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Türkiye to announce new 3-year economic blueprint on Monday

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Türkiye is set to unveil its new medium-term program (MTP) on Monday, outlining the country’s economic road map for the 2026-2028 period.

The program will be announced at a high-level meeting chaired by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, a statement by the Presidency said on Thursday.

The new MTP will outline the government’s updated policy mix amid challenges from inflationary pressures, global economic uncertainty and domestic fiscal needs. The program has been prepared jointly by the Presidency’s Strategy and Budget Directorate and the Treasury and Finance Ministry.

It is expected to set the framework for policies on inflation, growth, structural reforms, fiscal discipline and public spending.

The current program has been implemented since 2023 and has mainly centered around a tight monetary policy to curb inflation, which has more than halved over the last year and has lastly eased to below 33%.

The government has also vowed coordination of monetary, fiscal, income and supply-side policies. The new version is expected to give clues about the future course of policies as well as revised goals regarding growth, inflation and other macroeconomic indicators.

The MTP serves as a key blueprint for Türkiye’s economic management, laying out macroeconomic policies, key economic indicators, budget balances, borrowing needs and reform priorities.

It also provides a timeline for the implementation of reforms, while defining expenditure ceilings for public institutions. In addition to financial and price stability, the program is expected to highlight measures to boost growth, employment and competitiveness.

Targets in current MTP

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan last week said the program pursued over the past two and a half years had successfully passed “stress tests.”

“Viewing 2026 as the year of reforms in the economy, we are rapidly making our preparations concerning the reforms we will be implementing,” Erdoğan said.

The current three-year plan projects the economy to grow 4% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027.

Inflation was forecast at 17.5% for 2025, 9.7% for 2026, and 7% for 2027.

Other targets included:

Budget deficit-to-GDP ratio: 3.1% in 2025, narrowing to 2.5% by 2027.

Unemployment rate: 9.6% in 2025, 9.2% in 2026 and 8.8% in 2027.

Exports: $279.6 billion in 2025, $296.1 billion in 2026 and $319.6 billion in 2027.

Imports: $369 billion in 2025, rising to $390.6 billion in 2026 and $417.5 billion in 2027.

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Top oil executives drop from major energy event after Riyadh attacks

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Several top energy executives have been dropped from the schedule of a major summit in Riyadh, as Saudi authorities pressed ahead with the event Monday despite deadly attacks on the capital claimed ⁠by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

The chief executives of ⁠ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had all been expected at the event, which began on Sunday, but were no longer on the agenda that ​conference organizers released early Monday.

“To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, ​thank ⁠you,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who opened Monday’s session of the gathering for energy policy and industry.

“You know this country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart…Our gathering here does not mean the risk is gone.”

Prince Abdulaziz said the events of recent weeks were serious and that the kingdom’s response must be “equally serious.”

The WPC Energy Congress was originally scheduled for April of this year, but was postponed after the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Saudi Arabia was named host in October 2022, the first time the event, first held in Britain in 1933, has been held in the kingdom.

Chief executives of major energy companies are a regular fixture at WPC ⁠Energy events and had been scheduled to speak on stage this week about global oil and gas markets, energy security and the energy transition.

A BP spokesperson said the company had “made every effort to participate” ​in the conference. “Unfortunately, due to travel disruption we are unable to be there in person. ​We greatly value our long-standing partnerships across the region.”

The WPC ⁠Energy ‌Congress is ‌taking place this week at a conference center some 10 kilometers (6 ⁠miles) from Riyadh’s international airport, which has been ‌attacked four times in the last week.

One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a new attack ​on the airport on Sunday ⁠evening, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed ⁠by Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack ⁠in the kingdom in ​more than a decade.

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Cyberattack forces refrigerators to defrost at French supermarket chains

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Major French supermarket chains Intermarche and Cooperative U were hit by a cyberattack that caused their refrigerators to defrost, the companies said Monday.

Some 150-200 Intermarche shops were targeted, along with almost 100 Cooperative U outlets, in the attack, the two retailers told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Paris prosecutors confirmed the attack, which reportedly also hit other major chains, and also indicated it had prompted outbreaks of fire.

BFM TV said France’s largest supermarket chain E. Leclerc was also affected, with hackers “managing to remotely trigger the forced defrosting of the refrigeration systems in numerous stores.” E. Leclerc did not immediately confirm the information.

