Economy
Turkish central bank keeps key policy rate unchanged again
Türkiye’s central bank held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37% on Wednesday, maintaining its cautious stance for the second straight month amid pricing pressures due to the Middle East conflict.
In March, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) halted an easing cycle, citing market fallout from the Iran war that it said could affect inflation.
On Wednesday, the bank also left its overnight lending and borrowing rates unchanged at 40% and 35.5%, respectively.
Before the regional conflict began shifting expectations, the CBRT had been expected to continue a rate-cutting cycle that began in late 2024.
The Iran war sent energy prices soaring, posing a challenge for import-heavy economies like Türkiye, where inflation still eased to 30.87% last month. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump extended the war cease-fire indefinitely.
In a statement following Wednesday’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the CBRT said the underlying trend of inflation declined in March, while leading indicators suggest a slight increase in April.
The CBRT said energy prices “remain elevated and exhibit notable volatility” amid geopolitical developments and the resulting uncertainties.
“The effects of these developments and domestic energy prices on the inflation outlook through the cost channel and economic activity are being closely monitored,” the statement read.
Indicators point to a slowdown in economic activity, but the bank said “potential second-round effects of recent developments on the inflation outlook will be of importance.”
The tight monetary policy stance, it said, will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate and expectation channels.
The cease-fire allowed the central bank “to refrain from tightening,” William Jackson, economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
“So long as energy prices don’t spike again, we think the CBRT will opt to leave interest rates on hold for at least a few more months,” Jackson said.
The bank said the policy rate would be determined by taking into account realized and expected inflation and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with the interim targets.
“Monetary policy decisions are made prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook,” the statement said.
The CBRT in February kept its end-2026 interim inflation target at 16% but lifted its forecast range to 15%-21% from 13%-19% previously.
Earlier on Wednesday, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said recent developments will impact Turkish inflation but the downward trend will not change.
Şimşek also said the current account deficit was expected to widen further this year due to the oil price shock, but that this was temporary.
The central bank reiterated the policy stance would be tightened in case of a “significant and persistent deterioration” in the inflation outlook, which can also be driven by the recent developments.
“The Committee reiterated that it remains highly attentive to upside risks on inflation,” the bank said.
The CBRT stands ready to support monetary transmission mechanism via additional macroprudential measures in case of unanticipated developments in credit and deposit markets, it added.
“Liquidity conditions will continue to be closely monitored and liquidity management tools will continue to be used effectively.”
Analysts at the Dutch financial giant ING said the rate decision implies an intention to move toward normalization as the bank does not see a need to introduce additional tightening … or to gain additional flexibility by adjusting the upper band of the interest rate corridor.
In the near term, they expect the bank to remain in a wait‑and‑see mode before deciding whether to reduce the effective cost of funding back toward the policy rate.
U.S. President Donald Trump issued an order for a trade embargo on Spain on Wednesday, asking Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “cut off all trade … including visits” with the country amid tensions over defense spending.
The Treasury, Commerce Department and U.S. Trade Representative’s office will work to present Trump with “a menu of Spanish products that may be embargoed in the coming days,” a U.S. official told Reuters. The comments suggest a trade ban could be partial.
Here is a look at Trump’s options to halt trade with Spain and the implications of such a move.
A trade embargo?
Trade lawyers say that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) remains available for Trump to impose a trade embargo or economic sanctions against a country despite the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in February against Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose tariffs.
To invoke IEEPA, Trump must declare a national emergency over an “unusual or extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security, foreign policy, or the economy. The law has been widely used to restrict commerce with Iran, Russia and North Korea and to block dollar-based dealings by thousands of companies, individuals and other entities deemed terrorism or national security threats.
Peter Shane, a New York University law professor, said it was “hard to see” how one of 32 NATO countries missing a peacetime defense spending target by three percentage points of GDP constitutes such an emergency for the United States.
