Economy
Hot weather hurts crops across Asian economies hit by Iran war
Increasingly hot and dry weather is disrupting crop planting across Asia, sparking concerns about food supplies in the world’s most populous region, and an expected severe El Niño could inflict further damage.
From India’s grain-producing northwestern plains to Australia’s eastern wheat belt, and from Thailand’s rice fields to Indonesia’s vast palm oil plantations, hot weather and below-normal rains are hurting crops and forcing farmers to reduce planting, farmers, analysts and traders said.
El Nino-driven dryness is a double blow for farmers already grappling with fertiliser and diesel shortages caused by the Iran war.
Wheat prices have risen about 20% since the start of 2026, largely on concerns over drought in key U.S. growing regions. Rice prices at major Southeast Asian export hubs have climbed around 15% over the past month on rising production costs and fears of tighter supplies.
One of the strongest El Ninos on record is widely expected to develop in the second half of 2026, bringing hot-dry weather to Asia and excessive rains to the Americas, with global climate change making things worse.
“The El Nino impact globally starts with Southeast Asia, India, Australia, before it has wider implications downstream in North America and South America,” said Chris Hyde, a U.S.-based meteorologist at satellite data and imagery firm SkyFi.
Hyde said early signs of drought are already visible on the company’s high-resolution imagery platform, across parts of Asia.
Hot-dry weather hit farms
In India, the meteorological department last week further reduced its forecast for the four-month monsoon season, which delivers about 70% of annual rains.
“With temperatures across most parts of the country remaining well above normal, conditions are currently unfavourable for the timely sowing of summer crops,” said one New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.
“Planting is likely to be delayed due to the late onset of the monsoon, but greater concern lies in the possibility of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells after its arrival.”
India mainly grows rice, soybeans, pulses, sugarcane and corn in the summer season.
For Southeast Asian countries, dryness is hitting rice and palm oil yields in some areas.
“Everybody is worried (about drought), it’s risky,” said Nerawat Oramah, a 47-year-old farmer in central Thailand’s Chainat province.
“For my second harvest, I have to wait and see the situation. It’s a risk for everyone (if there is not enough water), there will only be one harvest.”
Thailand and the Philippines plant their main rice crops in June-July, while Vietnam and Indonesia are now sowing their second-season crops.
Indonesia’s most populous Java island and some areas in northern Sumatra, south Kalimantan and Sulawesi have not experienced any rain for more than 10 days, according to the country’s meteorological agency, with medium to low rainfall expected in June.
Higher prices
Rice prices are edging up even though India, which accounts for 40% of global exports, is sitting on ample supplies after years of near-record harvests.
“There is a clear indication of crisis as rice prices have moved substantially higher without any major shortage,” said one Singapore-based trader at an international trading company, adding Thai rice prices have climbed around 15% in the past month.
“India has a huge rice stockpile, several times more than what it needs. But the thinking is that very soon India will start looking at these stocks as a critical asset and may introduce some sort of export curbs if we see problems with the early part of the monsoon.”
However, KKP Research, a unit of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Thailand, said some of the impact of the dryness could be cushioned by strong reservoir levels.
“What we are more concerned about is fertiliser supply,” the bank said in a note to Reuters. “We estimate that a fertiliser shortage, if it occurs, could reduce rice production by up to 15-20% in the worst case.”
Recent rains over parched Australian farmland have triggered late wheat sowing, but growers are wary of the El Nino in the coming months that could hit yields.
The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting that many cropping areas across New South Wales and Queensland will see between 20 and 40 millimetres less rain than usual over the next three months.
John Lowe, a farmer near Burcher in central New South Wales, said his total cropping area is still around 30% smaller than it could have been.
El Nino is likely to be neutral for China and the Black Sea region, while bringing more rains to the Americas.
“Statistically speaking, there is not much correlation with weather in the U.S. and El Nino, during the summer,” said Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and president of World Weather Inc.
“In a lot of years, we can come up with a little bit more moisture in an El Nino summer. But that does not really mean above-normal rainfall.”
Türkiye’s retail sales growth moderated in April to the lowest level in just over a year, following months of strong momentum, official data showed on Tuesday.
