U.S. consumer inflation eased in June more than analysts forecasted, government data showed Tuesday, as energy prices declined momentarily last month following a preliminary memorandum between U.S. and Iran deal to end the Middle East war.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.5% on a yearly basis, down from a 4.2% increase in May, said the Labor Department.

The figure marked a pullback from a three-year high in inflation.

Analysts had anticipated a larger 3.8% uptick, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

But the cooldown is unlikely to entirely ease worries over costs.

Renewed hostilities, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent declaration that a cease-fire was over in the Middle East, have been pushing oil prices upwards again.

Later Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh will likely be grilled over progress on lowering inflation in the world’s biggest economy when he appears before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m. eastern time (2:00 p.m. GMT).

Warsh, in prepared remarks released Tuesday, is set to vow that the central bank will rid the U.S. of a years-long “inflation surge.”

“The Fed’s number one objective is to get monetary policy right – or as near to it as we possibly can,” he says in his remarks.

“If we get policy right – and we will – the inflation surge of the last five years will be a thing of the past.”

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President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States would impose a 20% charge on cargo shipments using the Strait of Hormuz after a cease-fire with Iran collapsed amid a dispute over Tehran’s efforts to retain control of the key waterway.

Iran shut down the 34 km (21 ​mile) wide strait that was the main route for a fifth of world oil supplies and other vital goods including fertilizers when the U.S. and Israel attacked it on Feb. 28, causing a global energy shock.

This ⁠is why it matters, how Trump’s and Iran’s stances differ, and how ⁠it affects the rest of the world:

Has U.S. shifted position on charging Hormuz fees?

As recently as June 25, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said when meeting Gulf states and in response to Iran’s demand for fees that “no country on Earth has ​the right to charge for the use of international waterways” and that fees for shipping would never be ​part ⁠of any deal.

But Trump has previously mooted the possibility of the U.S. charging tolls if the deal with Iran were to break down.

“There will be NO TOLLS in the Hormuz Strait for 60 days during the Cease Fire Period, and there will be NO TOLLS after the 60 day period has expired, unless they are imposed by and for the United States of America, should the deal not be completed, for services rendered as the Guardian Angel to the countries of the Middle East for purposes of both past, present, and future reimbursement of costs,” he wrote in a social media post on June 20.

With the cease-fire in tatters, he now appears to have reverted to his earlier stance.

“The U.S.A. will be, from this point forward, known as ‘THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT,’ but as such, and as a matter of FAIRNESS, will be reimbursed, at the rate of 20% on all cargo shipped,” he said in a social media post on Monday.

Trump has not explained how such charges would be imposed nor what legal authority ⁠he ⁠could use to demand them for passage.

How is Trump’s demand for toll different from Iran’s?

Iran has made its lasting control over the strait, whose waters it shares with Oman, its main priority in negotiations, seeing it as its strongest strategic lever with the outside world and the best guarantee of its security against future attacks.

It believes Washington had accepted this in the wording of last month’s interim deal, which said Iran “will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only.”

However, the U.S. regarded that language as meaning only that Iran should facilitate safe passage for vessels and not impose restrictions backed up by force.

During the war, Tehran set up the Persian Gulf Strait Authority that it says any vessel passing through the waterway must coordinate with and it insists ships should ⁠only transit near the Iranian shoreline. It has targeted vessels trying to pass along the Omani shore that did not seek its permission.

It has said it may eventually charge fees for passage but has not detailed what these would be.

What was situation before war and is it legal for anyone to charge for using Hormuz?

The strait is ​made up of the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, with the maritime boundary running along the middle.

The UNCLOS maritime convention governing international sea law ​says states bordering straits cannot demand payment simply for permission to pass through.

However, they can impose limited fees for specific services such as piloting, tugging or port services, though these may not be levied more heavily on vessels from any particular countries.

Neither Iran nor the United ⁠States are signatories to UNCLOS, ‌but it is ‌widely regarded as international maritime law and Hormuz as an international strait.

In 1968, Iran and Oman agreed ⁠on a traffic scheme with the International Maritime Organization (IMO) under which major vessels would use sea ‌lanes along the middle of the strait.