But the Supreme Court did not pass judgment on the nature of Trump’s tariff emergency, leaving his ability to declare a national emergency “undisturbed,” said Mayur Patel, a former U.S. Senate Finance Committee Republican trade counsel.
“IEEPA would allow Trump to do an embargo,” said Patel, now a trade partner with Hogan Lovells in Washington, even if it is later challenged in court.
How much affect?
Total two-way goods trade topped $47.9 billion in 2025 according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Add in services, including travel, and the total grows to $74.5 billion, according to Commerce Department Bureau of Economic Analysis data, making Spain the 23rd largest overall U.S. trading partner.
The U.S. sells more goods to Spain than it buys, exporting $26.6 billion in goods to the country in 2025 and importing $21.35 billion for a U.S. trade surplus of $5.25 billion.
Top U.S. goods import categories from Spain based on Census Bureau data are pharmaceuticals, electrical transformers and power converters, personal care products, petroleum products, glazed ceramics and olive oil. Top U.S. exports to Spain are pharmaceuticals, crude oil, civilian aircraft and corn.
An embargo also could disrupt bilateral investment. Spanish companies have invested €97.2 billion ($111 billion) in the U.S., making it their largest investment destination worldwide, according to Eurostat data cited by the American Chamber of Commerce in Spain.
The U.S. is Spain’s largest foreign investor, with over €116 billion ($132.4 billion) in productive capital investment employing around 200,000 people nationwide.
Travel to and from Spain
It’s unclear how Trump might restrict Spaniards’ travel to the U.S., where their national soccer team plays a World Cup match on Friday. But his administration last year banned citizens from more than 30 countries from entering the U.S., including tourists, students and business travelers, citing security concerns.
Trump also did not indicate whether a travel ban would apply to outbound visitors to Spain, whose spending there constitutes a services import to the U.S.
According to Spain’s national statistics agency INE, about 4.45 million Americans visited Spain for more than a day in 2025, a 4.3% increase from 2024. Americans made up about 4.6% of Spain’s total 96.8 million visitors in 2026, the sixth largest source country after Britain, France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.
But according to Bank of Spain data, travelers from the U.S. were Spain’s fourth-largest source of tourism revenue at €6.15 billion in 2024. The bank said Americans tend to stay longer and spend more per trip than other tourists.
What are the options?
Patel said that under IEEPA, Trump could impose a selective embargo, as he and his predecessor Joe Biden have done against Russia, allowing in some goods deemed essential. In Russia’s case these include enriched uranium, fertilizers and palladium.
Trump has previously exempted aircraft parts from his tariffs, so jet engine turbine components from Spain’s ITP Aero used by General Electric and RTX’s Pratt & Whitney could be candidates. Trump also has other tools to impose tariffs or other retaliatory trade measures, including Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, an unfair trade practices statute that his administration is now proposing for tariffs related to forced labor on goods from 60 trading partners including the EU.
In addition, Trump has a Cold War-era trade law, Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, that he has used to protect autos, steel, aluminum and other sectors deemed important to national security.
A complicating factor in any potential trade action against Spain is that the EU sets trade policy for its member countries and requires common treatment across the bloc. But the U.S. has previously threatened individual EU countries with tariffs over their digital services taxes.
The Commerce Department also could target certain Spanish imports with anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duty investigations. Trump’s first administration, at the behest of olive producers in California, imposed a 30% anti-dumping tariff on Spanish black olives under the Tariff Act of 1930, with a separate Commerce investigation ruling that they benefited from unfair subsidies.
Previous threats
The first threat of trade punishment came in October 2025, when Trump said he “may” punish Spain with tariffs for refusing at a NATO summit in The Hague four months earlier to commit to raising defense spending to 5% of national output. In March this year he went further, ordering Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to begin investigations to embargo all products from Spain. To date, no such investigations have been disclosed on the Federal Register.
