Economy
Türkiye’s trade deficit narrows to 9-month low in May
Türkiye’s trade gap narrowed 15.7% on a yearly basis to $5.6 billion in May, mainly due to the calendar effect and fewer working days during the month, marking a nine-month low, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat said on Thursday.
The deficit decreased as both exports and imports fell in the month, with imports showing a starker decline of nearly 11%.
Announcing the preliminary foreign trade in Ankara, the minister said that exports dropped by 9.3% to $22.5 billion in May, while imports fell by 10.7% to $28.1 billion in the same period.
Last month had a long 9-day holiday that coincided with Eid al-Adha or Qurban Bayram, the second of two major holidays observed among Muslims, which reflected on the figures.
Starting his speech, Bolat noted that the world economy is going through a difficult period, with ongoing geopolitical challenges and disruptions in logistics chains, and he said that despite an environment where global economic growth forecasts are being revised downwards, Türkiye continues to show resilient performance in growth, employment, and exports.
He recalled the national income grew by 2.5% in the first quarter of the year, marking 23 consecutive quarters of growth, referring to the recently shared gross domestic product (GDP) data.
“In May 2025, we broke the monthly export record in the history of the republic with $24.8 billion. Official holidays in May naturally had a negative impact on exports; however, by also reducing imports and our foreign trade deficit, there was an improvement in the export-to-import coverage ratio,” the minister said.
Export-to-import coverage ratio surged by 1.2 points to 80.1% last month, reaching the highest level in the past 20 months.
“In May, exports reached $22.5 billion, a decrease of 9.3%. Our daily average exports reached $1.3 billion,” he added.
Bolat highlighted that there are no national or religious holidays in June, and noted that export figures are expected to increase this month compared to last year, and that higher numbers could be observed on an annualized basis.
He also stated that on May 22, a new all-time high daily export figure of $2.4 billion was reached, and added: “Our exports to Gulf countries dropped by 30% monthly in March due to shockwaves from conflicts. However, we recovered in April and saw an increase. A similar trend continues in May. Exports are actually increasing, but the calendar can sometimes have negative effects.”
Trade Ministry, in a written statement, separately said that despite the calendar effect, this May marked the third-best May ever, considering export figures. It also noted that the month had six fewer working days compared to last year.
Bolat said Türkiye has also made significant progress in exporting medium-high and high-tech products, reporting that the export share of such products reached 44% in the January-May period.
He stated that imports fell by 10.7% to $28.1 billion in May, with exports decreasing by $2.3 billion while imports dropped by $3.4 billion, thus improving the foreign trade deficit.
Bolat also noted that imports fell by 0.8% in the January-May period, explaining that the reduction in gold imports also played a role in this decline.
“There has also been some deceleration in automotive imports in the first five months. These acted as a brake on the increase in imports. On the other hand, our petroleum imports increased by nearly $2.5 billion,” he said.
Bolat stressed that a much clearer trade picture will emerge at the end of June as most of the calendar effects will disappear.
“On an annualized basis, we have $273.5 billion in exports, a modest increase of $250 million. However, we will make the real assessment when we complete the first half of the year,” he suggested.
He also informed that the annualized imports increased by 4.2% to $367.2 billion.
He also suggested that the trade deficit is close to the levels seen at the end of December last year, pointing out that at the end of the first five months, the annualized foreign trade gap has increased by only $1.45 billion.
Türkiye’s retail sales growth moderated in April to the lowest level in just over a year, following months of strong momentum, official data showed on Tuesday.
The volume of retail sales rose 11.4% year-over-year in April, said the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
This was much slower than the 21.7% surge in March, which was the fastest growth since February 2024. Moreover, the latest rate of expansion was the weakest since March 2025, when sales climbed 10.3%.
Meanwhile, total trade sales volume edged up 0.1% on an annual basis, the data showed.
Apart from retail sales, wholesale trade sales fell 3.3%, while the repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles volume decreased by 7.6% compared to the same period last year.
On a monthly basis, on the other hand, retail sales fell 1.7% in April while trade sales volume decreased 2.7%, as per TurkStat.
Annual sales growth in nonfood products, excluding fuel, slowed to 14.5% from 29.5%, while growth in food products improved to 7.6% from 7.4%. Sales of automotive fuel were 2.7% higher than a year earlier.
Data also showed that online retail grew 17.9% from last year, though slower than the 21.1% increase registered in March.
Solar electricity generation in Türkiye reached its highest level of the year on Monday, according to official figures.
The output reached 184,466 megawatts, the Turkish Electricity Transmission Corporation (TEIAŞ) data released on Tuesday showed.
Daily electricity consumption in Türkiye increased by around 18.2% on Monday compared to the previous day, totaling 972,052 megawatt-hours.
Electricity production amounted to 966,812 megawatt-hours, marking a rise of 16.9% compared to Sunday.
Electricity production from dam-based hydro plants accounted for around 25.7% of total generation, while solar and imported coal plants contributed 19% and 11.5%, respectively.
On Monday, the country’s electricity exports totaled 8,159 megawatt-hours, while imports amounted to 2,785 megawatt-hours.