Iranian mine-laying during the war has now made such passage unsafe according to the IMO.

Would other countries accept tolls or fees for transiting Hormuz?

No such ​unilateral move to demand fees to traverse a ⁠strait has been made in modern history, shipping industry officials said.

Oman has held dialogue with Iran on the issue. ⁠It issued guidance last month for vessels transiting the strait through its water that did not require any fees. Gulf states, whose main access to the ⁠high seas for their vital energy exports ​lies through the strait, are particularly concerned about fees.

Major consumers of Gulf energy products and fertilizers may also be alarmed, especially by Trump’s proposal for a 20% surcharge on cargoes. That could push up global oil prices significantly.

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U.S. President Donald Trump reversed Tuesday his plans to charge a 20% toll on all cargo going through the Strait of Hormuz as part of the ​conflict ⁠with Iran a day after he announced it.

Instead, Trump said Middle Eastern countries will make investment and trade deals with the U.S.

U.S. had carried out waves of attacks for the third night in a row after Iran said it had closed the strait, prompting Trump on Monday to reinstate a blockade of Iranian shipping and propose the fee.

But just a little under five hours before the fee had been due to come into effect at 2000 GMT, Trump said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.

“Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

The president said the investments “will be MASSIVE,” though it’s unclear if these would be new commitments relative to what Trump announced after a visit last year to the Middle East.

Oil futures prices pared their gains after the post after rising earlier on Tuesday. The worsening attacks had increased doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month would lead ⁠to a permanent halt in the war, which has disrupted global energy supplies and raised fears of a rise in inflation globally.

Iran had hit back by attacking a U.S. ​military base in Jordan with ballistic missiles, while Bahrain, which hosts a U.S. ​naval base, said it had fended off an Iranian aerial attack. Jordan said it had shot down four ballistic missiles and explosions were ⁠heard ‌in Manama, ‌Bahrain’s capital.

Before the war, about a fifth of ⁠global oil and gas traffic passed through ‌Hormuz daily. If the U.S. were to impose a 20% fee, it could generate around $240 ​million a day.

The U.N. shipping ⁠agency said it opposed any fees for straits used ⁠in international navigation and that there was no legal basis for introducing ⁠mandatory tolls on ​strait transits.

Later on Thursday, Trump said he did not ​think anybody ​should be ⁠able to charge a fee for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

“I don’t ⁠like the concept of a fee, but ​at the same time, it’s ​not fair that we’re ⁠protecting ‌this ‌strait for ⁠the entire world,” ‌he said ​in remarks to ⁠reporters.

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Recent heat waves across the European continent, which have pushed temperatures above seasonal norms, are boosting demand for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) products, driving double-digit growth in Turkish exports to the region.

Extreme heat waves across the continent are reshaping daily life and demand for climate control products, which were once deemed luxury items.

Europe appears to be particularly exposed and vulnerable to climate change, with many countries, including the U.K., France and Spain, witnessing heat waves in recent weeks, most notably at the end of June.

European countries have reported more than 10,000 excess deaths during the record-breaking heatwave that engulfed the west of the continent in late June, official data showed recently.

The vast majority, or more ​than 9,000, were among people aged 65 and above, according to data published by ‌EuroMOMO, a network backed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the World Health Organization (WHO).

Extreme heat can kill by causing heat stroke or aggravating cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, with older people among the most ​vulnerable.

The rise in air temperatures has also renewed debate about air conditioning (AC) systems in Europe, with ACs now seen as an essential need during the summer months.

Investments in cooling solutions in many EU countries accelerated in residential and public buildings, workplaces, health care facilities, and educational institutions.

Consequently, European markets affected by heat waves increased orders for energy-efficient HVAC systems, including those from Türkiye.

Germany top market

Germany was the largest European market for Turkish HVAC exports in June, totaling $71.4 million, up 19.9% year-over-year, according to data compiled by Anadolu Agency (AA) from the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).

Germany was followed by Italy, where exports rose 35.1% to $30.5 million, France, up 46.3% to $28.3 million, Poland, where exports increased 10.3% to $23.7 million, and Spain, where they rose 29.3% to $23 million, the data showed.