Spanish contribution
Spanish core defense expenditure is expected to reach €35.41 billion in 2026 ($40.4 billion), equivalent to 2% of its GDP, according to NATO’s latest estimates, up from €11.17 billion ($12.8 billion) when Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez took office in 2018.
The country was NATO’s seventh-largest defense spender in absolute terms in 2025, according to Spanish government officials citing NATO data. It has mobilised a total of €3.795 billion in support for Ukraine since 2022.
Türkiye’s drone powerhouse on Tuesday called for deeper industrial partnerships among NATO members to accelerate the development and production of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), arguing that cooperation would be more effective than duplicating capabilities across the alliance.
Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Baykar CEO Haluk Bayraktar said the growing demand for drones in modern warfare requires shorter development cycles, faster production and greater manufacturing capacity.
Bayraktar added that while large defense companies such as Baykar can invest ahead of demand, startups require stronger market signals and financing to build manufacturing capacity.
“In our approach in Türkiye, for large-scale companies like ours, we do not even wait for demand to emerge to build capacity,” he said. “What we see on the ground shows that there is a major need for these technologies.”
However, when it comes to new ventures and startups, Bayraktar said it’s crucial for them to build this capacity themselves to meet the demand, which amounts to billions of dollars.
Baykar is the largest exporter of UAVs, he said, noting that the company has made major investments over the past 25 years in platforms ranging from unmanned combat aircraft to strategic-class systems.
It currently exports to 40 countries, including several NATO members, but wants to deepen cooperation within the alliance, according to the chief executive.
Bayraktar highlighted Baykar’s joint venture with Italy’s Leonardo, Leonardo Baykar Aerospace Systems (LBA Systems), as a model for future cooperation.
“It is much faster to cooperate instead of trying to invent everything from scratch or compete,” he said. “We have our platforms and systems. Leonardo has very strong payloads, radars, electronic systems and different mission payloads.
“It is necessary to create synergy by bringing the best together and combining these capabilities. The main point should be to combine these strengths instead of developing everything from zero.”
Bayraktar said the partnership is designed to develop new technologies jointly rather than transfer existing intellectual property.
“Technology sharing can of course happen, but the issue is not sharing intellectual property,” he said. “Under joint ventures, the aim is to create new intellectual property on the existing intellectual property of the parties and build on current capabilities.”
He said building such capabilities from scratch in another country could take decades, while cooperation could allow allies to start developing advanced technology immediately and gain an edge.
FPV capacity
Bayraktar said NATO includes both large and small countries, adding that sharing capabilities and creating synergy would be more efficient than trying to establish the same capacity everywhere from scratch.
He also said different production and cooperation models are needed depending on the type of UAV.
“UAVs are increasingly becoming part of our lives and are now among the main elements of war environments,” he said. “There is demand, there is necessity. What we see on the ground clearly shows that these technologies are greatly needed.”
He said UAVs include combat aircraft-class systems, strategic-class platforms and smaller drones, adding that every country should build capacity in first-person view (FPV) drones.
“These are almost like ammunition; every country needs a bullet manufacturer,” he said. “But for combat aircraft-class UAVs, alliances are needed to build this capability. I believe this is much more beneficial.”
Bayraktar said Türkiye’s defense industry has expanded dramatically over the past two decades, growing from 17 companies to more than 3,000, while annual defense exports have risen from $250 million in 2002 to more than $10 billion today.
“We now make in one week the defense exports that were $250 million at that time. Our weekly defense exports have reached around $450 million,” he added.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth canceled a meeting that had been scheduled for Wednesday to discuss the possible sale of F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a report said.
Hegseth, who is attending the NATO summit in Türkiye along with U.S. President Donald Trump, had also been scheduled to meet Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz on a trip that was also expected to focus on Iran, Reuters said, citing a source.
The visit would have come a day after Trump announced he would lift U.S. sanctions imposed on Ankara over its 2019 purchase of Russian air defense missiles, and he signaled a willingness to sell the NATO ally F-35 fighter jets.