Those branches that were affected will have to “throw away all of the products” that are fresh and frozen, Intermarche told AFP.

Specialist French retail sector news website jebosseengrandedistribution.fr said other retail giants Carrefour Market and Monoprix were affected, but the companies have yet to confirm this.

‘Unprecedented’

The chief executive of Cooperative U, Dominique Schelcher, described the attack as “unprecedented” and confirmed the cyberattack had affected refrigeration systems since Sunday night.

“Targeting equipment essential to the preservation of fresh products and to the food supply of the French people is extremely serious and is unprecedented. It is unacceptable,” he wrote on the social media platform X.

He added that the company’s teams are “fully mobilized” to restore the situation as quickly as possible.

“An investigation will be necessary to shed full light on this attack,” he added.

The office of the Paris prosecutor confirmed to AFP that an investigation has been opened into “the large-scale cyberattack affecting the refrigerators of several major food retail chains across France.”

The probe will help “identify the victims and establish the link with the damage they reported in terms of foodstuff losses and the outbreak of fires,” the prosecutor’s office said.

Intermarche condemned the food waste and financial losses resulting from the attack, without providing figures, and warned there could be issues with insurance policies which do not “cover this type” of in-store incident.

BFM TV said temperatures were “altered remotely, resulting in the destruction of stocks of fresh and frozen products.”

The incident comes against the background of growing concern over the potential havoc that can be caused in Europe in all sectors by cyberattacks by malicious actors.

President Emmanuel Macron, a strong supporter of Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, last month ordered measures to protect France’s critical infrastructure from Russian “hybrid attacks.”

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Wind power could help Türkiye cut its gas import bill by $4 billion

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Türkiye could cut its annual natural gas import bill by about $4 billion with its wind power capacity of more than 16 gigawatts (GW), based on current energy prices, according to a senior industry executive.

Ibrahim Erden, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA), said every 1,000 megawatts (MW) of installed wind power capacity could reduce natural gas import costs by around $250 million annually.

Türkiye has generated more than 40% of its electricity from renewable sources in recent years, with the share exceeding 60% during the January-August period

The importance of wind energy has increasingly been viewed through the lens of energy security following the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.

Wind power offers a strategic advantage because it does not depend on imported fuels, critical transit routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, or international embargoes, Erden told Anadolu Agency (AA).

Strong manufacturing base

Türkiye has expanded its wind energy sector in recent years, supported by its strong wind potential and geographical advantages, he said.

Global wind power installations increased by 165,000 MW last year, including 2,000 MW in Türkiye, which accounted for around 1.2% of global installations, exceeding its approximately 1% share of the global economy, Erden added.

The country’s total installed electricity capacity stood at 126 GW, while onshore wind power capacity reached 15.9 GW as of the end of October, Erden said.

Erden also highlighted the growth of Türkiye’s domestic wind energy manufacturing base, supported by local component incentives introduced around 2009-2010.

The industry has developed a manufacturing cluster stretching from Izmir through Balikesir, Bursa and Yalova to Istanbul, building on Türkiye’s industrial expertise, including in automotive manufacturing, he said.

Türkiye earns around $2 billion-$2.5 billion annually from exports of wind turbines, components and raw materials, making it an important supplier to global wind energy manufacturers, Erden said.

Rising domestic natural gas production and expanding renewable energy capacity are expected to reduce Türkiye’s energy import bill over the long term, he added.

New investments planned

There are currently five wind tower manufacturers and two blade manufacturers in Türkiye, with the number of blade factories expected to rise to three as new investments come online, Erden said.

He added that 75% of manufacturers plan new investments or capacity expansions over the next three years.

These investments are expected to increase demand for skilled technicians and white-collar professionals, Erden said.

Ibrahim Erden, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA), speaks during an interview, Ankara, Oct. 8, 2026. (AA Photo)

Ibrahim Erden, president of the Turkish Wind Energy Association (TWEA), speaks during an interview, Ankara, Oct. 8, 2026. (AA Photo)

He also highlighted the role of Renewable Energy Resource Area (YEKA) projects in supporting domestic manufacturing, noting that locally produced components account for 65% of the turbines used in such projects.

