Economy
China deal ‘done,’ Beijing to supply rare earths: Trump
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the U.S. deal with China is “done,” with Beijing to supply magnets and rare earth minerals while Washington will allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities.
“WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!” Trump wrote on Truth Social using his trademark capitalization.
“FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!),” Trump said.
Trump’s statement came as China and the U.S., the world’s two largest economies, said that they have agreed on a framework to get their trade negotiations back on track after a series of disputes that threatened to derail them. The two sides on Tuesday wrapped up two days of talks in London that appeared to focus on finding a way to resolve disputes over mineral and technology exports that had shaken a fragile truce on trade reached in Geneva last month.
The Geneva deal had faltered over China’s curbs on critical minerals exports, prompting the Trump administration to respond with export controls of its own, preventing shipments of semiconductor design software, aircraft and other goods to China.
Trump’s shifting tariff policies have roiled global markets, sparked congestion and confusion in major ports, and cost companies tens of billions of dollars in lost sales and higher costs.
“First, we had to get sort of the negativity out and now we can go forward,” U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters after the London meetings.
Asian stock markets rose Wednesday after the agreement was announced.
The talks followed a phone call last week between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to try to calm the waters.
Li Chenggang, a vice minister of commerce and China’s international trade representative, said the two sides had agreed in principle on a framework for implementing the consensus reached on the phone call and at the talks in Geneva, the official Xinhua News Agency said.
Further details, including any plans for a potential next round of talks, were not immediately available.
Li and Wang Wentao, China’s commerce minister, were part of the delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng. They met with Lutnick, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer at Lancaster House, a 200-year-old mansion near Buckingham Palace.
Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator, said the disputes had frittered away 30 of the 90 days the two sides have to try to resolve their disputes.
They agreed in Geneva to a 90-day suspension of most of the 100%-plus tariffs they had imposed on each other in an escalating trade war that sparked fears of recession. The World Bank, citing a rise in trade barriers, cut its projections for U.S. and global economic growth on Tuesday.
“The U.S. and China lost valuable time in restoring their Geneva agreements,” said Cutler, now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Now, only sixty days remain to address issues of concern, including unfair trade practices, excess capacity, transshipment and fentanyl.”
Since the Geneva talks, the U.S. and China have exchanged angry words over advanced semiconductors that power artificial intelligence, visas for Chinese students at American universities and rare earth minerals that are vital to carmakers and other industries.
China, the world’s biggest producer of rare earths, has signaled it may speed up issuing export licenses for the elements. Beijing, in turn, wants the U.S. to lift restrictions on Chinese access to the technology used to make advanced semiconductors.
Lutnick said that resolving the rare earths issue is a fundamental part of the agreed-upon framework and that the U.S. will remove measures it had imposed in response. He did not specify which measures.
“When they approve the licenses, then you should expect that our export implementation will come down as well,” he said.
Cutler said it would be unprecedented for the U.S. to negotiate on its export controls, which she described as an irritant that China has been raising for nearly 20 years.
“By doing so, the U.S. has opened a door for China to insist on adding export controls to future negotiating agendas,” she said.
In Washington, a federal appeals court agreed Tuesday to let the government keep collecting tariffs that Trump has imposed not just on China but also on other countries worldwide while the administration appeals a ruling against his signature trade policy.
Trump said earlier that he wants to “open up China,” the world’s dominant manufacturer, to U.S. products.
“If we don’t open up China, maybe we won’t do anything,” Trump said at the White House. “But we want to open up China.”
New tax incentives as part of a comprehensive legislative package will strengthen Türkiye’s position in high-value-added global service sectors, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said on Friday.
Şimşek said the government would continue supporting foreign currency-earning activities in line with its goal of making Türkiye a major hub for services exports.
“We will further strengthen our global position in high-value-added services exports by increasing the tax deduction to 100%, provided that the full earnings from many service activities are brought back to Türkiye,” he said in a post on social media platform NSosyal.
Ankara has increasingly prioritized services exports, viewing the sector as one of the key sources of foreign currency inflows and a buffer against Türkiye’s chronic goods trade deficit.
Şimşek highlighted the strength of Türkiye’s services trade surplus, saying it had reached nearly $63 billion.
