confirmation, while policymakers battle competing pressures as steeper fuel prices drive inflation and job market worries linger.

Fed officials are set to keep rates steady at a range between 3.50% and 3.75%, extending their pause since the start of the year.

“We still have a very high level of uncertainty on what’s happening in the Middle East,” KPMG senior economist Kenneth Kim told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Oil and gasoline prices remain elevated even if they have peaked, meaning “there’s certainly an energy shock that’s still impacting both consumers and businesses,” he said.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and low unemployment. It tends to keep interest rates high to curb inflation or lower them to spur growth, meaning that current conditions pull officials in different directions.

Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long expects Powell to be “non-committal” on the path of rates, as the full impact from the war on Iran remains unknown.

The oil price hikes came after U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iran from Feb. 28 sparked Tehran’s retaliation in virtually closing the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for energy transit.

Containing inflation

Fed officials will likely focus more on containing inflation than the job market at this meeting, with the war entering its ninth week.

The strait is also a key passage for fertilizers, and disruptions threaten to hit food production.

Already, U.S. consumer inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March at 3.3% as energy costs skyrocketed.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who earlier backed lower rates to support employment, indicated this month that a prolonged conflict could make it hard for the central bank to cut rates this year.

If there were high inflation and a weak labor market, one would have to balance risks on both sides.

This “may mean maintaining the policy rate at the current target range if the risks to inflation outweigh those to the labor market,” he told an Alabama event.

KPMG’s Kim said solid hiring recently “gives the Fed some cushion” to temporarily focus more on prices. Analysts will monitor if the Fed signals in its post-meeting statement that rate hikes are a possibility.

‘Critical juncture’

The Fed is also taking its next steps under intense political scrutiny.

President Donald Trump has made no secret of his wish for lower interest rates, and regularly slammed Powell for not cutting them aggressively.

Beyond rhetoric, Trump has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over claims of mortgage fraud. The Supreme Court is set to rule on whether he can fire her.

Meanwhile, Trump’s choice of new Fed chairperson, Kevin Warsh, has faced a bumpy road to confirmation.

Republican senator Thom Tillis on the Senate Banking Committee vowed to block Fed appointments until a Justice Department probe into the Fed and Powell is resolved, setting up a potential impasse on the panel Warsh needs to clear.

But the Department of Justice (DOJ) said Friday it would drop the investigation linked to renovation costs overruns, potentially paving the way for Warsh’s ascendance.

Asked by journalists on Saturday about the DOJ’s move, Trump said he still wants to look into the cost of the Federal Reserve building renovations, which he has claimed is too high.

“I tell you, I want to find out. I have an obligation to find out,” he said.

Warsh has repeatedly pledged to remain independent if confirmed.

“We’re at a critical juncture for the Fed,” EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco told AFP.

“It may be that under Warsh, we’re going to see less Fed transparency, less Fed communication than we had in the past,” he said, referring to Warsh’s confirmation hearing testimony.

Powell’s term as chair expires May 15, and he originally intended to stay on the Fed’s board of governors until the probe on him is completed. All eyes will turn on him, and if he shares any plans at his scheduled press briefing on Wednesday.

ECB, BoE likely to hold too

Meanwhile, according to recent polls, both the ECB and BoE, are also expected to keep their policy rates unchanged on Thursday despite risks to inflation in the U.K. and slowing manufacturing in the eurozone.

Bank of England policymakers will “almost certainly” hold interest rates at 3.75% at their meeting, despite the Iran war pushing up the cost of living, economists have said.

However, experts have said a future interest rate increase could still be a possibility if firms and households continue to face inflationary pressures.

The Bank of England’s nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will vote on whether to maintain, increase or decrease its base interest rate on April 30. The bank will also publish its first full monetary policy report and set of economic forecasts since the Middle East conflict began in late February.

This week, a raft of economic data has shown that the conflict has helped to drive inflation higher.

Data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that inflation climbed to 3.3% in March, a three-month high, on the back of accelerating fuel prices.