Türkiye has long criticized Israeli genocidal operations in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and it has repeatedly accused Israel of trying to undermine the U.S.-Iran cease-fire deal mediated by Pakistan.
Trump said on Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding signed to end the conflict that the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran was “over” and that he didn’t want to engage with Tehran.
Netanyahu had on Monday urged the U.S. not to sell the jets to Türkiye, claiming it would “upset the power balance” in the region.
Türkiye dismissed his remarks, saying “Netanyahu and his partners in crime deliberately distort any criticism directed at them and seek to divert attention through a systematic propaganda effort.”
In 2019, the U.S. removed Türkiye from the F-35 program, where Ankara was also a production partner, following its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system.
Washington claimed the system would endanger the jets and is incompatible with NATO systems, while Ankara repeatedly said there is no conflict between the two and proposed a commission to study the issue.
Türkiye also said it fulfilled its obligations on the F-35s and that its suspension broke the rules. Ankara maintains that the jets could strengthen not only Türkiye but also NATO.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday modestly downgraded its outlook for the world economy this year, citing the energy shock caused by the Iran war. But the fallout from the conflict is being partially offset by booming investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies.
The IMF now expects the global economy to expand by a sluggish 3% in 2026, down from 3.5% last year and from the 3.1% it had forecast for this year back in April, according to its latest World Economic Outlook report.
The fund expects worldwide growth to rebound to 3.4% next year.
Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks Feb. 28 by shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas passes.
Energy prices soared, squeezing businesses and consumers. The IMF now expects oil prices to be up nearly 32% this year and for global consumer prices overall to increase 4.7% in 2026. That would be up from 4.1% in 2025 and would mean that two years of progress against inflation has stalled.
The IMF forecasts assume that the Strait of Hormuz reopens later this month – even though U.S. strikes on Iran resumed and President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that a cease-fire with Iran was over. They also assume that commerce through the strait returns to normal by next March.
Energy shock
“The world economy has weathered the shock from the war better than feared,” Petya Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research department, told reporters Wednesday.
The economic damage from the energy shock has been limited partly because countries could draw on existing oil stockpiles and because oil-exporting countries outside the Persian Gulf stepped up production.
Countries that produce and export their own energy and that benefit from AI investment are insulated from the war’s economic damage. Among them is the United States.
The IMF expects the U.S. economy – the world’s largest – to grow a solid 2.3% this year, up from 2.1% in 2025 and unchanged from the April forecast.
President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax cuts, big gains in productivity and a strong stock market are also giving the American economy a lift.
The 21 European countries that share the euro currency, hit hard by higher energy prices, are collectively forecast to grow just 0.9% this year, down from 1.4% in 2025.
China, the world’s No. 2 economy, is expected to expand 4.6% this year, down from 5% in 2026 but a bit faster than the IMF had expected in April.
Weighed down by higher energy prices and a property market collapse, the Chinese economy is getting offsetting help from public works spending, a surge in high-tech manufacturing and booming exports.
Türkiye outlook
In Türkiye, the IMF sees the economy growing by 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.4% projected in April.
That marks the second downward revision this year after it had already cut Türkiye’s forecast from 4.2% in its January outlook.
The IMF said it now expects Türkiye’s economy to grow 3.6% in 2027, slightly higher than the 3.5% forecast published in April.
The downgrade follows an earlier reduction in April, when the IMF cited weaker-than-expected economic activity and the impact of higher energy prices.
India is once again forecast to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy, advancing at a 6.4% clip, down from a sizzling 7.7% last year, on strong consumer spending.
Air Canada on Wednesday appointed a new CEO to succeed Michael Rousseau, who announced his retirement after coming under criticism over his failure to issue condolences both in English and French after a fatal airport disaster.
Canada’s national carrier said Anko Van der Werff, currently the chief executive at Scandinavian Airlines (SAS), would take charge by the end of January 2027.