Türkiye’s installed electricity capacity rose to 125,410 megawatts (MW) as of the end of April, driven by a rapid growth in renewable sources such as solar and wind.
Renewables accounted for 62.5% of that. Solar energy has been the fastest-growing segment, having reached 26,769 MW and accounting for 21.3% of total installed capacity.
Wind power increased to 15,075 MW, representing 12% of total capacity.
Türkiye aims to reach a combined 120,000 MW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2035, as is seeks to gradually reduce its carbon emissions to zero by 2053.
Housing prices in Türkiye extended their decline in real terms in May, despite continued growth in sales volumes, as elevated borrowing costs weigh on the property market.
Data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) showed on Tuesday that the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) rose 1.7% month-over-month in May and was up 24.5% from a year earlier in nominal terms. The annual nominal increase was the weakest since May 2020.
Adjusted for inflation, however, house prices fell 6.1% year-over-year, marking the 27th monthly real decline in the past 28 months.
Inflation in Türkiye edged up to 32.6% in May from 32.4% in April.
Analysts said the divergence between stronger sales volumes and weaker real prices reflected a market driven more by deferred demand than fresh speculative interest.
“Under normal circumstances, the recovery in transaction volumes would be expected to feed more strongly into prices. The acceleration in real declines was therefore somewhat surprising,” said Ali Hepşen, a professor at Istanbul University’s Faculty of Business Administration.
He said many buyers who postponed purchases in 2023 and 2024 had returned to the market, boosting sales without generating the same degree of upward pressure on prices.
Latest data showed nationwide house sales rose 2.6% from a year ago in April, while the four-month figure jumped 0.5%.
After recording a 1.4% annual real increase in January 2024, house prices slipped back into negative territory in February of that year and have remained below inflation ever since, with the exception of a marginal 0.3% real increase in November 2025.
The pace of real declines has accelerated in recent months, widening from 1.4% in December to 6.1% in May. The annual real decrease stood at 2.3% in January, 3.9% in February, 3.4% in March and 4.3% in April.
“High interest rates remain the main factor limiting prices,” Hepşen said. “Mortgage costs are still elevated, meaning cash buyers continue to dominate the market. This leads to more controlled price movements.”
He added that the current trend also represented a rebalancing after the sharp increases seen in previous years, when house prices had significantly outpaced inflation.
“Prices are increasing in nominal terms, but because the overall price level is rising more quickly, the decline continues in real terms.”
Last week, Türkiye’s central bank left its key interest rate at 37%, as expected, holding steady for a third consecutive meeting, as it monitors the inflation impact of the Iran war.
Since the conflict started at the end of February, the CBRT has halted an easing cycle that began in late 2024.
In its quarterly inflation report in May, the bank raised its end-2026 interim inflation target to 24% from 16%. It sees it falling to 15% in 2027 and to 9% by the end of 2028.
Hepşen said he did not expect a return to strong double-digit real price gains unless mortgage rates declined materially.
How long the decline in real housing prices will continue depends largely on the inflation and interest rate outlook, he added.
Under current conditions, Hepşen said it is likely that house prices will continue to underperform inflation at least until the end of 2026.
“Because today, credit demand, the main factor that would push housing prices higher, is still not strong enough,” he noted.
“We foresee that without a lasting decline in interest rates, the return to real price increases will remain limited.”
Real estate economist Ahmet Büyükduman said house prices and real interest rates historically moved in opposite directions.
“They (house prices and real interest rates) resemble two ends of a seesaw,” Büyükduman said. “When real interest rates rise, housing prices remain below inflation and decline in real terms.”
As long as the current monetary policy stance and high real interest rates remain in place, he said house price increases are likely to stay below inflation.
“I think the increase in housing prices will remain below inflation over the next year as well,” Büyükduman added.
Hyundai said on Tuesday it would strengthen its investment in the production of its upcoming IONIQ 3 electric vehicle in Türkiye with a new battery assembly facility.
The mass production of the IONIQ 3, which is expected to begin in August, will mark the South Korean carmaker’s first EV production in Europe.
It will also make it the first foreign automaker to manufacture battery-powered cars in Türkiye.
The company has allocated 55 million euros ($63.81 million) of its total 715 million euro investment package to the battery plant, Hyundai Motor Türkiye said in a statement.
The facility will assemble battery packs using automated systems in cooperation with Hyundai Mobis.
The investment is expected to create more than 300 jobs in its initial phase and contribute to the development of expertise needed by Türkiye’s electric vehicle sector, the statement read.
The company said it expects IONIQ 3 output to reach 27,000 units this year and exceed 40,000 vehicles in 2027.
The battery factory, built on a 30,000-square-meter (nearly 98,500-foot) site, will house 27 robots and feature automated packaging processes designed to minimize manual handling in production.
Nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) battery cells will be sourced from Hungary, while lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery packs for shorter-range variants will be supplied entirely from China.
Hyundai will become the second EV producer in Türkiye after homegrown brand Togg, and the first among foreign automakers.