The price of motor fuels jumped by 8.7% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since June 2022, as disruption to oil production and transportation drove diesel and petrol prices higher.

Despite these figures, economists broadly expect the bank’s rate-setters to maintain the current interest rate.

Oxford Economics chief U.K. economist Andrew Goodwin said: “We expect the MPC to keep bank rate unchanged at 3.75%, with most committee members seemingly keen to hold policy at its current restrictive level as they gather more information about how the energy shock is feeding through to the economy.”

The European Central Bank is also expected to hold its deposit rate on April 30 but hike it in June, according to just over half of economists polled by Reuters.

Economists, however, failed to agree on what would follow June’s quarter-point lift, largely seen as an ‌insurance move because the extent of any second-round inflationary effects arising from higher fuel prices was still unclear.

ECB policymakers have sounded more determined than their peers to contain inflation but have played down the likelihood of an immediate rate rise, citing insufficient evidence that energy costs, which they can’t control, are spilling into broader price rises.

The central bank is still haunted by its slow reaction to a rapid inflation surge in 2022, while also wary of repeating its 2011 mistake, when it raised rates twice in four months as commodity prices climbed, making a eurozone debt crisis worse.

The European Central Bank must ‌be cautious when setting interest rates, given the great uncertainty associated with the war in Iran, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said ​on Tuesday.

All but one of 85 economists in the April 17 to 23 Reuters poll predicted the ECB would hold its deposit rate at 2% next week.

Just over half, or 44, forecast a June increase to 2.25%, while 40 expected no change. Until late last month, most economists had expected rates to stay unchanged this year.

“The ECB will try to avoid a repeat of 2011. They need to have some clarity that whenever they hike, they’re not going to have to undo that quickly. And that’s a reason to move in June rather than in April,” Ruben Segura-Cayuela, head of the European economics research at Bank of America, said.

“There’s still a scenario in which the ECB looks through the shock … The risk is the activity will react a bit more negatively than we are expecting. That might create additional incentives to delay hikes. And ‌once you delay hikes, at some point, you might decide not to hike at all.”

Hailing Türkiye as the “island of stability” in the region amid recent conflicts, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently presented a series of new economic measures aimed at boosting investment, attracting global capital, and strengthening the country’s position as a regional financial and startup hub.

At an event on Friday, Erdoğan introduced a wide-ranging set of tax incentives aimed at strengthening Türkiye’s investment environment, including certain tax exemptions on foreign income, lowering taxes for manufacturing exporters and those targeting institutions operating at the Istanbul Financial Center (IFC).

“By successfully managing one of the biggest security crises of recent years, Türkiye has once again proven that it is an island of stability in its region. This war, which is reshaping the global economic order and value chains, has turned our country into a cornerstone of global economic stability,” the president said.

“The old definitions describing Türkiye merely as a bridge between East-West and North-South have proven insufficient. It is now clear that our country is not just a bridge or energy corridor, but an indispensable hub for energy and trade routes in the region,” he added.

He also suggested that legal, administrative, financial and institutional steps are being taken to boost competitiveness, ensure sustainable high growth and strengthen the investment environment.

He said that his government ​will soon submit a comprehensive legislative package to Parliament aimed ⁠at boosting investment, competitiveness ⁠and growth, including a cut in the manufacturing exporters’ tax to ​9%.

Among others, Erdoğan said new regulations would encourage citizens and companies to bring their overseas assets into the Turkish economy.

“We are implementing arrangements that will enable assets held abroad by our citizens and companies to be brought into our economy. In this context, we are allowing money, gold, and securities held abroad to be transferred to Türkiye within a certain period at a low tax rate,” he said.

Erdoğan also announced expanded tax incentives for institutions operating at the IFC, including full tax exemptions on certain international trade activities.