Van der Werff was chosen following “a comprehensive global search,” Air Canada said.
“The search considered a number of performance criteria, including the ability to communicate in French,” it added.
The incoming boss, who will also serve as president and sit on Air Canada’s board, said he was “mindful of the importance of serving Canadians in both official languages.”
Rousseau had sparked controversy by issuing an English-only video message to express condolences after a deadly collision late on March 22 between an Air Canada jet and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia Airport.
Canada has two official languages – English and French – and one of the pilots killed in the accident was from French-speaking Quebec.
Rousseau had issued an apology over his English-only message, regretting that he couldn’t express himself in French “despite many lessons over several years.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney – whose occasionally halting French was discussed when he entered politics last year – also said at the time that he was “disappointed” by Rousseau’s unilingual message.
Air Canada is the country’s largest airline and is headquartered in Montreal, Quebec – Canada’s traditionally French-speaking province. The company is required to offer services in both languages.
Work is continuing with Türkiye and Italy regarding the SAMP-T air defense system, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Wednesday.
“We have work underway on a Franco-Italian basis, along with Turkey, which is technical work and which is continuing,” said Macron at the NATO summit in Ankara.
His remarks followed reports suggesting France is willing to consider a possible sale of SAMP-T to Türkiye following years of opposition, clearing the way for more substantive talks with Ankara.
The shift in position followed talks between French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni during a summit on June 25.
Earlier on Wednesday, Macron met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for talks on bilateral ties and regional and global developments, Türkiye’s Communications Directorate said.
During the meeting, Erdoğan said the time had come for Türkiye and France to raise their mutual trade targets, adding that Ankara would continue efforts to advance cooperation “in every field.”
Erdoğan also stressed the importance of strengthening NATO’s European pillar to preserve the “Transatlantic Bond” among allies, saying this could be achieved “without eroding our alliance ties and without causing unnecessary duplication.”
He added that Türkiye would support the EU’s defense initiatives on the basis of those principles.
Last week, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler said Türkiye was “evaluating all options” to boost its air defenses, including the potential purchase of Patriot systems from Washington or SAMP-T systems.
Güler said Ankara remained open to cooperation involving technology transfer and joint production. Technical and political talks with the relevant countries are taking place “from time to time,” he added.
Türkiye, France and Italy launched cooperation on a possible long-range air-defense program in 2017 to 2018, including studies into co-development and co-production.
However, the project stalled as ties between Ankara and Paris deteriorated over Syria, Libya and disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean involving Greece and Greek Cyprus.
The SAMP-T, also known as Mamba, is produced by the Franco-Italian Eurosam consortium, bringing together MBDA France, MBDA Italy and Thales.
The system can track dozens of targets simultaneously, intercept multiple threats at once and is the only European-made system that claims to be able to intercept ballistic missiles.
Often described as Europe’s closest counterpart to the U.S. Patriot system, it divides analysts on its efficiency, who point to its lack of combat use over the years.
Türkiye has NATO’s second-largest army and has for years been ramping up investments as it seeks to have its own fully fledged missile defenses. It is meanwhile producing components for its integrated, multilayered “Steel Dome” air defense system.
Beyond Paris and Rome, the SAMP-T has only been exported to Singapore, although it has been transferred to Ukraine in recent years and France deployed it to help the United Arab Emirates (UAE) defend itself against Iranian missile attacks this year.
Italy sent the system to Türkiye in mid-June as part of NATO defense planning.
Any deal would likely center around the new generation of the system, which is being rolled out to the French and Italian militaries.
While Italy has long been in favor of sharing the SAMP-T with Türkiye to deepen defense industry cooperation, Turkish officials have for years privately and publicly regarded France as the principal political obstacle to the program.
Momentum has returned over the past year as Ankara has intensified efforts to strengthen its missile defense capabilities amid regional instability and NATO allies have reassessed defense cooperation and capability needs.
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