The government aims to offer investors at least 2,500 MW of new wind and solar capacity annually through YEKA projects, he said, adding that predictable long-term targets and regular capacity allocations help strengthen investor confidence.

Türkiye’s position in global market

Türkiye ranked second in Europe for new onshore wind installations last year, sixth in installed wind capacity and fifth in wind industry manufacturing, Erden said.

Offshore wind projects are also expected to support further sector growth, he added.

Meanwhile, more than 70% of the global wind energy supply chain is concentrated in China, making the energy sector an increasingly important part of the economic competition between China, the United States and Europe, Erden said.

Türkiye is emerging as an alternative supplier, particularly for European markets, amid this competition, he added.

8 GW needed annually

Türkiye targets wind and solar installed capacity to reach 120 GW by 2035. The association aims for wind power to account for 48 GW of that total, he said.

Türkiye needs to install around 8,000 MW of new wind and solar capacity each year to reach its goal, Erden said.

Wind capacity alone would nearly triple electricity generation from wind, potentially increasing the annual value of avoided natural gas imports to around $10 billion-$12 billion under current price and generation assumptions, he added.

“This would mean an additional $6 billion-$8 billion in annual savings on top of the approximately $4 billion currently achievable,” Erden said.

He stressed that expanding grid infrastructure, speeding up permitting procedures and improving access to affordable financing would be essential to achieving the target.

Türkiye needs $24 billion in financing for grid investments alone under its National Energy Plan, while total financing signed or committed through work with international financial institutions stands at around $7.5 billion-$8 billion, Erden said.

Türkiye’s electricity demand is expected to rise significantly in the coming years as electric vehicles become more widespread, data centers expand, artificial intelligence applications grow and industrial electrification accelerates, he said.

This transformation makes expanding renewable energy capacity even more important, Erden added.

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Türkiye says in talks with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria on mega power link

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Türkiye is in talks with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria on a large electricity transmission link connecting the four countries, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Monday.

Ankara views regional connectivity as a way to diversify energy supplies, pursuing pipeline projects with neighbors such as Iraq and Syria while seeking to expand cross-border links for oil, natural gas and electricity.

“We are discussing a major mega interconnection project, an electricity transmission line project, between Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey,” Bayraktar told Anadolu Agency (AA).

Bayraktar was speaking on the sidelines of the 25th World Petroleum Council (WPC) Energy Congress in Riyadh. He gave no details on cost, capacity or timing.

He added that Türkiye wants to expand energy cooperation with other countries as well, naming Libya, Iraq, Pakistan and Uzbekistan in particular.

Türkiye’s investments in recent years have strengthened supply security in the region, according to Bayraktar.

He pointed to the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), TurkStream, the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline, which together allow energy to move in different directions.

He said the aim is to use this infrastructure more fully. “We want to use our existing lines and infrastructure at the highest level. We want our lines to be full,” he said. The Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day, and he said that capacity should be filled.

On natural gas, Bayraktar said Türkiye is considering filling spare capacity in TANAP with additional gas, so that more gas could be carried to Türkiye and, through it, to Europe.

He said Türkiye’s investments in regasification terminals and liquefied natural gas infrastructure also create openings to bring in more LNG and send it on to Europe.

He said Türkiye continues to pursue a strategy of diversifying its energy sources, and is developing projects meant to support supply security on a regional and European scale, as well as meeting its own needs.

‘One of biggest crises of modern times’

Bayraktar described world energy markets as facing one of the biggest crises of modern times. Despite this, he said, Türkiye has had no problems with the supply security of oil and oil products.

He said developments affecting production and supply in major oil producers such as Venezuela, Russia and Iran had increased pressure on global markets, and that price swings were hurting economies around the world.

“A prolonged contraction in energy markets could have serious consequences for the global economy, and international cooperation needs to be strengthened to get out of the crisis,” he said. Energy markets could only become more balanced once regional tensions and war come to an end, he added.

Solidarity with Saudi Arabia

Bayraktar also expressed solidarity with Saudi Arabia over recent attacks claimed by the Houthis on airports in the kingdom.

“We are here as Türkiye to show that we stand by our Saudi brothers,” he said. He said he hoped the attacks would end and that the Turkish people stand with the Saudi people.