The volume of retail sales rose 11.4% year-over-year in April, said the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
This was much slower than the 21.7% surge in March, which was the fastest growth since February 2024. Moreover, the latest rate of expansion was the weakest since March 2025, when sales climbed 10.3%.
Meanwhile, total trade sales volume edged up 0.1% on an annual basis, the data showed.
Apart from retail sales, wholesale trade sales fell 3.3%, while the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles volume decreased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year.
On a monthly basis, on the other hand, retail sales fell 1.7% in April while trade sales volume decreased 2.7%, as per TurkStat.
Annual sales growth in nonfood products, excluding fuel, slowed to 14.5% from 29.5%, while growth in food products improved to 7.6% from 7.4%. Sales of automotive fuel were 2.7% higher than a year earlier.
Data also showed that online retail grew 17.9% from last year, though slower than the 21.1% increase registered in March.
Solar electricity generation in Türkiye reached its highest level of the year on Monday, according to official figures.
The output reached 184,466 megawatts, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAŞ) data released on Tuesday showed.
Daily electricity consumption in Türkiye increased by around 18.2% on Monday compared to the previous day, totaling 972,052 megawatt-hours.
Electricity production amounted to 966,812 megawatt-hours, marking a rise of 16.9% compared to Sunday.
Electricity production from dam-based hydro plants accounted for around 25.7% of total generation, while solar and imported coal plants contributed 19% and 11.5%, respectively.
On Monday, the country’s electricity exports totaled 8,159 megawatt-hours, while imports amounted to 2,785 megawatt-hours.
Türkiye’s installed electricity capacity rose to 125,410 megawatts (MW) as of the end of April, driven by a rapid growth in renewable sources such as solar and wind.
Renewables accounted for 62.5% of that. Solar energy has been the fastest-growing segment, having reached 26,769 MW and accounting for 21.3% of total installed capacity.
Wind power increased to 15,075 MW, representing 12% of total capacity.
Türkiye aims to reach a combined 120,000 MW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2035, as is seeks to gradually reduce its carbon emissions to zero by 2053.
Housing prices in Türkiye extended their decline in real terms in May, despite continued growth in sales volumes, as elevated borrowing costs weigh on the property market.
Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed on Tuesday that the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose 1.7% month-over-month in May and was up 24.5% from a year earlier in nominal terms. The annual nominal increase was the weakest since May 2020.
Adjusted for inflation, however, house prices fell 6.1% year-over-year, marking the 27th monthly real decline in the past 28 months.
Inflation in Türkiye edged up to 32.6% in May from 32.4% in April.
Analysts said the divergence between stronger sales volumes and weaker real prices reflected a market driven more by deferred demand than fresh speculative interest.
“Under normal circumstances, the recovery in transaction volumes would be expected to feed more strongly into prices. The acceleration in real declines was therefore somewhat surprising,” said Ali Hepşen, a professor at Istanbul University’s Faculty of Business Administration.
He said many buyers who postponed purchases in 2023 and 2024 had returned to the market, boosting sales without generating the same degree of upward pressure on prices.
Latest data showed nationwide house sales rose 2.6% from a year ago in April, while the four-month figure jumped 0.5%.
After recording a 1.4% annual real increase in January 2024, house prices slipped back into negative territory in February of that year and have remained below inflation ever since, with the exception of a marginal 0.3% real increase in November 2025.
The pace of real declines has accelerated in recent months, widening from 1.4% in December to 6.1% in May. The annual real decrease stood at 2.3% in January, 3.9% in February, 3.4% in March and 4.3% in April.
“High interest rates remain the main factor limiting prices,” Hepşen said. “Mortgage costs are still elevated, meaning cash buyers continue to dominate the market. This leads to more controlled price movements.”
He added that the current trend also represented a rebalancing after the sharp increases seen in previous years, when house prices had significantly outpaced inflation.
“Prices are increasing in nominal terms, but because the overall price level is rising more quickly, the decline continues in real terms.”
Last week, Türkiye’s central bank left its key interest rate at 37%, as expected, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting, as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran war.
Since the conflict started at the end of February, the CBRT has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024.
In its quarterly inflation report in May, the bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%. It sees it falling to 15% in 2027 and to 9% by the end of 2028.
Hepşen said he did not expect a return to strong double-digit real price gains unless mortgage rates declined materially.