Türkiye’s annualized services exports reached $122.2 billion as of February this year. Imports stood at $59.7 billion.
Total exports of goods and services reached a historic $396 billion in 2025, according to official data.
The government’s medium-term economic program foresees overall exports reaching $282 billion this year. Together with services exports, that figure is estimated to total $410 billion.
The new measure is designed to encourage exporters to fully repatriate foreign currency revenues while boosting Türkiye’s appeal in sectors such as software, gaming, health tourism and other knowledge-intensive services.
The incentive is part of a broad package aimed at boosting Türkiye’s competitiveness and attracting investment.
The package also foresees Türkiye reducing the manufacturing exporters’ corporate tax rate to 9%. The incentives also include zero corporate income tax on transit trade.
Major central banks left interest rates unchanged this week but warned that they could raise them soon to prevent a jump in energy prices, caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, spilling over into a surge in broader inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) kept rates steady, but three policymakers felt the reference to an “easing bias” in the policy statement was no longer appropriate, while central banks in Europe and Japan hinted that they will hike rates at upcoming meetings.
Here’s where the 10 developed market central banks stand, ranked from the highest policy rate to the lowest:
Australia
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has raised rates twice this year, now to 4.1% – the highest rate in the G-10. Markets see around an 80% chance it’ll hike again next week, and expect at least two increases by year-end.
Inflation is running hot. Wednesday data showed headline inflation at 4.1% in the first quarter compared to a year earlier, well above the RBA’s 2-3% target range, though the core measure, at 3.5%, offered a modicum of relief.
Norway
Norges Bank also meets next week, having said it may raise rates once or twice this year to rein in renewed inflation pressures from strong wage growth and higher energy costs.
It kept rates on hold in March at 4%.
Core inflation, at around 3% in March, has exceeded its target of 2% each month since early 2022.
Britain
The Bank of England (BoE) left its key rate steady at 3.75% on Thursday, with one vote for a rate hike.
The BoE also scrapped its usual practice of publishing a central forecast for inflation and other key economic indicators, instead producing three scenarios, the most extreme of which could require a “forceful” increase in borrowing costs.
United States
The Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday in an 8-4 vote, the narrowest split in decades. Three officials opposed a tilt toward easing, and one voted for a rate cut.
The Fed kept the “easing bias” in its policy statement, but outgoing Chair Jerome Powell said that a change could conceivably be made as soon as June.
Traders expect the Fed to skip rate cuts in 2026 and possibly raise rates in the first half of 2027.
Nez Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held rates at 2.25% earlier in April. Its governor said this week that measures of core inflation were stable within its 1%-3% target band in the first quarter, though it was ready to act if needed.
Markets are pricing three hikes by the end of the year.
Canada
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady at 2.25% on Wednesday, saying higher oil prices would benefit Canada by boosting export revenues, while modestly squeezing businesses and consumers.
The BoC assumed oil prices would fall to $75 a barrel by mid‑2027, and if so, its policy rate was about right. But it said it would respond swiftly if inflation proved persistent.
Inflation rose to 2.4% in March, within the BoC’s target range.
Eurozone
The ECB is also biding its time for now. It too left rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday but signaled its rising concerns over soaring inflation, bolstering bets it would lift rates several times this year, with an initial move likely as soon as June.
President Christine Lagarde said the final decision to hold rates was unanimous, but told a press conference a possible rate hike had been discussed “at length” by policymakers.
Sweden
The Riksbank meets next week, with most economists expecting no change to the 1.75% key rate.
Swedish policymakers have also warned of the risks of higher inflation due to the war, and say they could take action if needed.
Japan
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept rates steady at 0.75% on Tuesday but gave unusually blunt signals of a near-term rate hike, warning extra vigilance was needed to keep inflation in check.
Three dissenters proposed a hike.
Since 2022, the BOJ has cautiously raised rates from negative territory. They remain lower than elsewhere, contributing to yen weakness, which in turn could further drive inflation.
Complicating the picture for the BOJ, Japanese government bond yields are at their highest in decades.
Switzerland
At 0%, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has the lowest rates in the G-10.
The SNB is expected to leave rates steady at its June meeting and to rely on foreign exchange intervention to counter a sharp appreciation of the Swiss franc, which has been supported by investors seeking safe-haven assets.