Hyundai’s plant in northwestern city of Izmit has an annual production capacity of 245,000 vehicles and currently produces the i20 and Bayon models.
IONIQ 3 is scheduled to roll off production lines in August before going on sale in the domestic market in September with two battery and powertrain options.
Hyundai Motor Türkiye’s Sales, Marketing and After-Sales General Manager Murat Berkel called the new battery investment a “source of great pride.”
“This investment, which is highly significant both for our country and for the Turkish automotive industry, will contribute to our brand’s growth in Türkiye,” Berkel noted.
The Izmit facility, which is also Hyundai’s first overseas manufacturing plant, has produced 3.3 million vehicles since operations began in 1997.
Hyundai Motor Group plans to invest $90 billion globally by 2030, launching 21 fully electric and 13 hybrid models.
Germany on Tuesday formally rejected UniCredit’s offer for Commerzbank shares, citing a low price and concerns about what it called the Italian lender’s aggressive approach.
UniCredit’s initial offer period for Commerzbank shares is winding down, with both banks digging in their heels in the months-long battle for control of one of Germany’s most important lenders.
On Monday, the Italian bank hailed the fact that it had exceeded the 30% threshold it had set for this takeover bid. The Milan-based lender launched its bid, valued at 35 billion euros ($40.6 billion), in early May to gain control of its German rival and cement its status as a European heavyweight.
The German government holds a 12% stake in Commerzbank acquired in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis and has long objected to UniCredit’s campaign for a tie-up.
“Accepting the offer was already not an option from a financial point of view, as it does not include an appropriate premium on the current share price of Commerzbank’s shares,” the country’s finance agency said on Tuesday.
Despite Berlin’s position, UniCredit could still win control of the German bank, but the government’s stake gives it seats on Commerzbank’s supervisory board, which appoints management and helps oversee its strategy.
Financial Market Stabilization Fund, which manages the government’s holdings, also said that it supported Commerzbank’s independence, and noted that the bank played a critical role in financing medium-sized Mittelstand companies and was an integral player in Frankfurt, the nation’s financial hub.
“Both must continue to be ensured in the future,” it said.
Separately, Frankfurt prosecutors on Tuesday confirmed that they had begun a preliminary investigation into “possible market manipulation” related to the offer, without providing details.
It follows a criminal complaint filed by Commerzbank’s workers’ council that reached prosecutors on Sunday. The employee group had communicated to staff that they would file the complaint against unspecified persons amid questions about UniCredit’s acquisition of Commerzbank shares at a below-market rate.
UniCredit said in a statement that it was aware of the matter and that the prosecutors’ response was “in line with protocol when such complaints are filed.”
In Tuesday’s trading, Commerzbank shares slipped below the price implied by UniCredit’s buyout offer, after trading consistently above that level since the bid was launched and rendering Italian bank’s offer relatively unattractive.
Shares in Commerzbank were trading at 36.53 euros by 0812 GMT, while those of UniCredit were at 76.97 euros. With an exchange ratio of 0.485 new UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share tendered, the Italian bank’s bid values Commerzbank at 37.33 euros a share.
The offer ends on Tuesday but will extend for a further 15 days from June 20.
If the offer succeeds and is approved by the European Central Bank (ECB), it should mainly allow UniCredit to gradually increase its stake in Commerzbank and merge it with its German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank.
In particular, the Milan-based bank is proposing to cut back Commerzbank’s international network, deemed too complex and inefficient, and refocus the bank on its activities in Germany.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in May the bid was destroying “trust” in Germany’s second-largest private bank.
Seeking to fend off the advances, Commerzbank’s CEO Bettina Orlopp unveiled a strategic plan to strengthen profitability through 2030, including job cuts to become leaner and more attractive to shareholders.
UniCredit has meanwhile asserted that by surpassing the 30% threshold of voting rights, it should be allowed to appoint all of the shareholder representatives to the supervisory board, where two representatives of the German state currently sit.
Orlopp has contested that position, pointing to an agreement with Berlin that guarantees Commerzbank the power to propose the state’s representatives to the board.
Germany’s Economy and Energy Minister Katherina Reiche is expected to visit Türkiye later this week for high-level talks on strengthening trade and energy cooperation, according to her ministry on Monday.
“Türkiye is a strategically important partner for Germany,” ministry spokesperson Susanne Ungrad told reporters in Berlin.
“The visit on Thursday and Friday will focus on the German-Turkish economic and energy partnership,” she said.
Reiche is scheduled to attend meetings of the Joint Economic and Trade Commission (JETCO) and the German-Turkish Energy Forum, both long-standing platforms for deepening bilateral ties.
She will also hold direct talks with Turkish ministerial counterparts, accompanied by around 30 business leaders from key economic and energy sectors.
Germany is one of Türkiye’s largest economic partners and remained its top export destination in 2025.
Supported by more than 8,000 companies with German capital that are registered and active in the country, bilateral trade exceeded $52 billion last year.
During German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Ankara in October 2025, the two countries announced their joint ambition to increase bilateral trade to over $60 billion in the near future.
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