Saudi authorities pressed ahead with the WPC Energy Congress despite the deadly attacks, although several top energy executives were dropped from the schedule for the event.

The chief executives of ⁠ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP had all been expected at the event, which began on Sunday, but were no longer on the agenda that ​conference organizers released early Monday.

“To everyone who traveled to Riyadh, ​thank ⁠you,” said Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, who opened Monday’s session of the gathering for energy policy and industry.

“You know this country is safe and that we hold your protection at whole heart… Our gathering here does not mean the risk is gone.”

Prince Abdulaziz said the events of recent weeks were serious and that the kingdom’s response must be “equally serious.”

The WPC Energy Congress was originally scheduled for April of this year, but was postponed after the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran began in late February. Saudi Arabia was named host in October 2022, the first time the event, first held in Britain in 1933, has been held in the kingdom.

Chief executives of major energy companies are a regular fixture at WPC ⁠Energy events and had been scheduled to speak on stage this week about global oil and gas markets, energy security and the energy transition.

The WPC ⁠Energy ‌Congress is ‌taking place this week at a conference center some 10 kilometers (6 ⁠miles) from Riyadh’s international airport, which has been ‌attacked four times in the last week.

One person was killed and nearly a dozen hurt in a new attack ​on the airport on Sunday ⁠evening, Saudi authorities reported, a day after a strike claimed ⁠by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, the deadliest attack ⁠in the kingdom in ​more than a decade.

Electrification at heart of COP31 agenda

Earlier on Monday, Bayraktar used a panel on the sidelines of the event in Riyadh to stress Türkiye’s aim to put electrification at the center of its agenda for the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31),

Bayraktar said Türkiye aimed to convey a message to the international community at COP31 on the need to advance electrification while addressing energy security and climate change.

Electricity demand in Türkiye is growing not only due to conventional consumption patterns but also emerging sources, including artificial intelligence-driven data centers, cooling needs, and desalination, he said.

Meeting this demand while advancing decarbonization would require investment across several areas, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, natural gas infrastructure and nuclear power, Bayraktar added.

Türkiye aims to achieve decarbonization by 2053 and is targeting 20 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power generation capacity by 2050, he said.

Renewables, nuclear power

Bayraktar said Türkiye was pursuing an ambitious renewable energy strategy covering solar, wind, offshore wind and geothermal power.

Energy efficiency was another key priority, with potential for improvements across the economy, including agriculture, transportation and buildings, he said.

Nuclear energy would also help Türkiye meet rising electricity demand while supporting its decarbonization and carbon neutrality goals, Bayraktar added.

He said the country’s aging coal-fired power infrastructure needed to be transformed toward cleaner alternatives, while securing natural gas was becoming increasingly difficult under current market conditions.

Türkiye continues to invest in oil and gas infrastructure, including pipelines, underground storage facilities and regasification terminals, as well as offshore exploration and production activities at home and abroad, he said.

Bayraktar also stressed the importance of critical minerals, saying the energy transition depended on effective strategies for developing mineral resources.

Energy security remains central to climate goals

Bayraktar said global energy markets had faced successive challenges since the COVID-19 pandemic, including supply chain disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, economic difficulties, high capital costs and the recent conflict involving Iran.

These developments have underscored the importance of resilient energy markets and international cooperation, he said.

Energy security would become a top priority, Bayraktar said, adding that countries needed more coherent policies to address energy security alongside climate change.



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AI ‘slow-moving tsunami’ but holds global growth, IMF chief says

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Strong investment in AI infrastructure is helping global growth to remain at around 3% with major benefits for Asia, but it ⁠also foreshadows a “slow-moving tsunami” that could massively disrupt labor markets, ⁠taxation and education, International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Monday.

The artificial intelligence investment boom was already delivering a “demand shock, an investment shock” that could boost growth in advanced Asian economies by a half to one full percentage point, and ​emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point, she said.

“AI, love it, hate it. It’s ​already ⁠here,” Georgieva said.

“That shift into higher gear is what is keeping the world economy growing at around 3%, despite the fact (that) we are being dragged down by the energy supply shock,” she told hundreds of participants on the first day of a weeklong set of meetings of the IMF and World Bank in the Thai capital.

The IMF in July forecast global growth at 3% in 2026. It will release an updated outlook on Tuesday.