A stronger currency lowers import prices, cushioning the inflationary impact of higher energy costs, but risks pushing inflation below the SNB’s 0%-2% target range.
Consumer prices rose by 0.3% last month, compared with March 2025, the highest in 12 months.
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB) kept their benchmark interest rates steady on Thursday, joining peers including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as policymakers continue to weigh risks from the ongoing conflict and blockade in Iran.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in Britain voted 8-1 to keep the BoE’s benchmark rate at 3.75% as only Chief Economist Huw Pill sought a hike to 4.0%, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists.
A day after the Fed kept rates on hold and shortly before the European Central Bank left rates unchanged too, the MPC said it would continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East.
Sterling weakened slightly against the U.S. dollar and the euro. Two-year British government bond yields, which are sensitive to speculation about BoE rates, fell by around 5 basis points, and investors dialled back on their bets on three BoE rate hikes this year.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said the central bank would face a “difficult judgment call” on whether to raise rates, as waiting for conclusive evidence would leave things too late.
ECB on hold as inflation picks up to 3%
Holding rates at 2%, the ECB did not surprise as it also held interest rates steady and warned of growing risks to the growth and inflation outlook due to the war in the Middle East.
Energy costs have spiked since the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas usually passes, following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.
Eurozone inflation is already picking up – it jumped to 3% in April, above the ECB’s 2%, but concerns about inflation have to be balanced against the risk of curbing lackluster growth by making borrowing more expensive.
“The upside risks to inflation and the downside risks to growth have intensified,” the ECB said in a statement announcing its decision.
“The longer the war continues and the longer energy prices remain high, the stronger is the likely impact on broader inflation and the economy,” it said.
Ahead of the meeting, analysts had expected the ECB to keep its key deposit rate at two percent, where it has been since June last year, as the bank waits to see how the war plays out.
Italian bank UniCredit wrote in a note that it did not “see the urgency” for the Frankfurt-based institution to act, particularly as inflation was around the ECB’s target before the conflict.
“The weakening of the outlook for demand, particularly for private consumption, reinforces the case for the ECB to be patient,” it said.
Eurozone economic growth slowed to 0.1% in the first three months of the year, official data showed Thursday, while figures since the outbreak of the war have pointed to falling consumer and investor confidence and weakening business activity
The U.S. economy regained some momentum at the start of 2026, expanding at a modest 2% pace from January through March after recovering from last fall’s 43-day federal government shutdown. But the outlook appears to be clouded by the Iran war.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP), the nation’s output of goods and services, rebounded from a lackluster 0.5% expansion the last three months of 2025.
The federal government’s spending and investment grew at a 9.3% annual rate in the first quarter, adding more than half a percentage point to growth after lopping off 1.16 percentage points in fourth-quarter 2025.
Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of U.S. economic activity, slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter from 1.9% at the end of 2025. Spending on goods, including food and clothing, fell slightly. Spending on services slowed.
But business investment, likely driven by spending in artificial intelligence, rose at an 8.7% pace.
A weak housing market continues to weigh on the economy. Residential investment fell at an 8% annual pace – the fifth straight quarterly drop and the biggest since the end of 2022.
Excluding housing, nonresidential investment surged 10.4%, the biggest jump in nearly three years.
An uptick in imports, which rose at an annual rate of 21.4% from January-March, slashed more than 2.6 percentage points off first-quarter growth.
“This is a split-screen economy,” Heather Long, chief economist at the Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote.
“Companies and investors involved in AI are on fire. Meanwhile, middle and moderate-income households are struggling with high gas prices … Consumption is slowing as people are struggling to manage all their bills and growing more concerned about the future.”
Still, a category within the GDP data that measures the economy’s underlying strength grew at a solid 2.5% clip, accelerating from 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. This category includes consumer spending and private investment, but excludes volatile items like exports, inventories and government spending.
The first quarter included about a month of the clash in Iran. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz through which a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. That has driven energy prices higher, fueling inflation and hurting consumers. The Federal Reserve, announcing Wednesday that it was keeping its benchmark interest unchanged, cited “a high level of uncertainty″ arising from the conflict.
Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, did not even bother to forecast first-quarter GDP growth.
“The truth is that we do not have any defensible basis for trying to project how these indicators will print,” Weinberg wrote in a commentary Monday.
“President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has led to a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. We do not know how to model the impact of that event, as we have never seen anything quite like it.″
Thursday’s report was the first of three Commerce Department estimates.
In last week’s policy meeting, the Turkish central bank suggested that inflation in April is being driven mainly by rising energy and food prices, while the underlying trend is expected to increase slightly.
The summary of the bank’s policy-setting meeting at which it kept interest rates steady was shared on Thursday.
Warning of “uncertainties” amid geopolitical developments and elevated energy prices in March and April, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) said, “Leading indicators suggest that in April, consumer prices will be driven by energy and food prices, whereas the underlying trend will increase slightly.”
“Domestic energy prices posted a substantial rise on account of price increases in natural gas and electricity for households,” it added.
Official inflation data is due to be released next week. The annual inflation rate in March was at 30.87%, compared to 31.53% in February.
“Brent crude oil prices generally trended upward in both March and April,” the bank noted.
On Thursday, the prices reached the highest since the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran started two months ago, touching briefly $126 before easing.
Among others, the CBRT also pointed out that risks related to the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with the search for alternative routes, “led to longer lead times, and security risks caused higher insurance premiums and freight rates in March. “
Moreover, it said that inflation expectations and pricing behavior continue to pose risks to the disinflation process, as it cited that inflation expectations rose in April.
“Given the size of price volatility and supply constraints in commodities, the uncertainty over the inflation outlook has substantially increased. The effects of these developments and domestic energy prices on the inflation outlook through the cost channel and economic activity are being closely monitored,” it said.
The central bank also said it would tighten its policy stance “if there is a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook.”
“In case of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, which can also be driven by the recent developments, the monetary policy stance will be tightened. The committee reiterated that it remains highly attentive to upside risks on inflation.”
Surging oil prices driven by the Iran war pushed Europe’s inflation higher in April, while economic growth remained sluggish, according to official data on Thursday, creating a troubling mix for both consumers and policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB).
Annual inflation in the eurozone – the 21 countries that use the shared euro currency – rose to 3% from 2.6% in March, fueled by a 10.9% increase in energy prices, the European Union statistical agency Eurostat reported Thursday.
Crude oil traded above $120 per barrel on Thursday, up from around $73 before the outbreak of the war on Feb. 28.
Meanwhile, eurozone growth for the first three months of the year disappointed, with a marginal increase in economic output of 0.1% over the quarter before.
The war is dealing a huge shock to the global economy because Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which around 20% of the world’s oil formerly passed on its way to customers from producers in the Persian Gulf. The surge in oil prices has been quickly reflected at gas stations and in the price of jet fuel.
Rising inflation has raised concerns that it may become built into the economy along with slow or nonexistent growth, a policy conundrum dubbed “stagflation” that leaves central banks like the ECB with few attractive choices. The usual antidote to inflation is for the central bank to raise its benchmark interest rate, but that can slow growth by raising credit costs for buying things.
ECB policymakers left their benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, even though the annual rate of inflation is now clearly above the bank’s target of 2%. The bank’s benchmark rate has been unchanged at 2% since June 2025.
ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a post-decision news conference at the bank’s headquarters in Frankfurt that the bank’s governing council had debated a rate rise on Thursday. She said the council would revisit the bank’s stance with new information at the next meeting on June 11, without committing to any particular path for rates.
Although some economists have used the term recently, she said the eurozone was not facing stagflation like that afflicting Western economies after the oil shocks of the 1970s.
Lagarde said the situation today was not comparable, with inflation less ingrained and a stronger labor market supporting an economy that is not in recession. She said the term was “something that I park in the ’70s… this is not something we’re seeing for the moment.”
“We don’t apply that flashy term, ‘stagflation,’ to the circumstances that we have.”
Western economies suffered high inflation after twin oil shocks from the 1973 Arab oil embargo against the US and the 1979 Iranian revolution – bad memories revived by the Hormuz closure.
Other central banks are also on pause. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) both left rates unchanged at meetings this week, and the Bank of England (BoE) also held steady on Thursday.
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