“With the regulations we will introduce, we are expanding tax advantages provided to institutions operating at the Istanbul Financial Center. We are increasing the current 50% tax deduction rate on earnings from transit trade and intermediary activities in overseas goods trading to 100%,” he said, noting that such earnings will be exempt from corporate tax.

He added that similar incentives will be extended beyond the finance center, with 95% of earnings from transit trade activities outside the center exempt from taxation.

Erdoğan also said Türkiye will also offer major incentives to attract global companies’ regional headquarters, including long-term tax advantages and income exemptions for qualified employees.

Streamlining procedures

He highlighted the introduction of a system to streamline investment processes, enabling all procedures, from company establishment to work permits and tax transactions, to be handled through a single, digitalized platform, dubbed “one-stop office.”

On exports, the president announced further tax cuts to support exporters, particularly manufacturers.

Erdoğan also unveiled incentives aimed at attracting individuals living abroad and said individuals who have lived abroad and have not been Turkish taxpayers for the past three years will be exempt from taxes on foreign income for 20 years if they relocate to Türkiye.

“We will only tax their income, if any, for the country. In Türkiye, we will apply a 1% inheritance tax for these individuals,” he stated.

He also announced the launch of the first phase of the “Terminal Istanbul Project” to strengthen the country’s entrepreneurial infrastructure.

He added that project-based guarantees will be introduced for large-scale investments to enhance predictability and minimize the impact of future tax changes.

‘Resilience to absorb shocks’

Stressing Türkiye’s economic resilience, Erdoğan said the country is now better equipped to withstand global shocks.

“Türkiye’s economy has gained the strength, capacity, and resilience to absorb much larger shocks compared to the past,” he said.

Erdoğan also said that the detailed framework of reforms will soon be shared with the business community and investors before being submitted to Parliament.

“Türkiye’s path and future are open,” he said. “Despite global economic storms, our economy now has the strength and resilience to absorb major shocks.”

He highlighted that Türkiye’s economy has grown from $238 billion to $1.6 trillion over the past 23 years and emphasized the country’s rising global standing.

“Türkiye is no longer the old Türkiye. It is stronger in its economy, defense industry, infrastructure and diplomacy. Today, there is a powerful and influential Türkiye whose star continues to rise.”

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Türkiye has exported nearly $316.85 million worth of sunflower oil in the first quarter of the year, marking an increase of over 17% compared to the same period a year ago, according to a report on Sunday.

According to information compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM), Türkiye exported 195,995 tons of sunflower oil to 93 countries and free zones in the January-March period of 2026.

The sector generated approximately $316.85 million in revenue from these exports. In the same period last year, exports totaled 183,125 tons worth $270.396 million, meaning that in the first quarter of this year, export value increased by 17.2% and volume by 7%.

From the Southeastern Anatolia Region, which accounts for 61.7% of Türkiye’s sunflower oil exports, about $195.65 million worth of exports were made, according to the data.

During this period, the largest destination for Türkiye’s sunflower oil exports was Djibouti with $126.094 million, followed by Sudan with $33.798 million and Syria with $20.416 million.

Celal Kadooğlu, the president of the Southeastern Anatolia Cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds and Products Exporters’ Association, said that reaching 18.3% share in global refined sunflower oil trade clearly demonstrates Türkiye’s international strength in food trade.

Commenting on the sector’s performance for the rest of the year, Kadooğlu suggested that global constraints in raw material supply and the war conditions surrounding the region “will be decisive for performance in the remaining period.”

“In particular, Russia’s extension of export taxes until the end of 2026 creates pressure on the supply chain, but we are able to overcome this challenge through our strong stock management, timely interventions by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO), and the flexibility of our high-tech facilities,” he noted.

“Through the Inward Processing Regime, we process the seeds we obtain by adding value and bring them to global markets under the ‘Turkish oil’ brand. I see our ability to surpass raw material giants such as Ukraine and Russia in refined product exports not only as a logistical advantage, but also as a result of years of technological accumulation. I believe this dynamism will also enable us to reach our 25% market share target within the next 10 years,” he added.

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