How long the decline in real housing prices will continue depends largely on the inflation and interest rate outlook, he added.
Under current conditions, Hepşen said it is likely that house prices will continue to underperform inflation at least until the end of 2026.
“Because today, credit demand, the main factor that would push housing prices higher, is still not strong enough,” he noted.
“We foresee that without a lasting decline in interest rates, the return to real price increases will remain limited.”
Real estate economist Ahmet Büyükduman said house prices and real interest rates historically moved in opposite directions.
“They (house prices and real interest rates) resemble two ends of a seesaw,” Büyükduman said. “When real interest rates rise, housing prices remain below inflation and decline in real terms.”
As long as the current monetary policy stance and high real interest rates remain in place, he said house price increases are likely to stay below inflation.
“I think the increase in housing prices will remain below inflation over the next year as well,” Büyükduman added.
Hyundai said on Tuesday it would strengthen its investment in the production of its upcoming IONIQ 3 electric vehicle in Türkiye with a new battery assembly facility.
The mass production of the IONIQ 3, which is expected to begin in August, will mark the South Korean carmaker’s first EV production in Europe.
It will also make it the first foreign automaker to manufacture battery-powered cars in Türkiye.
The company has allocated 55 million euros ($63.81 million) of its total 715 million euro investment package to the battery plant, Hyundai Motor Türkiye said in a statement.
The facility will assemble battery packs using automated systems in cooperation with Hyundai Mobis.
The investment is expected to create more than 300 jobs in its initial phase and contribute to the development of expertise needed by Türkiye’s electric vehicle sector, the statement read.
The company said it expects IONIQ 3 output to reach 27,000 units this year and exceed 40,000 vehicles in 2027.
The battery factory, built on a 30,000-square-meter (nearly 98,500-foot) site, will house 27 robots and feature automated packaging processes designed to minimize manual handling in production.
Nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) battery cells will be sourced from Hungary, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs for shorter-range variants will be supplied entirely from China.
Hyundai will become the second EV producer in Türkiye after homegrown brand Togg, and the first among foreign automakers.
Hyundai’s plant in northwestern city of Izmit has an annual production capacity of 245,000 vehicles and currently produces the i20 and Bayon models.
IONIQ 3 is scheduled to roll off production lines in August before going on sale in the domestic market in September with two battery and powertrain options.
Hyundai Motor Türkiye’s Sales, Marketing and After-Sales General Manager Murat Berkel called the new battery investment a “source of great pride.”
“This investment, which is highly significant both for our country and for the Turkish automotive industry, will contribute to our brand’s growth in Türkiye,” Berkel noted.
The Izmit facility, which is also Hyundai’s first overseas manufacturing plant, has produced 3.3 million vehicles since operations began in 1997.
Hyundai Motor Group plans to invest $90 billion globally by 2030, launching 21 fully electric and 13 hybrid models.
Germany on Tuesday formally rejected UniCredit’s offer for Commerzbank shares, citing a low price and concerns about what it called the Italian lender’s aggressive approach.
UniCredit’s initial offer period for Commerzbank shares is winding down, with both banks digging in their heels in the months-long battle for control of one of Germany’s most important lenders.
On Monday, the Italian bank hailed the fact that it had exceeded the 30% threshold it had set for this takeover bid. The Milan-based lender launched its bid, valued at 35 billion euros ($40.6 billion), in early May to gain control of its German rival and cement its status as a European heavyweight.
The German government holds a 12% stake in Commerzbank acquired in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis and has long objected to UniCredit’s campaign for a tie-up.
“Accepting the offer was already not an option from a financial point of view, as it does not include an appropriate premium on the current share price of Commerzbank’s shares,” the country’s finance agency said on Tuesday.
Despite Berlin’s position, UniCredit could still win control of the German bank, but the government’s stake gives it seats on Commerzbank’s supervisory board, which appoints management and helps oversee its strategy.
Financial Market Stabilization Fund, which manages the government’s holdings, also said that it supported Commerzbank’s independence, and noted that the bank played a critical role in financing medium-sized Mittelstand companies and was an integral player in Frankfurt, the nation’s financial hub.
“Both must continue to be ensured in the future,” it said.
Separately, Frankfurt prosecutors on Tuesday confirmed that they had begun a preliminary investigation into “possible market manipulation” related to the offer, without providing details.