Finland recorded the largest increase in Turkish HVAC exports at a whopping 130.7% surge, followed by Croatia with 97.3%, Latvia with 96.1%, Luxembourg with 83.6%, and Malta with 74%.

Osman Baştaş, chair of the Turkish HVAC-R Exporters Association (ISIB), told AA that rising exports confirmed the Turkish climate control industry’s strong position and competitive edge in global markets, due to demand particularly driven by the EU, as well as by the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.

Baştaş said promotional campaigns targeting the U.S. and other alternative markets also had a positive impact on the sector’s exports.

“Turkish manufacturers gained a massive advantage in global markets thanks to high-quality production, flexible manufacturing capabilities, fast delivery, and a robust engineering infrastructure,” he said.

“The restructuring process in supply chains presented great opportunities for our sector due to Türkiye’s geographical proximity to Europe.”

Rising demand

Baştaş said Turkish firms achieved this success thanks to green transition investments, which have become “key competitive criteria.”

“The demand in many markets, especially in Europe, is rising rapidly for systems that are energy-efficient with a low carbon footprint and pro-environment refrigerants, something Turkish firms have been investing in for quite some time, and we expect the impact of the green transition to drive exports even further in the coming period,” he said.

Baştaş also stated that the effects of climate change have rendered climate control systems a basic necessity, not only for residential buildings but also for shopping malls, hospitals, hotels, factories, logistics warehouses, and especially artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

“Data centers became a growing sector as AI and digitalization gained momentum, and the demand for advanced, energy-efficient HVAC systems that provide precise temperature and humidity control in these facilities is rising day by day,” he said.

“Türkiye is among those benefiting most from this transition as we see rising export demand for high-energy-efficient HVAC systems, heat pumps, ventilation equipment, heat recovery systems, automation solutions, industrial cooling systems, and data center cooling technologies,” he added.

Baştaş stated that Türkiye has become one of the world’s leading HVAC manufacturing hubs thanks to its wide product range, robust supporting industries, high production capacity, price advantage and compliance with international standards.

“Many global brands operating in developed markets are manufacturing in Türkiye, underscoring the sector’s global credibility,” he said.

He said the sector’s export performance in the first half of the year had fueled optimism in the sector for the second half, while signs such as the normalization of inventories in Europe, ongoing energy efficiency investments, and rising temperatures driving up demand for air conditioners are supporting the sector.

“We think the growth will continue in the second half as long as the current order flow and export performance are maintained,” he said.

“We also aim to raise our share in the export of high-value-added, energy-efficient, and sustainable products, and we think the rise of the Turkish HVAC industry in the global market will continue in the coming years,” he concluded.

Iraq has requested that the capacity of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline be nearly four times its current flows under a proposed one-year interim agreement with Türkiye, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Monday.

The decades-old pact that ​governed exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline is due to ​expire on July 27. Bayraktar said last week that the sides are set to sign a ​12-month agreement in the coming days to keep the pipeline open.

Türkiye had submitted a draft of a new long-term agreement to Baghdad, but negotiations had been delayed amid Iraq’s elections and the formation of a new government.

Bayraktar said the process had made it unlikely that a comprehensive deal could be concluded before the current pact expires.

“As an interim solution, we proposed signing a one-year oil transportation agreement … so that flows do not stop on July 27,” he told reporters after a Cabinet meeting.

He said the Iraqi side requested capacity of 750,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared with current volumes that stand at around 180,000 to 200,000 barrels per day.

“We said, ‘That’s fine, we will allocate 750,000 barrels per day to you.’ Within that year, we want to sign a new and more comprehensive Iraq-Türkiye Crude Oil Pipeline agreement,” he said.

Bayraktar said he discussed broader energy cooperation with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi during a visit to Baghdad last week, including the extension of the pipeline to Iraq’s southern oil hub of Basra and increasing its capacity to 2.5 million barrels per day.

He said Türkiye proposed opening the route to additional regional crude supplies.

“We said that if Kuwait wants to ship its oil through this pipeline, it should be able to do so. If others in the Gulf want to use it, they can as well,” Bayraktar said.