Some 18,000 people are expected to attend the gathering this week, including finance officials from the IMF’s 191 members.

However, several finance ministers will skip the trip to focus on domestic priorities, including U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Spanish Finance Minister Arcadi España.

Also absent will be the finance ministers from Canada, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is struggling to contain an Ebola outbreak that has killed at least 4,000 people, said a source familiar with the plans.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, who heads ⁠the IMF’s ⁠steering committee, still planned to attend despite an operations halt at the Riyadh airport following deadly weekend attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, two sources said.

Asked about the negative impact of AI on jobs, Georgieva said that IMF research shows that some 40% of jobs will be either augmented, downgraded, or eliminated by AI, and as high as 60% in advanced economies.

This will have profound consequences for jobs, growth, education and even how governments generate revenue through taxation, given the expected shift from labor to capital.

An initial study showed that 10% of jobs in the US already required AI skills. While routine, repetitive jobs were shrinking, low-paying jobs were increasing in two lower-paying sectors, construction and data centers.

“It is a transformative technology. It so completely changes how we work, how we live,” she ⁠said, noting that an AI assistant now gave her a 30-second message about her schedule each morning.

The U.S., China and India are the most important producers in the AI supply chain, but many of the firms supplying hardware for the needed infrastructure are in Asia, Georgieva said, referencing Thailand, host of this year’s annual meetings.

AI ​impact on entry-level jobs

Singapore President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the same event, said governments should address how AI was reducing job opportunities for ​graduates.

“There is a particular problem that we have to address very soon … and that is that, the first rung in employment, your first job upon graduation, is now seeing less demand,” he said.

He said the world should also guard against AI ⁠resulting in a “new divergence” ‌in growth ‌and job creation between developing and advanced economies.

“AI is going to widen the divergence if we ⁠are too passive about it,” he said. “So we’ve got to do everything we ‌can to first use AI to create good jobs and to create jobs that can be done well by human beings, can allow them to ride up a career ladder ​despite AI.”

World Bank President Ajay Banga, who has ⁠made jobs a central focus of his presidency, told reporters that he was not convinced that entry-level ⁠jobs would be destroyed by AI, and that much of the disruption would take place in advanced economies that are building large ⁠AI models.

“In the emerging markets, we ​are not into large language models,” he said, adding that the World Bank was focused on leveraging “small AI” that does not require massive computing power to deliver productivity gains for farmers, health clinics and teachers.

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Milk faces more regulation than AI, Microsoft president says

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Artificial Intelligence needs urgent global regulation with independent evaluators able to vet new developments, the president of ​Microsoft said, warning that AI currently faces fewer safety requirements than milk.

In an interview with the ⁠BBC published on Monday, ⁠Brad Smith said a set of global safety rules needed to be in place, requiring a “victim” to be informed ​if their system is breached by a ​rogue ⁠AI agent and an “emergency brake” available.

He said there should also be a legal requirement for companies to write “incident reports.”

“We know how to do this for other products,” Smith said. “We should build on that knowledge and think about how to apply it to AI.”

“Right now, your washing machine is subject to more safety rules than AI. Every carton of milk that you see in the grocery store is subject to ⁠safety ⁠rules and inspection.”

Tech companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have started disclosing rogue or undesired behavior by AI agents as part of a global debate about the fast-advancing technology that has included researchers’ warnings of an eventual existential threat to humanity.

Some companies have called for AI development to slow down, but that has sparked a debate as to whether ⁠executives have ulterior motives such as setting rules that preserve the lead of their firms, pre-empting a broader government backlash, or simply slowing breakneck spending.

Microsoft’s ​Smith said the one country that was well-placed to lead the ​way on regulation of AI was Britain, due to the AI Security Institute, which was launched under ⁠former ‌prime minister, Rishi ‌Sunak.

Smith said officials in Washington viewed London ⁠very differently from how they viewed ‌Brussels, which regulates AI based on the level of risk via its ​AI Act.

Britain’s institute receives pre-deployment ⁠access under voluntary agreements with the major ⁠AI models, allowing it to assess their capabilities and risks.

AI ⁠Minister Kanishka Narayan ​has told Reuters that Britain would consider regulating advanced models if the current system proved insufficient.

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