It follows a criminal complaint filed by Commerzbank’s workers’ council that reached prosecutors on Sunday. The employee group had communicated to staff that they would file the complaint against unspecified persons amid questions about UniCredit’s acquisition of Commerzbank shares at a below-market rate.
UniCredit said in a statement that it was aware of the matter and that the prosecutors’ response was “in line with protocol when such complaints are filed.”
In Tuesday’s trading, Commerzbank shares slipped below the price implied by UniCredit’s buyout offer, after trading consistently above that level since the bid was launched and rendering Italian bank’s offer relatively unattractive.
Shares in Commerzbank were trading at 36.53 euros by 0812 GMT, while those of UniCredit were at 76.97 euros. With an exchange ratio of 0.485 new UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share tendered, the Italian bank’s bid values Commerzbank at 37.33 euros a share.
The offer ends on Tuesday but will extend for a further 15 days from June 20.
If the offer succeeds and is approved by the European Central Bank (ECB), it should mainly allow UniCredit to gradually increase its stake in Commerzbank and merge it with its German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank.
In particular, the Milan-based bank is proposing to cut back Commerzbank’s international network, deemed too complex and inefficient, and refocus the bank on its activities in Germany.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in May the bid was destroying “trust” in Germany’s second-largest private bank.
Seeking to fend off the advances, Commerzbank’s CEO Bettina Orlopp unveiled a strategic plan to strengthen profitability through 2030, including job cuts to become leaner and more attractive to shareholders.
UniCredit has meanwhile asserted that by surpassing the 30% threshold of voting rights, it should be allowed to appoint all of the shareholder representatives to the supervisory board, where two representatives of the German state currently sit.
Orlopp has contested that position, pointing to an agreement with Berlin that guarantees Commerzbank the power to propose the state’s representatives to the board.
Germany’s Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche is expected to visit Türkiye later this week for high-level talks on strengthening trade and energy cooperation, according to her ministry on Monday.
“Türkiye is a strategically important partner for Germany,” ministry spokesperson Susanne Ungrad told reporters in Berlin.
“The visit on Thursday and Friday will focus on the German-Turkish economic and energy partnership,” she said.
Reiche is scheduled to attend meetings of the Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO) and the German-Turkish Energy Forum, both long-standing platforms for deepening bilateral ties.
She will also hold direct talks with Turkish ministerial counterparts, accompanied by around 30 business leaders from key economic and energy sectors.
Germany is one of Türkiye’s largest economic partners and remained its top export destination in 2025.
Supported by more than 8,000 companies with German capital that are registered and active in the country, bilateral trade exceeded $52 billion last year.
During German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara in October 2025, the two countries announced their joint ambition to increase bilateral trade to over $60 billion in the near future.
Statement on ‘e-Lawyer application’ from the Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek
Alphabet proposals for Kazakh and Kyrgyz Turkish languages were approved within the framework of the Common Turkish Alphabet.
Vice President Yılmaz: The world is in transition, an opportunity for countries that follow good strategies
Statement on ‘e-Lawyer application’ from the Minister of Justice Akın Gürlek
Alphabet proposals for Kazakh and Kyrgyz Turkish languages were approved within the framework of the Common Turkish Alphabet.
Vice President Yılmaz: The world is in transition, an opportunity for countries that follow good strategies
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoAK Party Spokesperson Ömer Çelik’s reaction to AP Akın Gürlek: We reject his targeting of Türkiye with ‘political bigotry’
-
Daily Agenda3 days ago1097 houses found their owners in Kocaeli
-
Sports2 days agoKnicks break 53-year NBA title jinx after Brunson sinks 45
-
Daily Agenda3 days agoAnatomy of a Slander: Its Digital Base is FETO, Its Square is CHP! How was Operation 128 Billion Dollars designed?
-
Daily Agenda2 days agoBREAKING NEWS I President Erdoğan’s call for peace and stability: “We will continue to contribute to permanent solutions”
-
Sports2 days agoAustralia’s defense masterclass mars Türkiye’s World Cup return
-
Daily Agenda3 days agoGülistan Doku’s body was searched at 200 locations
-
Daily Agenda3 days agoMathematics made me sweat in LGS, paragraphs were difficult