“We also discussed building a natural gas pipeline alongside it so Qatari gas or other regional gas sources could be transported,” he added.

The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline has been at the center of a long-running legal dispute between Türkiye and Iraq. A Paris-based arbitration court ruled for Ankara to pay $1.5 billion over what it said were unauthorized exports by Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) between 2014 and 2018.

Türkiye, on the other hand, said the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) had recognized most of Ankara’s demands.

Bayraktar said enforcement proceedings continue in Washington, where reciprocal claims and accrued interest will be calculated before determining whether either side owes compensation.

“There will be calculations, including interest, because our claims also date back many years. Once that is completed, the 2014-2018 period will be closed,” he said, adding that arbitration covering the period after 2018 remains ongoing.

He said the arbitration cases would form part of broader negotiations with Iraq and that several issues related to the proposed one-year agreement have yet to be resolved, while stressing Türkiye is ready to proceed once the remaining issues are settled.

Türkiye halted oil flows through the pipeline following the devastating February 2023 earthquakes, citing damage to the infrastructure. Operations resumed after repair work in September 2025.

However, exports were temporarily disrupted again during the Iran conflict before restarting on March 18.

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Türkiye’s exports to the European Union surged 4.7% to $54.5 billion (TL 2.56 trillion) in the January-June period as the bloc shifted its supply chains to more reliable and closer regions during the Middle East crisis, a head of a leading commercial chamber said.

The Turkish auto sector accounted for most of the exports to the EU in the first half of the year, with $15.57 billion, according to the Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM).

The auto industry was followed by chemicals and chemical products at $7.1 billion, ready-to-wear fashion and apparel at $4.7 billion, and ferrous and non-ferrous metals at $4.18 billion.

Germany was the recipient of the largest Turkish exports in January through June, with $10.1 billion, up 4.3%, followed by Italy with $6.8 billion, Spain with $5.6 billion, France with $5.3 billion, and Romania with $3.7 billion.

Exports from Istanbul, the largest source of exports in the first six months of the year, to Germany totaled $3.8 billion. While Germany received the most exports from Istanbul, the country was followed by Italy, Spain, France and the Netherlands, the data showed.

Romania continued to rank among the top five EU countries that were also the largest recipients of Turkish exports, while exports from Istanbul to the country reached $1.2 billion.

Türkiye and the EU’s economic relations have grown over the years, with mutual trade volume, investment flows and product integration.

The EU is Türkiye’s largest export market and a key market for Turkish manufacturers, especially those operating in sectors such as automotive, machinery, chemicals, textiles and home appliances.

The ongoing restructuring of global supply chains is further elevating Türkiye’s potential to become a reliable production and supply hub for Europe, while factors such as the green and digital transformation, the need to diversify supply chains, and the potential updating of the customs union could further deepen trade integration between Türkiye and the EU.

Şekib Avdagiç, president of the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO), told Anadolu Agency (AA) recently that European countries were shifting their supply chains to nearby, more reliable regions, making Türkiye “a natural hub for production and exports,” as the world was going through a challenging and uncertain period.

‘New global order’

“Türkiye-EU relations must be addressed with a new approach just as political and economic developments around the globe are shaping a new global order,” he said.

Avdagiç said Europe was restructuring not only its military deterrence but also its industrial capacity, supply chain resilience, and technological independence in this climate, while the bloc’s security and economic infrastructure had become increasingly intertwined.

He said Europe aimed to reduce its foreign dependence on defense and advanced manufacturing technologies, which, Avdagiç said, some member states might not prefer to acknowledge, leading to more selective and controlled technology-sharing models with Türkiye.

“The energy security aspect of Türkiye’s relationship with Europe is also one of the most critical layers as Türkiye stands out as a sort of transit country and a regional energy distribution hub, facilitating energy flows,” he said.

“The flow of energy from the Eastern Mediterranean, the Caspian Sea, and the Middle East to European markets has become a component of geopolitical stability, which has driven Türkiye-EU relations beyond the traditional foreign policy framework into a multilayered, strategic structure.”

“This structure, through an evolving base of security, economic, and industrial policies, is shaped not only by short-term needs but also by a foundation of structural interdependence,” he added.

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